How much difference could Robles make in return to Nats?

HOUSTON – It seems hard to believe given his offensive struggles the last three seasons, but Victor Robles’ pending return should be a real boon to the Nationals’ offensive fortunes.

Robles, out since May 7 with a back injury, appears to be in the final stages of a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester and could be activated this weekend, perhaps even in time for tonight’s series opener against the Marlins at Nationals Park.

Will the 26-year-old center fielder with a career .670 OPS really make much positive difference at the plate? If he performs anything like he did prior to suffering the injury while sliding into second base in Arizona, yes.

Robles was making some real strides through the season’s first month-plus. It’s not just his .292 batting average and .388 on-base percentage, impressive as those are. It’s his approach at the plate, a vast improvement from 2020-22.

Robles has always been one of the freest swingers in baseball, often to his detriment. His strikeout rate the last three seasons was a lofty 25.1 percent, his walk rate a scant 6.1 percent that plummeted to 4.2 percent in 2022.

Now look at those numbers so far in 2023: Robles is striking out only 13.1 percent of the time while walking 9.4 percent of time. That’s dramatic improvement in both departments.

He still doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, and his line drive rate has actually gone down to 20.3 percent. But he is keeping his front shoulder closed, laying off breaking balls out of the strike zone and hitting pitches on the outside corner to right field at last. From 2020-23, only 15.7 percent of Robles’ batted balls went to the opposite field. So far this season, he’s done it 24.1 percent of the time.

So, Robles’ return should make a real difference for the Nationals, who haven’t received nearly that kind of production from Alex Call.

Call, thrust into the everyday center field job in Robles’ absence, has been in a sustained funk at the plate. Since May 7, he’s batting a paltry .202 with a .532 OPS. For the season, he’s batting .209 with a .590 OPS. How low are his power numbers? Call’s .291 slugging percentage ranks 173rd out of 174 major leaguers who have taken at least 200 plate appearances this season, ahead of only the Marlins’ Jean Segura (.234).

Now, Call has provided quality defense in center field for more than a month now, but Robles should be just as solid out there, if not more so, when he returns.

The question then becomes this: Who is dropped from the Nationals’ 26-man roster when Robles is activated?

Call’s offensive struggles certainly make him a prime candidate for demotion to Triple-A. But has Stone Garrett clearly earned the right to stay ahead of the guy who beat him out for the fourth outfielder’s job in spring training?

Offensively, yes, Garrett has outperformed Call. In roughly half as many plate appearances, he’s batting .263/.309/.386. His OPS-plus of 103 is better than league average and only one point worse than Joey Meneses, who bats third every day for this team.

Defensively, Call seems like the clearly superior player, though at the moment both have 3 Defensive Runs Saved at their respective regular positions (Call in center field, Garrett in left).

This really boils down to a question of what the Nationals need right now. Is defense and the ability to play center field more important? If so, Call should stay. But if the threat of power as a right-handed platoon with Corey Dickerson in left field is the priority, Garrett is the obvious choice.

Couldn’t the Nats just keep both guys and instead part ways with utility infielder Michael Chavis, who hardly ever plays? Sure, they could. But that would leave Davey Martinez with only one backup infielder in Ildemaro Vargas. And as we saw during Wednesday night’s wild loss, sometimes you do need two backup infielders in the same game.

Maybe the situation changes if Robles struggles upon his return to rediscover his pre-injury form at the plate. But unless and until that happens, the Nationals have to decide what they need most out of their fourth outfielder.