I’ve heard the speculation that Corbin Burnes could sign for less years at a higher annual average value, perhaps going as low as three years.

I’ll believe that when I see it. Not a minute beforehand.

There’s some logic in getting paid big on a shorter term and re-entering free agency at age 33. A sliver of logic. Thinly sliced like garlic with a razor on “Goodfellas.”

The pitching market melted a little more Sunday with the Marlins sending left-hander Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies - an injury risk but one of the most appealing starters on the trade market. Max Fried signed with the Yankees, receiving $218 million over eight seasons. Blake Snell got $182 million over five years from the Dodgers. Nathan Eovaldi exceeded some expectations by receiving $75 million over three years to stay with the Rangers. Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Red Sox.

Japanese right-hander Rōki Sasaki is out there and predicted by many in the industry to sign with a West Coast team if it isn’t one based in New York. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta sit in the next-tier group. Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler just left it.

We're nearing the Christmas holiday with the Orioles still in the market for a top starter but solidifying the back portion of the rotation with Tomoyuki Sugano. How far he's pushed back depends on whether a new pitcher arrives via trade or free agency.

This much is certain: Sugano won’t be intimidated by pitching in the American League East. He welcomes the challenge and believes he’s prepared for it after spending 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants in the Japan Central League.

“I’m very excited to play in such a competitive division against great teams, great franchise and great history,” he said via VC Sports Group agent Shawn Novak. “I’ve also played for a great franchise with a huge history and successful history with the Tokyo Giants, so it's a great fit for me. I’m really looking forward to competing in that division and in the league in general.”

Sugano is eager to sample the Charleston’s soft shell crabs next summer in Harbor East. By then, he’ll already have bonded with catcher Adley Rutschman. Perhaps they can dine together outside of the clubhouse.

“I’m looking forward to competing, looking forward to working with Adley Rutschman, a fantastic catcher,” Sugano said.

Before we get to the holiday leftovers and play the game of “does this smell OK,” we should dig a little deeper into the mailbag.

Grab a shovel.

My editing consisted of thinking “maybe I should” and changing it to “absolutely not.”

The bullpen sorely lacked strikeouts in 2024. Was that due more to lousy luck or the arms not having strong "out" pitches? How do they improve on that in 2025?
The Orioles ranked 22^nd in relief strikeouts with 571. They were 14^th in 2023 with 614, and the total would have been higher with a healthy September from Félix Bautista. His return figures to ramp up the Ks. A full season from Seranthony Domínguez, who averages 10.4 per nine innings in his career, also is going to make a difference. You could say the same about Gregory Soto, who averaged 11.2 with the Phillies and 10.7 with the Orioles. Yennier Cano struck out 65 batters to match last year’s total, but he did it in 60 innings compared to 72 2/3 in 2023. Keegan Akin has averaged 10.3 and 11.1 the past two seasons in 23 2/3 and 78 2/3 innings, respectively. Danny Coulombe averaged 9.7, but only in 29 2/3 innings due to his elbow surgery. How was this team 22^nd?

I see that Cedric Mullins is now a member of the Executive Committee for the MLBPA. I'd be interested in knowing what is currently being discussed and how Cedric feels about being part of the inner workings of the Players Association.
That isn’t a question. Me, too, and he’ll be asked about it if he’s at the Birdland Caravan or in spring training.

I’ll be home for Christmas, and with a mailbag that should be a little lighter after another dumping.

You dared to ask and I deemed your questions worthy of my attention. Don’t take the honor lightly.

Also, my mailbag roasts chestnuts on an open fire and your mailbag wrestles squirrels for acorns.

How much of a language barrier will there be for Tomoyuki Sugano in the clubhouse next year? He obviously won't have an interpreter in a mound meeting with Adley Rutschman, pitching coaches and other infielders during a game.
Sugano is allowed to use an interpreter for mound sessions. That isn’t an issue. And I’ve watched teammates in the past welcome foreign-born players and bust down that barrier. Koji Uehara learned some new words that he couldn’t repeat in interviews, and he loved it.

