Checking in on more free agent pitching

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With the Orioles in the market for starting pitching and possibly poised to add one or more hurlers from the free agent ranks, today we’ll take a look at two more possibilities.

To be clear, these are just some stats and notes on these pitchers and not my speculation - or anyone’s, for that matter - in terms of the Orioles' interest level in these pitchers. As you know, they keep such information very close to the vest.

MLBTradeRumors.com has ranked nine pitchers among its top 20 free agents for this winter. Here they are, listed by the ranking and also the projected contract for each.

* No. 6 lefty Carlos Rodón – five years, $140 million

* No. 7 right-hander Jacob deGrom – three years, $135 million

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Noah Denoyer racked up the Ks with the big boys on O's farm

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Doing the math is pretty easy. Interpreting what it all means can be more challenging. But we do know the sport of baseball has gravitated toward placing increased value on pitchers with big strikeout totals. And while we used to be most enamored with raw strikeout totals, now stats like strikeout percentage might tell us a bit more.

Strikeout percentage is easy to get to. Simply divide the number of batters a pitcher strikes out by the total batters he faced. A pitcher that fanned 30 of 90 batters faced has a strikeout percentage of 33.3.

This year on the O’s farm, using a standard of 50 innings pitched for the year, the Orioles had seven minor league pitchers produce a strikeout percentage of 30 or above. Four of them are now on the 40-man roster and two were just added this week.

The list of seven:

36.6 – DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez

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Not an award winner this time, but some appreciation for Brandon Hyde

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The Orioles Adley Rutschman did not win the AL Rookie of the Year award. That was expected. Manager Brandon Hyde did not win the Manager of the Year award, which went to Cleveland's Terry Francona.

That was probably a bit less expected but certainly Francona was the favorite heading into last night. To have five of the 30 votes not place Hyde among the top three is a bit unexpected.

But Hyde was a reasonably close second losing out to Francona in points by 112-79. Francona got 17 first-place votes and Hyde got nine. 

So, he fell short last night. But for me, I think there are many reasons that Hyde has been and will continue to be the right manager for the Orioles. And ranking high among them in my opinion is his ability to work well with and get a lot of out of young players.

That fits so well with a rebuilding organization. Hyde seems to have an ability to get close with his players yet maintain a management relationship. He is open and honest with them, telling them what they need to hear, not what they want to hear.

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Looking at a few O's potential free agent pitching targets

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The baseball free agent market is underway. And the Orioles' Mike Elias told my colleague Roch Kubatko that the market could move swiftly this winter. Maybe some things will even heat up before the Winter Meetings early next month.

The Orioles are targeting pitching and hitting via both free agency and possibly trade routes also.

"I think this is going to be a very competitive market for players,” he said. “I think there’s a lot of teams out there that are looking to get better. People feel good about the health of the industry and I expect this will be a pretty active and maybe fast free agent market,” said Elias.

So, without any knowledge of how much money or far the Orioles are willing to go after free agent pitchers, we’ll take a look at a few of them over the next few weeks in this space. Today we start with three right-handers, who all pitched in New York in 2022.

* RHP Taijuan Walker: He is ranked as the No. 11 free agent via ESPN and projected to get four years at $60 million. MLBTradeRumors.com lists him at No. 16 and predicts a four-year deal for $52 million.

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O's hope these two pitchers keep taking steps forward in 2023

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Sure, the Orioles will be looking for a top-end rotation pitcher this winter, and maybe they actually add that guy or guys through free agency or via a trade.

But their rotation hopes for 2023 also would include seeing two young pitchers that took steps forward last season building on that. Those pitchers are right-handers Dean Kremer, who went 8-7 with a 3.23 ERA, and Kyle Bradish, who was 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA.

While these young pitchers completed their development, or are doing so on the Orioles watch, they both came in trades. All teams want to draft and develop young pitching, but you are happy to get it anywhere you can.

