The unpredictability of baseball, and so often the Orioles organization, were on full display again yesterday. Trying to guess along is a dangerous game, bound to burn its participants.

News leaked that the Orioles were optioning corner infielder Coby Mayo to Triple-A Norfolk, and the immediate assumption had utility infielder Ramón Urías rejoining the club from the 10-day injured list. Two rehab games at Triple-A Norfolk, where Urías homered Friday night, seemed sufficient.

I jumped to that conclusion so hard that I may have qualified for the next Olympics.

Instead, the Orioles selected outfielder Daniel Johnson’s contract from Norfolk because Cedric Mullins’ status was uncertain due to the neck soreness that kept him on the bench Friday night. Mullins and right fielder Austin Slater attempted diving catches simultaneously the previous night and collided.  

Johnson made sense based on the circumstances, but Urías’ return is imminent, perhaps by this morning. Urías and Jordan Westburg were removed from last night’s game by design in the fifth inning. It’s just a matter of which players are bumped from the roster.

The baseball math can’t be manipulated tonight to give the Orioles a playoff-clinching scenario. It only worked if they won.

Cade Povich held the Tigers to two runs for the second time in less than a week and the Orioles rallied for two in the ninth to send the game into extras, but the Tigers scored twice against Yennier Cano in the 10th and won 6-4 before an announced crowd of 39,647 at Camden Yards.

An Orioles win coupled with a Mariners loss tonight would have delivered back-to-back postseason berths for the first time since 1996-97. Now, we wait a little longer.

A possible alternative is clinching in their final home game of the regular season. Otherwise, they must do it on a trip that takes them to New York and Minnesota.

The Orioles are 86-69 and in danger of losing their fifth series in a row.

Major League Baseball has adjusted its playoff math and the Orioles actually could clinch a berth tonight rather than Sunday.

The magic number remains at three, but the Orioles will reach the postseason again with a win this afternoon against the Tigers and a Mariners loss tonight in Texas. They’d claim the tie-breaker over Detroit in a complicated scenario.

The Mariners’ game begins at 7:05 p.m., setting up the possibility that the Orioles won't celebrate in the clubhouse. It’s happened in the past, with the team's playoff berth confirmed in 2012 while on a flight to Tampa.

Adding to the unusual circumstances that day was how the charter made an emergency landing in Jacksonville after smoke began pouring out of an oven in the kitchen area. Players reboarded and toasted their first postseason berth since 1997. Seats and windows weren't covered in plastic.

The Orioles haven’t made the playoffs in consecutive years since 1996-97. They qualified in 2012, ’14 and ’16 under former manager Buck Showalter and won the division last season.

Cedric Mullins is back in the Orioles’ lineup today, playing center field and batting second.

Mullins took early batting practice on the field this afternoon with head athletic trainer Brian Ebel watching and also ran the bases. Mullins wasn’t available last night due to neck soreness caused by his collision Thursday with right fielder Austin Slater.

The Orioles selected outfielder Daniel Johnson’s contract to provide a left-handed bat for the outfield in case Mullins couldn’t play. Terrin Vavra is on the 24-hour taxi squad.

Ramón Urías wasn’t reinstated today from the 15-day injured list.

Heston Kjerstad is the designated hitter. Jackson Holliday is playing second base. Colton Cowser is the cleanup hitter.

The return of another injured player to the Orioles’ roster is costing Coby Mayo his spot.

The organization’s No. 1 prospect and Minor League Player of the Year will be optioned later today, according to an industry source. The Orioles haven’t announced the move.

Infielder Ramón Urías appeared in his second rehab game last night with Triple-A Norfolk and could be rejoining the club.

Mayo has played in 17 games with the Orioles and gone 4-for-41 with four walks and 22 strikeouts. He started at first base last night and lined a single into center field in the fourth inning before James McCann homered in a 7-1 win over the Tigers. He shattered his bat earlier on a ground ball to short.

Steady starts have eluded Mayo at the major league level despite injuries to Urías, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle. He cracked the lineup only six times this month.  