Who was our interpreter for Koji?
I had to look it up. It’s been a while. Jiwon Bang was Koji’s interpreter.

One of the most important questions relating to the Orioles was attached earlier this week. It came out of nowhere.

Well, it’s actually Japan, but still unexpected with the rotation chatter and speculation focusing on trades and the major league free-agent market.  

Will Tomoyuki Sugano’s stuff translate to similar results in the U.S.?

Sugano will be the third Japanese pitcher to appear with the Orioles, an important distinction because Tsuyoshi Wada underwent ligament-reconstructive elbow surgery in May 2012, was released the following year and never made it past Triple-A with them. He doesn’t count. Zero return on the two-year, $8.15 million contract he received.

(Easily forgotten is how the Cubs signed Wada in 2014 and he tossed six hitless innings against the Orioles on Aug. 24 at Wrigley Field. Steve Pearce led off the seventh with a home run.)

Tomoyuki Sugano spent one day in Baltimore and already found his favorite restaurant.

It’s important to get certain tasks out of the way. Going through his first spring training in the United States and making his major league debut are next on his plate.

Sugano, 35, signed a $13 million contract with the Orioles on Monday after 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League in Japan. He won the league’s Most Valuable Player award this season after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA - 29 earned runs in 156 2/3 innings – 0.945 WHIP, 132 hits, 16 walks and 111 strikeouts in 24 starts, including three complete games and one shutout. He surrendered only six home runs.

Known for his impeccable control, Sugano posted a 2.6 percent walk rate and 0.9 walks per nine innings that ranked as the lowest of his career. He led NPB in wins and his ERA was second.

Sugano has gone 136-74 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.031 WHIP and 1,585 strikeouts in 276 career games over 1,857 innings, and he’s a three-time Central League Most Valuable Player, three-time Central League Golden Glove winner, eight-time All-Star and two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, presented to the top pitcher in NPB.

The holiday week is right around the corner, when baseball doesn’t have to shut down but often gets quiet.

The Orioles traded for pitcher Jonathan Heasley on Dec. 18, 2023 and didn’t announce another move until signing free-agent catchers David Bañuelos and Michael Pérez on the 30^th. Their only transactions in December 2021 were minor league deals due to the lockout, the last on the 15^th. But they made an exception in 2022 with a flurry that included the James McCann trade and Mychal Givens signing on the 21st and sending first baseman Lewin Díaz to the Braves on the 23^rd.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias got agreements on two major league contracts right before this year’s Winter Meetings, securing outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez, and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano signed with the club on Monday.

The roster probably isn’t done undergoing changes. Elias seems intent on finding at least one more reliever and he could continue his pursuit of a starter despite Sugano’s $13 million contract. Sugano isn’t a No. 1, which either keeps the search alive or leaves the Orioles choosing between Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin and being satisfied with bolstering the middle of the rotation.

The 40-man roster is full and a 13-man pitching staff unexpectedly includes Sugano at $13 million. Per the Associated Press, he also can earn an additional $50,000 for an All-Star selection, $100,000 for winning the Cy Young Award, $75,000 for finishing in second place, $50,000 for finishing in third, $50,000 for winning a Gold Glove; $100,000 for being World Series Most Valuable Player, and $50,000 for being Championship Series MVP.

The 11-month mark arrived Monday since the opening ceremony of the Orioles’ new, state-of-the-art training academy in Guerra, Dominican Republic.

The 22.5-acre complex is home to the organization’s regional facility for Caribbean, Central and South American player development operations, with three full fields, a sports turf agility field, batting and pitching tunnels, dormitories, administrative buildings, entertainment spaces, a dining room with nutritious meals, and three classrooms with a computer lab. The expectation was that more than 100 players, coaches and staff would be housed there.

