What kind of improvement will get the Nats from 71 to 81 wins?

The 2023 Nationals clearly were a better team than the 2022 Nationals were, and you don’t have to dig real deep for the confirmation of that. Any team that improved by 16 wins, from 55 to 71, did something right.

Ask those in charge of the organization about the improvement, though, and they’re quick to point out the lack of total satisfaction with the end result, no matter how much better it was than the previous year.

“We’re not proud of 71 wins, believe me,” general manager Mike Rizzo said earlier this month. “It was a step forward, and more importantly, our young players made progress. … (But) our goal is never to win 71 games. Our goal is to win a division, to win a world championship. And I feel that we took a step in the right direction last year toward doing that.”

How then does a team take the next step? How does a 71-win team become a winning team?

“We’re going to try and facilitate another roster that allows us to take another step forward and get into the action with a terrific division that we have to deal with,” Rizzo said. “We understand the challenges in front of us, and I think we’re a capable group. You’ve seen in the past what we’ve done, and I think that we’re going to be able to do it in the future.”

It’s not the first time – and it won’t be the last time – Rizzo references the Nationals’ previous ascension from one of the sport’s worst teams to one of its best. The comparisons are inevitable.

The 2009 Nats bottomed out with 59 wins. The 2010 team improved by 10 wins to finish with 69. Then 2011 team improved by 11 wins to reach 80. And then the 2012 took off, going 98-64 to win the first of four division titles in six years.

What, though, defined those incremental steps? Specifically, how did they make the two biggest leaps from 2010 to 2012?

Look back at some year-end figures for those teams and you can find some clear changes.

The Nationals got younger each season. The average age of their position players went from 29.2 to 28.5 to 27.2. The average age of their pitchers went from 28.3 to 27.9 to 26.8. Young talent replaced aging stopgaps.

Offensive improvement took a bit longer to occur. The Nats ranked 14th in the National League in runs and 11th in OPS in 2010. One year later, they ranked 12th in both categories. It wasn’t until 2012 that they began to boast a top lineup, ranking fifth in the NL in runs and fourth in OPS.

The biggest changes from 2010-11 were in pitching and defense. The staff’s ERA went from 11th to sixth in the NL, its WHIP from 11th to eighth. And after ranking last in errors in 2010, the Nats ranked ninth the following season while improving from 10th to eighth in Fielding Runs.

By the time 2012 rolled around, the Nationals had the best pitching staff in the league, leading the way in both ERA and WHIP. They ranked fourth in errors and remained in the middle of the pack in Fielding Runs.

So how did the Nationals get from 69 to 98 wins in two years? Improvement in all facets, but especially pitching.

Given their 16-game improvement over the last year, it stands to reason we’ll see some similar trends, right? Not necessarily.

The Nats lineup was about the same each of the last two seasons, ranking either 12th or 13th in the NL each year in both runs and OPS. A similar story unfolded on the pitching side, the team ended each of the last two seasons ranked 14th in both ERA and WHIP.

What did improve? Defense. The Nationals moved up from 14th to ninth in errors, from 14th to eighth in Fielding Runs.

They also got younger on both sides of the ball, the average age of position players dropping from 28.8 to 26.9 and of pitchers from 29.7 to 28.0.

With several top prospects due to arrive in 2024, those average ages should drop again. But ultimately the Nats’ chances of improving from 71 to 81 or more wins hinges on more significant improvement in offense and pitching, plus continued improvement in the field.

By the end of next season, it would be nice to see some aspect of this team rank in the top half of the NL in some category of significance. If that happens, the team’s record might just rank in the top half as well for the first time since 2019.