The 2024 Most Valuable Oriole will be announced this morning and we’ll find out whether shortstop Gunnar Henderson is a repeat winner.

No player has received the honor in back-to-back seasons since center fielder Adam Jones in 2011-12. Jones also won in 2018.

Shortstop Miguel Tejada came close by winning it in 2004 and 2006. Second baseman Brian Roberts prevented three in a row.

First baseman Rafael Palmeiro finished first in 1995, 1996 and 1998, with closer Randy Myers winning in ’97.

Hall of Famer Eddie Murray had a tremendous run, winning it in 1978, ’81, ’82, ’83 (with Cal Ripken Jr.), ’84, ’85 and ’88 (also with Ripken). Outfielder Ken Singleton earned the award three times in a six-year period beginning in 1975, and Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson did the same beginning in 1960.

Anthony Santander is predictable but never boring. He also knows how to shake an offense out of its slumber. Make loud noises and see who follows.

A line formed behind him.

In his next at-bat after setting off a wild celebration Thursday afternoon with a walk-off homer to beat the Giants, Santander muscled a cutter from Detroit’s Tyler Holton into Section 86 in left-center field in the first inning.

Santander approached second base and motioned to the bullpen, bumped fists with third base coach Tony Mansolino, crossed home plate, looked up to the sky and slapped his hands together. He pointed at his parents in the stands and jogged to the dugout.

The scene is replayed over and over in 2024. He’s on a tear and on a loop.

Two events today made it clear that the Orioles were preparing for a roster move.

Reliever Burch Smith walked to the bullpen this afternoon with pitching coach Drew French, assistant Mitch Plassmeyer and head athletic trainer Brian Ebel. He completed a session and returned to the clubhouse, exiting it after the media arrived at 3:30 p.m.

Left-hander Danny Coulombe returned to the club after three rehab appearances with Triple-A Norfolk, stopping by his locker multiple times and offering a smile to reporters as he passed. He wasn't able to speak about his status until it became official.

Manager Brandon Hyde offered confirmation during his session, saying that Coulombe was reinstated from the 60-day injured list and that Smith would go on the 15-day IL with a right adductor/groin strain.

Coulombe hasn’t pitched for the Orioles since June 8. He underwent surgery later that month to remove bone chips from his left elbow, robbing them of a high-leverage reliever with a 2.42 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in 29 appearances.

Orioles left-hander Danny Coulombe is reinstated from the injured list and available to pitch tonight. Burch Smith goes on the IL with a right adductor/groin strain.

Coulombe is returning from June surgery to remove bone chips in his left elbow.

Smith threw in the bullpen earlier today with head athletic trainer Brian Ebel watching him.

The Orioles lost two of three games to the Tigers last weekend at Comerica Park. They meet again beginning tonight at Camden Yards, but there’s more at stake than revenge.

Yesterday’s 5-3 win over the Giants brought the Orioles within four games of the first-place Yankees with nine more to play. They lead the Royals by three for the home wild card.

Craig Kimbrel sat in front of his locker after the best and especially the worst of his outings. The clubhouse doors opened to the media and he’d be waiting for it. That’s a professional. He didn’t duck reporters and avoid uncomfortable questions about his demise as closer in the second half, how he tried to fix it and why he failed.

The stats will be regurgitated and rightfully so. This is a results-driven business and Kimbrel didn’t produce or provide a sufficient return on the largest contract awarded under executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias.

Kimbrel wasn’t supposed to be Félix Bautista, but he also wasn’t supposed to be Jorge Julio.

It’s worth a reminder, however, that there’s a person behind the inflated ERA, WHIP and blown saves. The Hall of Fame candidate who provided leadership for a bullpen still short on experience. He set an example, and that included how to handle adversity and not redirect it to innocent parties. Place it where it belonged, on his shoulders.

The last time we saw Kimbrel was after manager Brandon Hyde’s media session that followed Tuesday’s 10-0 loss and the career-high six runs that had many fans booing him. Kimbrel sat on a bench outside the clubhouse with wife Ashely and young children Lydia and Joseph, in full dad mode, as if everything was right in his world.