These pitchers did some encouraging things, especially later in the year, in 2022. Like shutting down the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros on back-to-back nights at Camden Yards on Sept. 22-23.

They combined to throw 17 2/3 scoreless innings with two walks and 16 strikeouts combined. During that series, former Oriole Trey Mancini was among those impressed by the Baltimore right-handers, and he talked to me about the pitchers in the visiting clubhouse at Oriole Park.

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Long gone, but never forgotten: Baltimore's Memorial Stadium

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From 1954 to 1991, it was home for the Orioles. It was also home to the Baltimore Colts, the Canadian Football League’s Baltimore Stallions and for their first two seasons, the Baltimore Ravens. In 1993, it was even home for a season to the Bowie Baysox before Prince George’s Stadium was built.

For some of us of a certain age, it just felt like ... well, home.

It was Memorial Stadium on 33rd Street. 

Looking back, we can admit now it was an old rickety stadium that came up short in a few areas. But when I was kid the anticipation of just going to see a game there was amazing, topped only by actually entering the place itself. It was special and I thought it was the greatest place any kid could ever go.

The memories of so many great games with so many great friends blur a bit now, but that feeling never leaves you. You always remember that. When I was a kid, it was that excited feeling of walking up the ramp to see the green grass and then watch the Orioles take the field. They always seemed to be among the best teams in baseball.

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A look at O's pitch usage/mix from 2022

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We are getting into the weeds a bit here today, digging into some pitching numbers that might be interesting to look at and note. Maybe they actually tell us something about Orioles pitching as well.

First, in the simplest terms, O’s pitchers, as a staff, threw fewer fastballs and changeups in 2022 compared to 2021. They threw more sliders and cutters and a similar number of curveballs.

In 2021, the Orioles used fastballs (four- and two-seamers combined) 51.0 percent, and that dropped to 47.3 this year. Their average fastball velocity increased, however, from 93.0 mph in 2021, which ranked 22nd in the major leagues, to 93.8 mph this season, tying them for 12th in the bigs. Some of the flamethrowers in the bullpen, no doubt, helped increase that average.

In 2021, the Orioles led the majors in throwing changeups, doing so 15.7 percent of the time. This season that percentage dropped to 13.3, which was still sixth-highest in baseball. That means the O’s still really like changeups.

In watching the team this year, there were nights I said to myself, ‘Hey, self, the O’s love the cutter.’ They used that pitch 5.2 percent of the time in ’21 (to rank 20th in the majors) and increased that this year to 8.4 percent (10th in baseball).

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The big man with a big arm had a big year for the Orioles

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These stats seem pretty good. And probably just about any pitcher would take such numbers.

* Top three percent of Major League Baseball in strikeout percentage.

* Top one percent in velocity.

* Top eight percent in whiff percentage and expected slugging against.

* Ranks 10th in the American League in ERA among pitchers throwing 60 or more innings.

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A few past and present World Series/postseason notes

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With the start of the World Series last night, I found myself playing around with the Stathead feature on Baseball-Reference.com yesterday checking some vary random facts and notes.

Such as which Oriole played in the most postseason games wearing the Orange and Black only? The Oriole to play the most postseason games for Baltimore was Mark Belanger, who was in 43 such games. Brooks Robinson comes next at 39 and Paul Blair is third with 35 games.

Hall of Famer Frank Robinson with nine, hit the most postseason homers for the Orioles. Brady Anderson, Eddie Murray and Boog Powell each hit six to tie for second. Don Buford and Brooks Robinson hit five each.

When I checked to see the OPS leaders for the O’s in the playoffs, if the standard was just 25 plate appearances at a minimum, here is the top of the list:

1.076 – Harold Baines
1.007 – Nelson Cruz
.955 – Brady Anderson
.949 – Geronimo Berroa
.939 – Todd Zeile

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A look at the remarkable 2022 season for lefty Cionel Pérez

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At one time, great things seemed to be in the future for O’s lefty reliever Cionel Pérez. He signed for big dollars as an international amateur out of Cuba in late 2016. He was signed by a Houston staff that included current O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias. One of his minor league pitching coaches was Chris Holt.