“It’s an incredibly impressive facility,” manager Brandon Hyde said that day. “I just think it’s so well done and it means a ton for the organization because this is part of the lifeblood of our team and lifeblood of our organization is signing players and giving them a great facility to train in. And this is the step one for a lot of our young players that we signed that are going to be Baltimore Orioles, and to have them be in this sort of facility is incredible.

“Everything is done extremely well, just from the fields to the artificial surface for the agility field, to what the clubhouse and the classrooms look like. Just a really, really well designed facility, and looking forward to our young players using it. I didn’t really know what to expect. I’ve been to a couple of facilities down here before. Every one is a little bit different, but this is like modern and this is a really, really, new-age type of facility.”

More young players will be arriving with the international signing period beginning on Jan. 15.

The role isn’t defined for Gary Sánchez, the new Orioles backup catcher. He isn’t sure how many innings he’ll get behind the plate or whether he’ll do more hitting than squatting. He’s just eager to be part of a contending team, which he’s used to doing, and try to push it further through the postseason.

Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias reached agreement with Sánchez on an $8.5 million contract for 2025, with the deal becoming official at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. Sánchez is replacing veteran backup James McCann, who remains on the free-agent market.

McCann was a popular figure in the clubhouse and particularly with the pitching staff, but the Orioles didn’t try to bring him back. Sánchez will be the first primary backup since Robinson Chirinos, who’s now the bench coach, in 2022.

“I think they have really good chemistry, and for me it’s an honor to be part of this team now,” Sánchez said during today’s video call via interpreter Brandon Quinones. “They have a lot of great, young talent, a real exciting group, and I’m just looking forward to going out there and helping any way that I can to support this team and help this team win.”

The Brewers were Sánchez’s fifth team and he appeared in 89 games this year, batting .220/.307/.392 with seven doubles and 11 home runs. He started at catcher in 27 of those games and at first base once, with the majority of his work as the designated hitter.

I couldn’t get to a few questions in the weekend mailbag and wanted to publish them before they got stale, like the bread used to make stuffing for your holiday turkey.

By the way, it’s dressing if prepared outside the bird. Let me address that one before it’s asked.

Here are some extras while we wait for Orioles news.

Is the offseason plan to just hope Grayson Rodriguez stays healthy and becomes the ace they hope?
I wouldn’t say it’s a “plan.” It isn’t preventing the Orioles from acquiring a top starter. But they certainly hope that he can go the distance and reach his enormous potential. Gotta stop with the lat and shoulder soreness. He could be an ace if he’s healthy. He’s got that kind of stuff.

Who's your early minor league dark horse(s) to make their MLB debut in 2025?
Here’s one for you that’s outside the (batter’s) box: Catcher Maverick Handley is on the taxi squad and has his contract selected because of an injury. He’s already in the clubhouse and the team doesn’t want to play shorthanded. It happened twice this year with catcher David Bañuelos and he received his first and only major league at-bat. Bañuelos was the leading taxi squad guy this year, but Handley has done it in the past.

The Orioles went the international route to find a starting pitcher.

The team announced this evening that it signed Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, 35, to a one-year major league contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the deal pays $13 million.

Sugano has spent his entire 12-year professional career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League in Japan, and his numbers and accolades are impressive. He won the Central League’s Most Valuable Player this season after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA - 29 earned runs in 156 2/3 innings – 0.945 WHIP, 132 hits, 16 walks and 111 strikeouts in 24 starts, including three complete games and one shutout. He surrendered only six home runs.

Still strong as he ages, Sugano posted a 2.6 percent walk rate and 0.9 walks per nine innings that ranked as the lowest of his career. He led NPB in wins and his ERA was second – and the second-lowest of his career.