Manager Brandon Hyde isn’t ready or willing to contribute to the publication of his team’s obit. Not with more games to play, possession of the first wild card and champagne to chill. He’ll keep trying to clear the air of any negativity.

Hyde isn’t blind to the season’s downward turn, but he retains full confidence in the Orioles' ability to get hot again.

Beyond the usual injury and rehab updates, Hyde spent most of his nine-minute pregame media session rehashing what’s gone wrong during a sub-.500 second half and slippage in the division race. Exactly when he began to worry. Why slumps are lasting for long periods.

Hyde finished with a quip about his players occupying the top of Triple-A Norfolk’s lineup, rose from his chair and returned to his office. And the Orioles backed his trust.

A blown save in the top of the ninth inning was followed by Anthony Santander's two-run walk-off homer and a much-needed 5-3 win over the Giants before an announced crowd of 23,181 at Camden Yards. Bedlam ensued. The Orioles were eager to release their frustration and it spilled all over the dugout, track and home plate.

The Orioles’ penultimate home series concludes this afternoon with Heston Kjerstad in right field and Jackson Holliday getting back-to-back starts at second base.

Coby Mayo is on the bench.

Zach Eflin is making his eighth start with the Orioles. He’s posted a 2.22 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings.

Eflin has faced the Giants eight times (six starts) and registered a 4.79 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings.

The Orioles trail the Yankees by five games in the division and still lead the Royals by 2 1/2 for the first wild card.

Blame the injuries, inexperience and faulty execution. Blame the weather, traffic, sound system, advertising signs or astrological signs. Whatever suits the narrative. Whatever the imagination allows.

Just be sure to include how the Orioles raised the bar too high and too quickly.

They went from 83 wins in 2022 to 101 and a division title. They set themselves up for regression and criticism. Fans are demanding that heads roll because their favorite team can’t get on one.

No one in their right mind projected 102 or more wins this season, but playing sub-.500 ball since the All-Star break wasn’t in the brochure. Rock bottom keeps moving, too. An 8-1 loss to the historically putrid White Sox was supposed to be it, until the Tigers no-hit them for 8 2/3 innings after using an opener. Until the Orioles responded to Mike Elias’ words of encouragement and optimistic tone Tuesday afternoon by managing only one hit in six innings against the Giants’ Blake Snell, allowing six runs in the top of the ninth and losing 10-0.

The Yankees, meanwhile, were beating the Mariners in Seattle to open a four-game lead in the division race. Now it's five. The Orioles are choking on the fumes, but they can get healthier this month and still make some noise in the postseason.

Dean Kremer’s first pitch of tonight’s game sailed 397 feet to right field for a leadoff home run. Gunnar Henderson began the bottom of the first inning by flying out and slamming his bat to the ground in anger.

Immediate signs of an Orioles’ turnaround weren’t detected. They’d flicker over the course of the night and burn out.

A lead in the third inning and subsequent rallies provided false hope. Walk-up music reverted back to the original playlist, but the Orioles maintained their post-break ways with a 5-3 loss to the Giants before an announced crowd of 23,856 at Camden Yards.

Kremer allowed four earned runs and five total in six innings, the victim of some tough luck, and the Orioles fell to 84-68 with their fifth loss in six games, eighth in 10 and ninth in 12. They’ve gone 26-30 in the second half but maintain a 2 1/2 game lead for the first wild card.

The Orioles are only 16 games above .500 for the first time since May 31. They're 19-26 against the National League.

Craig Kimbel’s old locker is empty except for a row of hangers. His belongings are gone.

The former closer has left the building.

The Orioles designated Kimbrel for assignment earlier today and recalled reliever Bryan Baker. They made the move after he was charged last night with a career-high six runs in two-thirds of an inning, the last straw with his chances for inclusion on the playoff roster dissolved a while ago.

“Tough day,” said manager Brandon Hyde. “We have so much respect for Craig and his career and what he’s done for the game, how long he’s pitched, how long he’s pitched well. So it’s never easy to say goodbye to somebody who’s done a lot.”

