Random take Tuesday

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He didn’t get anything going against the Orioles in a three-game series near the end of the year, but Aaron Judge has hammered Baltimore pitching so much over the years that if he leaves the Yankees, no one in Birdland will shed a tear.

Elation might be the prevailing emotion.

Before Birdland gets too excited about that prospect, for one, Judge might not leave. For two, the Nationals won the World Series the year after Bryce Harper left via free agency. The Astros, who once had George Springer, Carlos Correa and Gerrit Cole on their team, are in another World Series without that trio.

It’s still a team game. Stars are important, but good teams can win even as great players move on.

But seeing Judge, a free agent, sign with a National League team, would be welcoming news in Birdland. In the next-to-last series of the 2022 regular season, with Judge trying to hit his 62nd homer to set an AL record, the Orioles pitched Judge tough, and he went 1-for-7 with five walks and six strikeouts in the series. Amid much whining from New York fans and media that they dared to not throw him a meatball.

Opposing scout offers Kyle Schwarber comp on Heston Kjerstad

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When rosters were revealed last month for every team in the Arizona Fall League, Heston Kjerstad led a group of seven Orioles assigned to the Scottsdale Scorpions. He was the biggest name as the second-overall selection in the 2020 draft. He was the biggest deal because, quite simply, everything Kjerstad does warrants our attention.

The draft status, the myocarditis diagnosis, the hamstring injury in March that further delayed his professional debut. The questions about whether Kjerstad would be able to lead a normal, healthy life. Forget baseball for a moment.

But just for a moment.

It always comes back to the game when a player chosen in the first round threatens to be – cruel word alert – a “bust.” But the Orioles weren’t giving up on Kjerstad and he certainly didn’t give up on himself. His attitude remained remarkably positive, and he understood and appreciated the organization’s careful handling of him.

You don’t play around with inflammation of a heart muscle. And on a much smaller scale, you don’t rush the return from a hamstring strain.

There are plenty of defensive metrics, making sense of them is the problem

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There are some aspects of baseball not up for an argument or debate. It’s simple math and right there in front of our eyes on the stat sheets to see which players won batting titles in each league, or led the league in homers, doubles or saves for instance. It’s clear which team wins the World Series as they decide that on the field.

But some honors are very subjective and up for a vote. And a debate. Like MVP and Cy Young for instance and defensive awards, some of which came out this week.

At this point in baseball we probably have more defensive stats than ever but in my humble opinion, we still struggle as a sport to quantify defense and sometimes there is no consensus about defense. And that is even when intelligent eyes are doing the viewing. And voting.

The finalists were recently announced for Gold Gloves in the American League and the Orioles' Jorge Mateo was not among them at shortstop in the AL. The three finalists were Boston’s Xander Bogaerts, Minnesota’s Carlos Correa and Houston’s Jeremy Peña.

In one advanced metric, Defensive Runs Saved, Mateo ranked ahead of two of the three AL shortstop finalists. While Peña tied for the MLB lead with 15 DRS at short (tied with Miami’s Miguel Rojas), Mateo was next, third in MLB, with 14 DRS. Bogaerts with 4 DRS ranked 11th and Correa at 3 DRS was 12th in the majors.

Orioles outright Aramis Garcia to Triple-A Norfolk

The Orioles have made the following roster moves:

  • Outrighted C Aramis Garcia to Triple-A Norfolk.
  • Reinstated RHP Chris Ellis from the 60-day Injured List and outrighted him to Triple-A Norfolk.

The 40-man roster is at 39 players.

Revisting notes on Hyde, the bullpen and Lyles

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Today, I'm taking a look back at some recent stories and topics that appeared in this space while discussing some interesting potential O's developments. Such as ...

* What to do with right-hander Jordan Lyles and his 2023 team option for $11 million?

Most seem to be in favor of a return of Lyles, who pitched decently enough for the Orioles and was huge in the clubhouse.

Last season over 32 starts and 179 innings, Lyles went 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He allowed 26 homers with 52 walks and 144 strikeouts. His WHIP was 1.385 and he walked 2.6 per nine innings and fanned 7.2. His numbers were similar to 2021 in many respects, except his ERA went down from 5.15 and his homer rate of 1.3 fell from 1.9.

It is well documented that Lyles was a real leader for the pitching staff, and he embraced and enjoyed the role. Right-hander Tyler Wells discussed Lyles’ leadership abilities.

Returning to reflections on the Orioles' 2022 season

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I think The Supremes said it best when they sang, “Reflections of, the way the season used to be.”

Or something close to that.