He would be reunited with that duo and others from Houston when the Orioles claimed him off waivers from Cincinnati on Nov. 24, 2021.

But no one could have predicted his time with the Orioles would go as well as it did. Or that he would even make the opening day roster out of spring training. But he did do that, and had an ERA of 0.00 through his first 11 O's games into early May. What would turn out to be a great year for him had gotten off to a great start.

We can’t know for sure what exactly allowed Pérez, on the Orioles' watch, to pitch so much better than he previously had, but he lived up to the signing bonus he once signed. Twice.

Houston signed Pérez for $5.15 million on Sept. 12, 2016. But after a medical review produced big concerns over his left elbow, that bonus was reduced to $2 million and Pérez signed again.

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After he munched on innings and did more, O's have decision to make on Lyles

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Right-hander Jordan Lyles, who was the 2022 Orioles team leader in wins and innings, could return to the Orioles for the 2023 season. The decision will solely be made by the front office as the O’s hold a team option on Lyles for next year.

Should they decide to allow him to leave via free agency, Lyles will get a $1M buyout. Should they pickup that option they will add $10 million to that for a total outlay of $11 million. They are going to owe him $11 million to stay and $1 million to go.

This past season, in 32 starts over 179 innings, Lyles went 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He allowed 26 homers with 52 walks and 144 strikeouts. His WHIP was 1.385 and he walked 2.6 per nine and fanned 7.2. His numbers were similar to last year in many respects, except his ERA went down from 5.15 and his homer rate of 1.3 fell from 1.9.

It is well documented that Lyles was a real leader for the pitching staff and he embraced and enjoyed the role. For this article late in the year, Tyler Wells discussed Lyles’ leadership abilities.

“He is invaluable in so many ways,” the right-hander said. “You can’t really put a price on what he has done for us as a starting staff, as a team, and as a mentor for a lot of us. He really teaches us what it’s like to be a starter and how he has made a 10-year career into what he has. All based on certain principles – like going deep into games and giving your team a chance to win every single time.

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Why the Orioles may have to part with a player the fan base really likes

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With some of the top pitchers in the majors pulling in some of the biggest salaries, short of signing a pitcher for $25-30 million or more, how do the Orioles get a frontline pitcher?

Well, potentially via trade.

But to get something good you have to be prepared to give up something good. Fans for years have suggested trades where their team gives up six mediocre players to get one good one. But teams don’t look to add mediocre players, so acquiring several of them at once is no incentive. What they want is players who have two or three years (or more) of team control left and are good players now. If they are in the prime years of their careers, all the better. If their salary is reasonable, even better yet.

The Orioles have at least one such player. And when it is suggested the team consider trading Anthony Santander to get something they like in return, it makes some in Birdland nervous. They get worried when there is talk of trading productive players. But if the team wants to acquire a pitcher they can slot at or near the top of their rotation, one with some track record of success in the majors and not a prospect who hasn’t done it yet, they need to give up something.

This is where Santander or someone similar could come in. Not because the Orioles want to “get rid of him” or they want to “move him,” but when you talk about “trade chips” that have some significance and could get another club's attention, well, he could.

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A look at Ryan Mountcastle's 2022 season

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In evaluating Ryan Mountcastle’s 2022 season, it is easy to note that his homer total dropped from 33 in 2021 – a new O’s rookie record – to 22 last season. His OPS dropped from .796, which was 14 percent above league average to .729, which was five percent above the league.

In 145 games Mountcastle, who will turn 26 in February, hit .250/.305/.423/.729 with 28 doubles, one triple, 22 homers and 85 RBIs. His homer percentage – the percentage of balls he hit out – dropped from 5.6 in 2021 to 3.6 last season.

Mountcastle’s offense really fell off in the second half when his OPS dropped from .786 to .656. It was .541 in July and .630 in August, and he hit a total of five home runs in those two months.