Sugano has gone 136-74 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.031 WHIP and 1,585 strikeouts in 276 career games over 1,857 innings with the Giants. He’s a three-time Central League Most Valuable Player, three-time Central League Golden Glove winner, eight-time All-Star, two-time Eiji Sawamura Award honoree - presented to the top pitcher in NPB - and MVP of the 2013 Central League Climax Series that’s the playoff format in NPB.

Tyler O’Neill knows his splits and how he’s joining the Orioles in large part because they wanted a right-handed bat to improve their production against lefties. However, he didn’t sign a contract to sit.

The Orioles are prepared to pay O’Neill $49.5 million over three seasons, with an opt-out clause after 2025. He’s basically the replacement for free agent right fielder Anthony Santander, and he’s geared toward exceeding the 113 appearances with the Red Sox this summer.

He’s coming to play.

“Obviously, they want me to be part of the everyday lineup, and I’m looking forward to being able to contribute in that regard,” O’Neill said earlier today in his introductory video call with local media.

“I understand last year I had some splits that were a little more drastic than in years before, but honestly, part of that was playing at Fenway Park and just being in that home ballpark and really trying to tailor my approach to the left field wall. They wanted me to open up to the pull side and kind of had to play up front a little bit more, which left me less room for error. And it worked out. It worked out well, for sure, but it definitely caused some streakiness, so to be able to play in a ballpark that’s symmetrical like Camden Yards, I’m really excited to be able to exploit right-center more and use the whole field and see what I can post on top of that.”

Questions come attached to the Orioles that can be answered before Opening Day, with others that need more time.

Pretty much anything relating to the roster should become clearer by late March, but check back in October for the rest. There's no way to know until a season plays out.

Here are three more examples.

Can the Orioles get a full season out of Grayson Rodriguez?

Rodriguez was a camp cut in 2023 who rejoined the Orioles in early April after Kyle Bradish took a line drive off his leg in Texas. He was optioned in late May and didn’t return until July 17.

The countdown to spring training intensifies after the Winter Meetings and the start of a new year. The important dates leading up to it are fading.

Arbitration figures are exchanged on Jan. 9 for eligible players who haven’t signed. The international signing period begins Jan. 15. Those are the big ones.

Perhaps the Orioles will introduce a new player or two before camp opens in Sarasota.

I’ve already provided a sampling of spring storylines: how Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo fit on the roster, how Adley Rutschman will hit, anything Félix Bautista, rehab progress made by Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez’s health after being left off the Wild Card roster, anything Jackson Holliday, what a full season of Zach Eflin could do, whether Daz Cameron can make the club as an extra outfielder, whether Dean Kremer can take the next step, reaction to the left field wall, the bullpen, whether Cade Povich makes the club, Emmanuel Rivera’s bid to break camp with the team, improvements with Trevor Rogers, and any noticeable changes under the new hitting coaches.

Here are a few more.

The weekend always seems like an opportune time to dump the contents of the mailbag, and chances to do it are running out in 2024.

You ask and I answer, which leads us to the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

I thought about editing, but it appealed to me as much as coal in my stocking or trying to hit Gerrit Cole.

Also, my mailbag comes down your chimney with a bag of presents and your mailbag sweeps it.

Do you think Tyler O'Neill will avoid the injured list for the entire season?
O’Neill has landed on it 14 times in his career, including three in 2024. But I’d have trouble predicting a full season out of any player. You never know when an injury is gonna strike. There’s luck involved, too. “I think the injuries that he has had have been minor,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told the media at the Winter Meetings. “They’re things that have blown over. We’re hoping we can keep him healthy. We’ll take good care of him. We’ll have DH at-bats available for him. … He’s a young guy and I think he’s had bad luck in some regards with some injuries.”

Let’s be blunt here.

Anyone shocked that the Orioles left the Winter Meetings without a No. 1 starter or upgrade further down the rotation is forgetful or unfamiliar with how the club usually operates. You set yourselves up to be disappointed.