My reflections are continuing into late October, after the Orioles took their fans on a thrill ride until finally running out of gas.

I’ve already noted how Matt Harvey never had his contract selected from Triple-A Norfolk, Gunnar Henderson earned a promotion despite his age, Yusniel Diaz stayed only for a cup of coffee, Rougned Odor lasted into September, we never saw Robert Neustrom, DJ Stewart didn’t make it back to the Orioles after three games to begin the season, Jorge Mateo was exclusively a shortstop, Bryan Baker stuck for the entire season, Nick Vespi will never give up another Triple-A run, Joey Krehbiel disappeared after almost going wire-to-wire, Terrin Vavra could wear many hats next season, Jacob Nottingham didn’t get back to the majors, César Prieto’s 2022 ceiling was Double-A, we don’t know how the Orioles view Mike Baumann, and Chris Ellis’ second chance with the Orioles was much worse than the first.

Here are two more:

A few past and present World Series/postseason notes

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With the start of the World Series last night, I found myself playing around with the Stathead feature on Baseball-Reference.com yesterday checking some vary random facts and notes.

Such as which Oriole played in the most postseason games wearing the Orange and Black only? The Oriole to play the most postseason games for Baltimore was Mark Belanger, who was in 43 such games. Brooks Robinson comes next at 39 and Paul Blair is third with 35 games.

Hall of Famer Frank Robinson with nine, hit the most postseason homers for the Orioles. Brady Anderson, Eddie Murray and Boog Powell each hit six to tie for second. Don Buford and Brooks Robinson hit five each.

When I checked to see the OPS leaders for the O’s in the playoffs, if the standard was just 25 plate appearances at a minimum, here is the top of the list:

1.076 – Harold Baines
1.007 – Nelson Cruz
.955 – Brady Anderson
.949 – Geronimo Berroa
.939 – Todd Zeile

Ryan Minor diagnosed with colon cancer

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I’m going to peel away from the standard baseball talk this morning and share some sad news about former Orioles third baseman Ryan Minor.

Minor, 48, recently was diagnosed with Stage 4 colon cancer. His twin brother, Damon, is involved in setting up a GoFundMe page to gather donations on behalf of his wife Allyson.

Why good people keep being hit with this kind of news is forever a source of tremendous frustration. And you can be sure that Minor is one of the really good guys in the industry and outside of it. A high-character individual and as nice as they come.

Minor spent parts of three seasons with the Orioles from 1998-2000 and finished his major league career with the Expos in 2001 after they acquired him in a trade for reliever Jorge Julio.

The Orioles hired Minor as hitting and infield coach with Single-A Delmarva in 2008, after he served as the first hitting coach for the independent York Revolution. He managed the Shorebirds from 2010-12 and high Single-A Frederick in 2013 before returning to Delmarva for the 2014-17 seasons. He managed the Keys again in 2018-19 before the Tigers hired him to manage in the Gulf Coast League in 2020.

Another look at a strong year on the Baltimore farm

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While the Orioles were the surprise team in the majors this year, gaining 31 wins from 2021 to 2022, the Baltimore farm also had a strong year. But there, the win-loss record is not the standard by which success is fully achieved.

Sure, you would like to win on the farm, but developing players and advancing them forward is the top goal. Helping them get better, moving them through the farm and onto the majors. That is the ultimate way to grade the farm – how many players make the majors and are good when they get there. The farm also produces so-called “prospect capital” that can be traded to bring more talent to the organization and improve overall depth while filling holes that might exist.

Only High-A Aberdeen (78-54) made the playoffs among the full-season clubs, losing in the South Atlantic League finals. But Triple-A Norfolk (74-76) and Double-A Bowie (68-70) were near .500. The Baysox lost out on a playoff spot for their second-half record on the final day of the season. Low Single-A Delmarva (49-81) had the poorest record, but it was a roster filled with international players on the rise, many playing full season ball for the first time and taking some lumps along the way.

In midseason farm system rankings, where outlets are grading your total talent in the organization which is not based on wins and losses, Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and ESPN all ranked Baltimore No. 1 out of 30 major league organizations.

The Orioles got to the top, and now we'll find out if they can stay there as the team no doubt will use the farm in some different ways with a major league team ready to win now. You can’t force development, so they won’t be rushing players. But some could join the major league roster faster now as needs arise. And for the first time under Mike Elias, we could see him trading from his surplus of minor league talent to help the major league roster this winter. Up to about now, the team was in the position to try and add prospects of all ages to bolster the farm. It was all about rebuilding.

