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With five of their final six series coming against sub-.500 clubs, the Nationals haven’t really had a chance to play any meaningful baseball down the stretch of the season. With one exception: This weekend’s series in New York.
The Mets are the only opponent on the Nats’ late-September schedule that both owns a winning record and is still fighting for a postseason berth. New York enters the day holding a slim, 2-game lead over the Diamondbacks and Reds (and possibly the Giants, pending the outcome of their game late Thursday night against the Dodgers) with nine to play.
Which means the Nationals have a real opportunity to make a difference this weekend, whether hurting or helping the Mets’ chances.
Given how poorly they played earlier this week against a fourth-place Braves team, there’s little reason to think they’re going to flip the switch and perform better against a much better opponent now. But in a strange twist to this most frustrating 2025 season, some of their best performances actually have come against better competition.
The Nats have a winning head-to-head record this year against seven opposing teams. And four of them are playoff contenders: the Tigers, Mariners, Diamondbacks and Reds. They’ve also won individual series along the way against the Dodgers, Mets, Cubs and Giants.
On the flip side of the equation, the Nationals lost their season series against sub-.500 opponents like the Braves, Athletics, Royals, Marlins, Pirates, Rays and even Rockies.
We’ll see how well they show up (or don’t show up) this weekend at Citi Field, but it’s worth noting that interim manager Miguel Cairo made a rotation decision that suggests he wanted to use his best available starters for this series.
The Nats’ listed starters this weekend are Andrew Alvarez in tonight’s opener, Cade Cavalli on Saturday and Jake Irvin on Sunday. Alvarez and Cavalli, obviously, are highly inexperienced, but each has pitched well in limited recent opportunities. And though Irvin is slogging his way to the finish line of a miserable season on a personal level, he does have a track record of success against the Mets. Combine his three starts last season and first one this season against New York, and the right-hander posted a 2.51 ERA. His last two starts against them haven’t gone nearly as well (10 runs over 11 innings), but perhaps he can recapture some of that old magic when he takes the mound Sunday afternoon.
Irvin, it should be noted, will be starting the series finale over Mitchell Parker, whose rotation turn actually falls on Sunday. We don’t know yet when Parker (who has a league-worst 5.85 ERA) will next pitch, but there’s ample reason for Cairo to make sure it’s not against the Mets. In three previous starts against them, the left-hander owns a gaudy 9.82 ERA.
We will hopefully learn more from Cairo later today about the pitching plan for the remainder of the season. The Nationals currently have six starters on the active roster, which they needed because of Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Braves. They could stick with all six guys, slotting Parker back in next week in Atlanta. Or they could move the lefty to the bullpen, or perhaps shut him down altogether, if they decide to pare back to a five-man rotation down the stretch.