With the glove Mountcastle, via the eye test, got better. Via the data he got a lot better, going from the the bottom two percent in Outs Above Average (and he did make 18 starts in left field then) to the top 20 percent. Mountcastle tied for first in the AL and tied for third among MLB first basemen with his three outs above average.

“Defensively, I feel like I made some huge strides over there at first base and want to keep improving on that. Hitting, I hit the ball hard all year. It didn’t fall as much as I hoped. It is what it is. Got to keep learning, it’s a tough game and I will try to get better this offseason,” said Mountcastle, during the final series.

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A few questions for O's fans

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Sometimes our fine readers ask me questions in the comments section, and I enjoy trying to answer most of them or form an opinion to pass along. Today is one of those days I ask the questions and seek answers and opinions from the readers.

Welcome to our first offseason edition of “A few questions for O’s fans.”

Feel free to answer all the questions and provide feedback and comments on the opinions of other readers as well.

On to today’s questions:

Is O’s biggest need a frontline pitcher or hitter? Give reasons for your answer.

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O's offense came up a bit short in the 2022 season

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The cold and hard math from the 2022 season tells us this: The Orioles had a below-average offense this year. But not by a large amount. Still, it was enough to have Birdland’s concern meter on the rise as the year ended. The O’s offense stumbled badly at the end, and for some, that is the lasting memory of how they did with the bats this year.

Wins is the stat that matters above them all, but for offense, the number of runs tells the most complete story. The Orioles averaged 4.16 runs per game this year to rank 10th in the American League, behind the league average of 4.22 per game.

For much of the year the club was at right about league average. They were at 4.20 runs per game at the All-Star break and scoring 4.24 through August. Had they maintained that, they would have finished just above league average. But the Orioles scored just 3.97 runs per game in the final month, and their season-long average decreased.

The highest-scoring teams in the league were the Yankees (4.98 rpg), the Blue Jays (4.78 rpg) and the Astros (4.55 rpg).

In 2021, when American League teams produced more offense, the O’s scored 4.07 runs per game to rank 14th in the league, well behind last year's average of 4.60 per game. So they went from 14th in 2021 to 10th in runs per game in 2022.

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Jorge Mateo's future with club: It's complicated

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When it comes to Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo, there is a lot to like. He led the American League in stolen bases, he plays very solid, sometimes outstanding defense, and that top-of-the-scale speed never goes into a slump.

The defense and speed are plenty good enough for a first-division team, but is his offense? At a time when there are so many good-hitting shortstops in the American League, the O’s have a player that comes up short in that area.

When we consider Mateo’s future with the club, there are two elephants in the room: One, will that offense improve sufficiently or can we overlook it with that speed-defense combo? Two, will one or more of the O’s numerous and talented infield prospects be coming to take his job?

First, kudos and props for Mateo. In Orioles history, only Luis Aparicio and Brian Roberts have ever led the AL or been tied for first in steals. Mateo’s 35 topped the circuit by one over teammate Cedric Mullins, and by three over Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena.

Mateo’s dWAR, per baseball-reference.com, of 2.8 was tied for eighth-best in the major leagues. His 11 Outs Above Average (OAA), per Statcast, led AL shortstops, and his 14 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) ranked third among big league shortstops and second in the AL to Houston’s Jeremy Peña.

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And now an offseason that could be full of its own drama and fun

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If an offseason can be filled with intrigue and drama, this one could for the Orioles.

After an 83-win season, 31 more than the previous year, the Orioles are a winning team. Now we begin to find out how they take what they have impressively built to get to this point, to get to the next stage.

To get to where they can win 90 to 100 games, to not only contend for the playoffs, but for division championships with a team that could make a deep postseason run. And do it year after year after year. That is the long-range goal for the Orioles, and now we begin to see if they can realize it.

They have done such a great job just to get to this point.

They have a low payroll and plenty of flexibility with that moving forward. They have a top-ranked farm both to produce players to contribute to the big league club and players that could be involved in some key trades this winter.

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After getting O's Player of Year honor, Baltimore is next stop for Westburg

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Orioles infield prospect Jordan Wesburg is looking forward to the baseball offseason. For him it will include his wedding in December and more work toward making his major league debut.

While it didn’t come this year, it figures to be a near certainty for the 2023 season. Westburg is the O’s No. 5 ranked prospect via MLBPipeline.com on the club’s top 30 list and is now No. 76 on their national top 100. He is the O’s No. 6 prospect on the Baseball America list and No. 89 on the BA top 100.

After a big year that included 47 games at Double-A Bowie and 91 at Triple-A Norfolk, Westburg was named the Orioles' Minor League Player of the Year, winning the Brooks Robinson award. He was at Camden Yards yesterday and hopes to make that ballpark home soon.

“I feel like you are one step away when you get to Triple-A," he said. "You are one injury away, one whatever away. It’s really cool to have that realization. But there are still things that I would like work on. Still things I need to accomplish. Obviously I didn’t make it up here this year. And that says that we were winning here with the big league club and I wasn’t needed, but there are things I need to address so that next year in spring training I can have a shot.

“I’d like to continue to be more consistent. Continue to polish up the hit tool. There are flashes of things clicking together and also flashes of going into slumps and a little bit up and down. So, if I can can smooth those things out, it gives me a better chance to play up here. Everything is amplified and a bit harder on the biggest stage.”

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Jordan Westburg and Ryan Watson on their O's minor league awards

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Orioles infield prospect Jordan Westburg admits it was a bit surprising that he took home the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award after his good friend and minor league teammate Gunnar Henderson was named national Player of the Year by Baseball America.

But Westburg’s season and performance this year don’t take a back seat to anyone. He batted .265/.355/.496 (144-for-544) with 39 doubles, three triples, 27 homers, 96 runs scored, 106 RBIs, 70 walks and 12 stolen bases in 138 games between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. He led Orioles minor leaguers in doubles, extra-base hits (69), total bases (270) and RBIs. He also finished second in the organization in hits and home runs. After being promoted to the Tides on June 6, he led the International League with 74 RBIs.

“I’m proud of the award,” Westburg said this afternoon at Camden Yards. “I put in a lot of work this offseason to, obviously, produce the way I did this year. I’m happy that I won it. But essentially, at the big league level it’s not about me, it’s about the team and winning games and winning championships. That is what it’s going to come down to, but right now it’s cool to win this award.

“When I saw the news that Gunnar won the Baseball America Player of the Year, I was happy for him and a little shocked that I won the Orioles’ award. That is a little bit bigger award. But like I said, there were a lot of guys deserving of the award and I just feel lucky to have won it.”

And beyond Henderson, several players had big years on the O's farm this year. Henderson produced the top OPS in the system at .946, with Connor Norby next at .886, then Kyle Stowers at .884, Colton Cowser .874 and Westburg at .852.

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O's game blog: The final series begins

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The Orioles have just three games and one series remaining in the 2022 season. Tonight at cloudy and chilly Camden Yards, they host Toronto to start a season-ending three-game series.

The Orioles (82-77) bring a bit of momentum home with them after taking two of three at Yankee Stadium over the weekend. They won 3-1 Sunday, and win No. 82 clinched their first winning record since 2016.

The O's went 3-4 on the final road trip to Boston and New York and ended the year going 38-43 (.469) in road games. That is their best road record since going 39-42 (.481) in 2016.

The Orioles are 44-34 (.564) at home, tied for the sixth-best home winning percentage in the American League and 11th-best in the majors. This marks their most wins and best winning percentage at home since they went 46-35 (.568) in 2017.

The Orioles scored just five runs in the series at New York, and were shut out on Saturday. They have scored just nine runs their last five games, going 2-for-36 with runners in scoring position in that span. They have scored three or fewer in 16 of the last 27 games, going 4-12 in those contests.

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