Mateo gets glove love with Fielding Bible award

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Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo wasn’t deemed worthy of being a finalist for a Rawlings Gold Glove in the American League, a snub that drew attention inside and outside of the organization. He dazzled and was denied.

If it stung Mateo, he was soothed yesterday with news that he’s receiving a Fielding Bible Award as the best defensive shortstop in the majors.

In either league. One shortstop is selected based on statistical analysis from sabermetrically inclined journalists and other personnel, and it’s Mateo.

The news release from Baseball Info Solutions included this passage on Mateo:

Jorge Mateo was instrumental to the Orioles resurgence, finishing a close third among shortstops with 14 Defensive Runs Saved and tied for second in Good Fielding Plays with 28. He led all shortstops by converting 72 percent of his double play opportunities. He’s the first Orioles shortstop to win the award.”

Hyde chosen as The Sporting News AL Manager of the Year

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Awards season already is upon us.

The Sporting News has named Brandon Hyde as it’s 2022 American League Manager of the Year. The winner is chosen in a survey of players, managers and executives.

Hyde led an historic turnaround this season, with the Orioles improving by 31 games and posting its first winning record since 2016.

Seven Orioles managers have received the award. Hank Bauer won it in 1966, Hall of Famer Earl Weaver in 1977 and 1979, Frank Robinson in 1989, Johnny Oates in 1993, Davey Johnson in 1997, and Buck Showater in 2012.

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America reveals its winners next month, and Hyde is a favorite to be honored again. He received 50 percent of The Sporting News votes to outdistance Houston’s Dusty Baker and Cleveland’s Terry Francona.

A look at the remarkable 2022 season for lefty Cionel Pérez

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At one time, great things seemed to be in the future for O’s lefty reliever Cionel Pérez. He signed for big dollars as an international amateur out of Cuba in late 2016. He was signed by a Houston staff that included current O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias. One of his minor league pitching coaches was Chris Holt.

He would be reunited with that duo and others from Houston when the Orioles claimed him off waivers from Cincinnati on Nov. 24, 2021.

But no one could have predicted his time with the Orioles would go as well as it did. Or that he would even make the opening day roster out of spring training. But he did do that, and had an ERA of 0.00 through his first 11 O's games into early May. What would turn out to be a great year for him had gotten off to a great start.

We can’t know for sure what exactly allowed Pérez, on the Orioles' watch, to pitch so much better than he previously had, but he lived up to the signing bonus he once signed. Twice.

Houston signed Pérez for $5.15 million on Sept. 12, 2016. But after a medical review produced big concerns over his left elbow, that bonus was reduced to $2 million and Pérez signed again.

The Joe Maddon connection still paying off for Brandon Hyde

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The upcoming announcements of the winners for the major awards in Major League Baseball for the 2022 season could provide both some excitement and some frustrations for Orioles fans.

There could be excitement next Monday Nov. 7 when the finalists for the Baseball Writers' Association of America awards are announced. The O's, it seems likely, will have finalists for the AL Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards in Adley Rutschman and Brandon Hyde.

The frustration could come if both come close to, but do not win, those awards. 

Seattle's Julio Rodriguez seems to be the favorite for the ROY award and there is some sentiment that Cleveland's Terry Francona will be named top manager.

The BBWAA awards announcements begin on Nov. 14 with the rookies in each league and the AL and NL manager winners will be announced Nov. 15. 

Three questions posed to the Orioles' front office

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One of the responsibilities of being a fan is also serving as armchair general manager. The pay’s lousy but one of the perks is you can’t be fired.

Not everyone is going to fit in the dugout. Someone has to move up to the suites and make the hard roster decisions.

I have three questions for you to consider.

Would you re-sign Jesús Aguilar?
Aguilar sneaked into the trade deadline craziness on Aug. 31, the unexpected guest knocking on your door, when the Orioles signed him as a free agent after his release by the Marlins four days earlier.

The Orioles saw an opportunity to grab a power bat and included him on their expanded roster. He was an All-Star with the Brewers in 2018 while hitting 35 home runs and finishing with 108 RBIs and an .890 OPS. He had 22 homers and 93 RBIs with the Marlins in 2021.

Random take Tuesday

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There will be some rules changes coming to Major League Baseball in 2023 and among them is essentially the elimination of infield shifts. Starting next year, two infielders must be on each side of second base and they have to be no deeper than the back-edge of the infield which touches the outfield. Also, teams cannot switch defenders and for instance move a shortstop to the second base spot on the right side against a pull lefty batter.

This change should add some offense and some defense to the game.

The shift takes hits away from batters that are pull happy with groundballs and mostly unable to hit against the shift. Had they been able to do that, they would see fewer shifts. But we know how that turns out.