Closer Craig Kimbrel was a surprise signing last December on the final day before executives boarded flights home. The Orioles normally nab a minor league free agent or two, make a selection or two in the Rule 5 draft and hope that talks lead to a later agreement or deal prior to the start of spring training.

Laying groundwork also happens at these meetings. Lines of communication aren’t snipped.

The Corbin Burnes trade was finalized on Feb. 1, a stunner that delivered a legitimate ace on a rental basis. Kyle Bradish was injured, which probably amped the urgency to make a move. That’s how the dots are connected.

The Orioles conducted their business yesterday in the Rule 5 draft, watching seven minor leaguers leave the organization, and headed back home still short at least one starter and reliever. The meetings with agents and executives were plentiful. Perhaps they were able to make significant progress toward a deal. But the only announcements were the signings of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez three days after their agreements.

Trading for an ace like the Padres’ Dylan Cease or Seattle's Luis Castillo - the Mariners want a right-handed hitting first baseman - is becoming the more likely avenue with free agents flying off the board. Garrett Crochet went to the Red Sox, so he’s out. Otherwise, executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias will need to lower his sights to the middle of the rotation on shorter-term deals or bust the bank for Corbin Burnes.

While the pitching staff is incomplete, the biggest questions surrounding the lineup and bench center on who makes the club and the amount of playing time.

Elias didn’t offer any guarantees Tuesday about Jackson Holliday getting most of the starts at second base, and he listed the factors that could influence it.

“It’s gonna depend on a lot of things - on the lineup, who’s healthy, who’s pitching, who’s in that Opening Day lineup. But I think we’re gonna see a big step forward from Jackson this year,” Elias said during his media session.

The Orioles completed another Winter Meetings without selecting a player in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.

It used to be tradition.

The club passed again with the 24^th pick in the first round, extending its streak to two consecutive years. The Orioles had a stretch of 18 drafts in a row with a selection prior to the 2023 Winter Meetings.

The most recent choice was reliever Andrew Politi, who returned to the Red Sox as a late camp cut.

The Orioles lost their No. 8 prospect today to the Padres, right-hander Juan Nuñez, who hasn’t pitched above High-A ball and appeared in only seven games this summer due to a shoulder injury.

The shakeup of the major league coaching staff, particularly on the hitting side, isn’t leading to a massive change in philosophy, instruction and reliance on analytics and data.

It’s more about self-examination and perhaps some tweaking. Evolve rather than overhaul.

Cody Asche is the lead hitting coach after serving as offensive strategy coach for two seasons. Upper-level hitting coordinator Sherman Johnson also will serve as an assistant hitting coach, and the Orioles hired Tommy Joseph for the same role.

“I think we’ve always had an attraction to what is described as a modern coach,” said assistant general manager Sig Mejdal. “That’s someone who inspires the players, has their respect, but also doesn’t shy away from questioning convention, looking at data, looking at technology, and that describes Cody and Sherm very well.”

The Orioles have been swept in the playoffs in the last two seasons and managed only one run in 18 innings against the Royals in the Wild Card round. They went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position, a continuation of their struggles over the second half.

The Orioles announced the signings in free agency of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez earlier today. Physicals were passed and contracts inked.

O’Neill received a three-year deal for $49.5 million and Sánchez received a one-year deal for $8 million.

The 40-man roster has 39 players, leaving room if the Orioles want to make a selection in Wednesday afternoon’s Rule 5 draft that wraps up the Winter Meetings.

“Pretty clearly two profiles we had been seeking going into the offseason,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said during his media scrum at the Hilton Anatole Hotel. “They both bring tremendous amounts of right-handed power. They’re good against both sides, righty and lefty pitching, but extremely productive, Tyler in particular, against left-handed pitching. That's something that you look at the composition of the rest of our team was a relative weakness. We have a lot of left-handed hitters, particularly in the outfield.”

O’Neill replaces Anthony Santander, who remains on the free-agent market and reportedly is attracting interest from other teams in the division.