Kimbrel, 36, was an All-Star snub after posting a 2.80 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 39 appearances, but he had a 10.59 ERA and 2.177 WHIP in 18 games since the break and never responded to a second reset.

The Orioles have lost eight of 11 games and scored 21 runs in that stretch. Tonight’s lineup combination puts Jackson Holliday at second base after Livan Soto made three consecutive starts, and Heston Kjerstad at designated hitter after he came off the bench last night and singled twice.

James McCann is catching. Emmanuel Rivera is playing third base.

Dean Kremer has five quality starts in his last six outings. He’s posted a 3.76 ERA in the second half.

Kremer has made one career start against the Giants and allowed two runs in six innings. Matt Chapman is 2-for-17 with a home run against him, but San Francisco put him on the paternity list today.

Kremer’s fastballs are generating a whiff rate of 32.1 percent in September, per STATS, which is nearly double his 16.8 rate through August.

The Orioles ran out of time trying to fix Craig Kimbrel.

The club announced today that it designated Kimbrel for assignment and recalled reliever Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk. The 40-man roster has 37 players.

Kimbrel has been scored upon in 11 of his last 19 appearances to leave him with a 5.33 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 57 games. He’s averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings, his highest total in a full season since his rookie campaign in 2010.

The six runs surrendered last night were two more than his previous career high. The nine-time All-Star allowed only seven runs in the entire 2012 season.

The Orioles signed Kimbrel to a contract at the Winter Meetings that paid $12 million this season with a $13 million club option for 2025. Bonuses were added for games pitched and finished.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ media availability yesterday in the home dugout at Camden Yards hinted at bad news.

That’s what happens when an organization is pelted with it. The first instinct is to assume the worst and seek shelter.

There were three options with Elias: One or more of the injured players had a setback, a roster move warranted an explanation, or he just decided to meet the press before the last homestand of the season.

Elias declined to make an opening statement, which destroyed the injury theory. And the roster went unchanged.

“If it’s all right with you guys,” he said, “I’ll just open it up to questions.”

The Orioles didn’t find their mojo tonight.

Talk earlier of getting on a roll proved to be well-intended but hollow. The Orioles were down after two pitches from Albert Suárez, fell further behind in the second inning and lost to the Giants 10-0 before an announced crowd of 23,967 that sat through periods of light rain at Camden Yards.

The club can’t find cover from a steady shower of poor performances.

Their record fell to 84-67 with eight losses in the last 11 games, and the deficit behind the Yankees grew to four.

Craig Kimbrel allowed a season-high four runs in the ninth before leaving the game on a groundball single, uncontested stolen base, wild pitch, walk, fielder’s choice RBI bunt by Brett Wisely with a late throw to the plate, 12-pitch walk, two-run single by LaMonte Wade Jr. and Heliot Ramos’ RBI double. It got worse. Matt Bowman let both inherited runners score on Michael Conforto’s single, leaving Kimbrel with a career-high six runs. He hadn't surrendered more than four in his 15-year career.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias took his turn today providing injury updates to the media, asking in a joking manner for questions to be broken up individually rather than in one lump inquiry. Just trying to simplify the process.

Ryan Mountcastle (wrist) is in a hitting progression down in Sarasota, the most positive news about the first baseman since he was shut down.

“I was there during instructional league yesterday and had a chance to see him work out,” Elias said. “He has a sore wrist and he’s making his way back from that, and that takes a few steps, but I do think we have a really good chance of seeing him playing for Norfolk here pretty soon, and I do think we’re going to get him back, and he’s making a push. And we definitely will take what we can get from him, and we’re hopeful to get him back before the season’s over.”

Jordan Westburg took batting practice for the first time since fracturing his right hand. “Like a normal citizen,” Elias said.

“Jordan’s doing great, too,” Elias added. “We can’t wait to have him back, and we are expecting him back before the end of the regular season. We’re not totally there yet, but it’s going really well.”