I went back and looked at the MLB number for Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) every year since 2010. For most of the seasons between 2010 and 2019, the final BABIP was between .297 and .300. But teams kept shifting more and more and that number dropped to .292 in the shortened 2020 season and in 2021. The BABIP was .290 last season.

Now that lefty batters won’t face a seeming picket fence on defense on the right side moving forward, some hits will be added to their up-to-now sinking batting averages. That could create more scoring in the game in general and more scoring chances. More runners can mean more pressure on pitchers, who then make more mistakes in some of those spots and more runs are scored.

Orioles bringing back coaching staff for 2023

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The Orioles are following their first winning season in six years by leaving their coaching staff intact.

According to multiple sources, the only change coming is the addition of Cody Asche as offensive strategy coach. Asche just completed his first season as upper-level hitting coordinator in the minors.

Anthony Villa will now oversee the entire system as minor league hitting coordinator after working at the lower levels in 2022.

Manager Brandon Hyde, whose option already was picked up for next season, will again have Fredi González as his bench coach, Chris Holt as pitching coach/director of pitching, Darren Holmes as assistant pitching coach, Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte as co-hitting coaches, Tim Cossins as major league field coordinator/catching instructor, Anthony Sanders as first base coach/outfield instructor, Tony Mansolino as third base coach/infield instructor, and José Hernández as major league coach.

Holmes moved from the bullpen to the dugout this season, swapping places with Cossins. He previously held the title of “bullpen coach.”

After he munched on innings and did more, O's have decision to make on Lyles

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Right-hander Jordan Lyles, who was the 2022 Orioles team leader in wins and innings, could return to the Orioles for the 2023 season. The decision will solely be made by the front office as the O’s hold a team option on Lyles for next year.

Should they decide to allow him to leave via free agency, Lyles will get a $1M buyout. Should they pickup that option they will add $10 million to that for a total outlay of $11 million. They are going to owe him $11 million to stay and $1 million to go.

This past season, in 32 starts over 179 innings, Lyles went 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He allowed 26 homers with 52 walks and 144 strikeouts. His WHIP was 1.385 and he walked 2.6 per nine and fanned 7.2. His numbers were similar to last year in many respects, except his ERA went down from 5.15 and his homer rate of 1.3 fell from 1.9.

It is well documented that Lyles was a real leader for the pitching staff and he embraced and enjoyed the role. For this article late in the year, Tyler Wells discussed Lyles’ leadership abilities.

“He is invaluable in so many ways,” the right-hander said. “You can’t really put a price on what he has done for us as a starting staff, as a team, and as a mentor for a lot of us. He really teaches us what it’s like to be a starter and how he has made a 10-year career into what he has. All based on certain principles – like going deep into games and giving your team a chance to win every single time.

Is Wells a definite starter next season?

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How close are the Orioles to setting their rotation?

The short answer is, “Not very.”

How much urgency is there in the fall?

The shorter answer is, “None.” But it’s one of the most important tasks facing executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias, along with adding some muscle to the offense, however he can do it.

The club doesn’t know when John Means will return from Tommy John surgery. He’s cleared to do some light tossing and plans on ramping up his activities after Jan. 1, when he reports to the spring training complex in Sarasota.

A few more questions for O's fans

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We’re back. Yes, already. A few more questions today for our readers and O’s fans among us.

Hope most of you are both – readers and O’s fans.

Enough with the small talk.

On to today’s questions:

What will be the season-ending OPS next year for both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson?

Returning to more reflections on 2022 season

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We've entered Day 4 since the Orioles last grabbed the local media's attention by announcing a few transactions, the most notable the signing of backup catcher Anthony Bemboom to a 2023 contract.  

The quiet won't last. 

Let’s do a little more reflecting on 2022, a season that brought so many unexpected highs and unavoidable lows.

I’ve already noted how Matt Harvey never had his contract selected from Triple-A Norfolk, Gunnar Henderson earned a promotion despite his age, Yusniel Diaz stayed only for a cup of coffee, Rougned Odor lasted into September, we never saw Robert Neustrom, DJ Stewart didn’t make it back to the Orioles after three games to begin the season, Jorge Mateo was exclusively a shortstop, Bryan Baker stuck for the entire season, Nick Vespi will never give up another Triple-A run, Joey Krehbiel disappeared after almost going wire-to-wire, Terrin Vavra could wear many hats next season, Jacob Nottingham didn’t get back to the majors, and César Prieto’s 2022 ceiling was Double-A.

Here are two more: