We probably might have believed the Orioles would be a good team this year and maybe even make a playoff run. But thinking they would play .660 ball the first 50 games or .632 ball the last 19 games against winning teams might have been a stretch.

But the Orioles are indeed 12-7 in the last 19 against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, the Los Angeles Angels, Toronto and New York. They are indeed 33-17 and that win percentage would produce 107 wins over the full season.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the only team that can keep them out of first-place right now.

But while they trail the Rays by three games, they are now four games better than the Yankees, seven ahead of Boston and 7.5 up on Toronto. They are two games better than Atlanta and 2.5 better than the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

They have won four straight AL East series for the first time since June and July of 2016. And they have won back-to-back series in the Bronx for the first time since the 2016 season. They are 9-3 in their last 12 AL East contests and 11-7 (.611) for the year within the division.

NEW YORK – The Orioles knew it.

Before they filed out of the clubhouse for more pregame stretching and throwing, before the anthem was played, they knew that the Rays won earlier today. Their own victory would be necessary to keep pace in the American League East.

Last night’s comeback, made possible by an eight-run seventh inning, prevented them from falling four games back.

Get used to it.

The stamp denoting their spectator status has faded. They’re fighting to avoid doing the same in the standings.

NEW YORK – The Orioles have a chance tonight to win their 12th series in 2023 after posting their 19^th comeback victory last night.

Cedric Mullins is out of the lineup, an unusual occurrence against a right-hander. Ryan McKenna is in center field and Adam Frazier is leading off for the first time this season, but the 387^th of his career.

Frazier will try to extend his on-base streak to a career-high 18 games.

Gunnar Henderson is starting at third base after delivering a pinch-hit, two-run double last night in the seventh inning. He’s batting .306/.324/.611 (11-for-36) in his last 11 games.

Ryan O’Hearn is playing first base and Ryan Mountcastle is the designated hitter.

TORONTO – They recently took two of three at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. And Friday as the Orioles started their first stretch of the year playing AL East opponents in back-to-back series, they got off to a winning start thanks to a pitcher that enjoys being a tone setter.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson, at 35 the oldest player on the club, has said he enjoys the challenge of pitching series-opening games. He has now done this five times this season and the Orioles are 4-1 in those games and they were shut out the only time they didn’t win.

But what a tone that was set last night. Gibson went seven innings at Rogers Centre allowing one run as the Orioles won 6-2 to improve to 13-2 in series openers and 8-0 in such games on the road.

Said manager Brandon Hyde: “Gibson definitely pitched like an ace tonight, there’s no doubt. This is such a tough environment to pitch in. A really good hitter’s ballpark against a powerhouse offensive team. For Kyle to go seven innings against them in their home ballpark, that is next level.”

The Orioles pitching has been stepping up the last few weeks against some good teams with a staff ERA of 3.04 the past 14 games and a rotation ERA of 3.29 in that span, allowing three runs or less nine times. The Orioles now have 13 quality starts and have gone 12-1 in those games.

TORONTO – Ryan Mountcastle likes to hit against Toronto Blue Jays pitching, he likes to hit at Rogers Centre and he likes to hit against Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

The Orioles turned that trifecta and a huge outing from right-hander Kyle Gibson into another series-opening win tonight as Mountcastle hit a three-run homer to trigger a 6-2 win over Toronto. It was a big victory for the Orioles (29-16) who began a six-game American League East road trip to Toronto and New York.

The Orioles won for the seventh time in 10 games. Over longer stretches, they have won 20 of 29 and 25 of 36 games. They are now 7-6 in AL East games and 13-2 in series-opening games. They are 8-0 when they open a series on the road.

Mountcastle again tormented Kikuchi. He mashed his three-run homer to center in the third inning, scoring Joey Ortiz, who singled, and Adley Rutschman, who walked. Mountcastle drilled a low and in 1-1 fastball that was thrown 96 mph and hit out at 106, and it went 419 feet for his 10^th homer. It was a huge swing early in this game for Mountcastle, who now has 15 homers and 36 RBIs in 43 career games versus Toronto.

Last season, Mountcastle went 4-for-6 against Kikuchi with a double and three homers. That blast tonight made him 5-for-10 in his career against the Toronto lefty. It was Mountcastle’s 70^th career big league homer and his sixth in 16 career games at Rogers Centre.

He was never ranked as the No. 1 pitching prospect in all of minor league baseball, but he was a top 100 prospect for several years coming up through the Minnesota Twins' farm system. And right-hander Kyle Gibson, a first-round draft pick in 2009 and the oldest member of the Baltimore clubhouse at 35, provided a strong endorsement this week for his rotation mate, Grayson Rodriguez.

Rodriguez, 23, currently is the No. 1 pitching prospect and ranked No. 4 overall in the top 100 by Baseball America and No. 6 by MLBPipeline.com.

But in his most recent outing Monday against the Los Angeles Angels, he gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings. He is 2-1 with a 6.57 ERA on the year, allowing an opponent OPS of .923. At times opponents have hit his fastball hard.

But Gibson, known to be a great and supportive teammate, will let you know he sees big things ahead for Rodriguez. He said that while the right-hander looks for most consistency with his pitches, another thing he needs to do right now is block out the outside noise. Maybe easy to say and harder to do since Gibson is aware some fans are questioning whether Rodriguez is all he was said to be as a top prospect.

Not an easy place to be for a young pitcher who awaits a start tomorrow afternoon in Toronto against a quality lineup.

Former Orioles starter Scott Erickson stood at his locker after a poor outing and offered a simple explanation to reporters for what happened to him, why the opposition kept getting on base. One sentence that said plenty about his pitching and his dour personality.

“I can make them hit it on the ground,” he said flatly, “but I can’t direct where it goes.”

Next question.

Kyle Gibson has a much better rapport with the media, but his luck this afternoon mirrored what Erickson experienced that day.

The seven Pirates hits were singles, with none of the launch angles registering above 14 degrees via Statcast data. A strikeout/wild pitch fueled a rally in the third that included ground balls from Ke’Bryan Hayes and Ji Hwan Bae that found holes on the right side of the infield and accounted for three runs.

After 6-3 and 2-0 wins this weekend, the Orioles (26-13) can complete their third series sweep of the year this afternoon at Oriole Park when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates (21-19).

Tyler Wells went seven innings Saturday night, allowing just one hit as Baltimore recorded its fourth straight win and fourth 2023 shutout. The Orioles begin today three games back of Tampa Bay for first in the American League East, and have won 17 of their past 23, 20 of 27 and 22 of 30.

Baltimore pitching has been on an eight-game roll:

* The team ERA is 2.21 over those eight games with 21 runs allowed.

* The rotation ERA is 1.74 in that span, allowing two earned runs or less seven times.

Yennier Cano received two days off after working two innings Thursday afternoon in Kansas City. He wasn’t available last night after retiring all six batters he faced Sunday in Atlanta.

The temptation to use him anyway must be strong, simply because he’s become one of the top relievers in baseball.

Just how good?

The examples are numerous and widely publicized. Here is another, according to STATS:

Cano has faced 49 batters and allowed two hits, walked none and nailed one batter, for a .103 opponents’ OPS, second lowest through 12 appearances since 2014.

The Orioles got length tonight from starter Kyle Gibson. They got a quality start, only the eighth in 35 games, and with the veteran right-hander responsible for half.

But would they get the win?

Gibson deserved it, and not just for again knocking down the five-inning wall. He held the Rays to one run through the sixth and came out after Luke Raley’s soft leadoff single.

The Rays loaded the bases with no outs against Bryan Baker, and Raley scored on Wander Franco’s fly ball to leave Gibson with two runs on his line. The Orioles couldn’t yank the loss from him, falling 3-0 before an announced crowd of 12,669 at Camden Yards.

Raley homered off Keegan Akin in the ninth, and the Orioles (22-13) have their first three-game losing streak and second shutout. Tampa Bay improved its record to 29-7, the best in baseball.

The Orioles are back home, finally, after a three-city road trip and back-to-back, one-run losses in Atlanta.

Now they get red-hot Tampa Bay, which has the best record in baseball at 28-7 and a plus-115 run differential.

The Rays’ record is tied for the second-best through 35 games since 1903. The 1984 Tigers were 30-5 and won the World Series.

Per STATS, this is only the fifth time in 134 series that the Orioles and Rays have been first and second in the standings. Most recently was in April 2019, but the second-place Orioles were 7-10.

The teams have never finished one-two in the division.

KANSAS CITY – The Orioles had not been shut out yet this year and ranked fifth in the majors in runs per game at 5.45 coming into this outing. But their offense, which produced 11 runs last night, did not come through for the Orioles tonight.

O’s right-hander Kyle Gibson had been 4-0 this year and the Orioles were 5-1 in his 2023 starts. But he would need run support to win this one and didn’t get it.

Kansas City snapped a 10-game home losing streak, scoring single runs in the fourth and sixth and adding four in the seventh to beat the Orioles 6-0 in front of 10,362 at Kauffman Stadium. 

The time of game was one hour and 59 minutes. 

The Orioles will win a seventh consecutive series if they win the rubber match here on Thursday afternoon.

After 2-1 and 5-1 wins the last two days over the Detroit Tigers (7-12), the Orioles can complete their first three-game sweep of the 2023 season with a win this afternoon at Oriole Park.

O’s pitchers have allowed just two runs and seven hits this weekend with five walks and 23 strikeouts. Right-hander Kyle Gibson allowed one run and two hits over 6 1/3 innings last night. He walked three and tied his career high with 11 strikeouts. Gibson is now 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The rest of the O’s rotation has combined for just two wins.

Highest Single-Game Strikeout Totals by O's Pitchers since 2019:

12 K: John Means on 5/5/21 at Seattle

12 K: John Means on 9/20/20 vs. Tampa Bay

When Jorge Mateo was with the San Diego Padres earlier in his career, he could not crack the starting lineup and get regular playing time. But he played in 150 games last season for the Orioles, and maybe all those reps are paying off now.

Mateo is off to a sizzling start at the plate and making a real difference for an Orioles team that already expected to see him play strong defense and steal bases. They knew they would get two of these elements, but now they are getting all three.

Mateo, who has missed the last couple of games with a hip injury, could return to the lineup today. He was in the original lineup yesterday but the wet field led to the Orioles making the precautionary move to sit him another day. 

When center fielder Cedric Mullins watches Mateo play, the O’s leadoff man sees a player he can relate to.

“When I first saw him as a player and his skill set, what he is doing right now is what I always envisioned,” Mullins said recently. “For example, I think me and him are similar in that power-speed combination. He provides great defense on the field. Able to steal bases. Everything that I do at my peak, I think he can do as well. To be able to see it all come together with his hard work is great to see.”

Storms moved out of the area, the tarp was peeled back, and the Orioles began tonight’s game on time, an unlikely proposition based on the ominous forecast.

Kyle Gibson’s dominance was delayed.

Gibson had to work through a bases-loaded jam in the first inning that cost him 24 pitches. He allowed one run and two hits in 6 1/3, striking out 11 to match his career high, and the Orioles defeated the Tigers 5-1 before an announced crowd of 12,194 at Camden Yards.

Ramón Urías had a three-run double in the third inning before his ejection, James McCann hit his first home run in the fourth, and the Orioles improved to 13-7. They’ve won five games in a row and nine of 11, and they go for a series sweep on Sunday with Grayson Rodriguez opposing Eduardo Rodriguez.

Gibson was averaging 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings in his first four starts. He registered five tonight through the second to equal his season high and had nine through the fifth. His 11^th concluded the sixth.

CHICAGO – Adley Rutschman is the designated hitter this afternoon against the White Sox, as the Orioles try to guarantee another series win.

Rutschman ranks second in the American League and third in the majors with a .492 on-base percentage. He’s sixth in the majors with a 1.134 OPS.

Ryan Mountcastle’s 19 RBIs continue to lead the majors.

Gunnar Henderson’s 21 strikeouts are tied for most in the American League, but his 12 walks tie Rutschman for first in the AL.  He’s out of the lineup today.

Kyle Gibson is the first Orioles pitcher in modern franchise history to make three starts in his first three appearances with his new team and win each decision. He has a 3.44 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings.

The return of Kyle Bradish to the Orioles rotation becomes more of a reality with tonight’s injury rehab start at Double-A Bowie.

Bradish is expecting to be one-and-done in the minors. Build up his pitch count in a low-pressure environment, make certain that his right foot can withstand the workload, and wait for the roster move.

“I’m very excited,” Bradish said yesterday morning. “Felt like I still haven’t thrown since spring training. Yeah, very excited. Hopefully, it all goes well and be back out there next week.”

The days are favoring Bradish, who’s eligible to return Wednesday night in D.C. He’d be on regular rest. But the Orioles are off Monday and Thursday and could mess a little with the rotation.

Bradish has thrown two full bullpen sessions and one touch-and-feel. He thinks one rehab game is sufficient.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde kept rookie Grayson Rodriguez on the mound Tuesday for 99 pitches, the right-hander’s highest total in four years dating back to A ball. It wasn’t a test of strength and endurance. It wasn’t intended as a professional life lesson.

The club just needed the length.

“I can’t continue to pull our starters in the fifth inning,” Hyde said afterward.

Rodriguez was gone after walking the bases loaded and retiring only one batter in the fifth, the failure to put away hitters with two strikes coming back to bite him. But the stuff is filthy and the leash is long enough to reach Chicago, where he’ll start again Sunday afternoon.

What happens after that is the mystery, with Kyle Bradish pitching Friday night at Double-A Bowie and lined up for an April 19 return in D.C. if he stays on turn.

He was not a high draft pick, but maybe Double-A Bowie right-hander Justin Armbruester, their Opening Day starter, was the perfect pick for the Orioles organization and its pitching development program.

He entered an organization that under the Mike Elias front office has become heavily data and technology driven. In Armbruester, they added a cerebral pitcher who loves to soak up the data and analytics. He seems to want to use every advantage and resource available to him that he can get his hands on. Beyond the technology the Orioles provide him, he even keeps his own notebooks on opponent hitters and even makes notes on ballpark factors everywhere he goes.

Last year we started to see where a pitcher driven to get better, started to indeed do just that. Between High Single-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie, he went 6-2 with a 3.85 ERA over 117 innings. He walked 34, fanned 126, posted a 1.07 WHIP and opponent batters hit just .213 off him.

That was a solid year that landed him at the No. 20 spot on the latest Baseball America O’s top 30 prospects list. He is still sort of flying under the radar a bit, but less than he was. On Opening Night for Bowie at Hartford last Thursday, he threw five scoreless innings on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts.

Then no doubt he went back to work in his between starts bullpen sessions, using everything around him to try and keep getting better.

If there’s a soft spot in a major league schedule, the Orioles could clutch theirs like a body pillow.

Fresh off two losing series within their division, the Orioles began a stretch tonight of playing 19 of 22 games against sub-.500 teams. An opportunity, perhaps, to offer another interpretation of liftoff in Baltimore.  

Of course, the Orioles weren’t going to turn up their collective noses at anyone. They’d see how many teams are above them in the East.

They, too, had fewer victories than defeats after 10 days. But the Athletics and Tigers were tied for the worst record in the majors at 2-7, and the Orioles would see them in 11 of the next 19 games.

Kyle Gibson ran up his pitch count early but found his economical stride and made it into the seventh inning, Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman conquered the left field wall while others were less fortunate, Austin Hays took the safer route by homering to center, and the Orioles stayed hydrated and happy with a 5-1 victory over Oakland.