A dozen guarantees on the Orioles were published a few days ago, with me reserving the right to claim that my account was hacked if I’m wrong.

The safer road traveled is the one with plenty of exits and nothing concrete.

Here are a dozen subjects that come with assumptions, educated guesses and a range of possibilities, but they can’t be promised. We just don’t know without a crystal ball and a licensed fortune teller.

Are Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez in the opening day rotation?
We know two-fifths of it – Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin. Kremer and Bradish earned the right to keep their jobs. How can you argue it? The club is on record that it wants Rodriguez to start. He has his own cheering section. But it would be wrong to write their names in ink. Too many other candidates, including Tyler Wells, DL Hall and Austin Voth.

The Orioles might or might not piggyback a starter.
It makes sense to do it. Could have six starters in a five-man rotation and better control Rodriguez’s workload. Makes sense not to because, as Mike Elias pointed out, the bullpen basically is reduced to seven relievers. That might be plenty on some teams, but the Orioles’ rotation isn't filled with innings eaters. So yes or no.

Cedric Mullins raised the bar to such impressive heights in 2021 with his first All-Star selection and Silver Slugger award, and becoming the first 30/30 player in Orioles history, that some regression the next summer was bound to happen. He became a tough act to follow. Blame it on himself.

Still productive at the plate, still dangerous on the basepaths and outstanding in the field, but a notch below his overall production.

Mullins established career highs with 64 RBIs and 34 steals. His 32 doubles were just five fewer than in the previous summer, and his 89 runs were only two short. He didn't commit an error and was a finalist for a Rawlings Gold Glove. But his average dropped from .291 to .258 and his OPS from .878 to .721.

Taking the usual offseason self-inventory has led Mullins to one particular area of his game. The decline versus left-handed pitching.

Mullins abandoned switch-hitting two years ago, surrendering to his poor splits and leaving the right side of the batter's box, and slashed .277/.337/.451 against southpaws. But he slashed .209/.265/.313 in 2022, compared to .279/.340/.441 against right-handers.

So close to the start of spring training, so insecure about how much I’m willing to guarantee about the 2023 Orioles.

They won’t move out of Baltimore during the season. Bet the house on it.

They won’t change managers. They won’t change mascots. They won’t change Boog’s BBQ into a vegan concession stand.

But what about the team itself prior to opening day? Here are a dozen:

Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are locks for the rotation.
One signed for $10 million and the other came in a trade that cost infield prospect Darell Hernaiz and is a needed left-hander. Gibson could be the opening day starter in Boston if the Orioles want a right-hander at Fenway Park. The Orioles expect Grayson Rodriguez to break camp in the rotation. They are openly rooting for it. But I can’t issue an absolute guarantee. At least, not at the Gibson/Irvin level.

Four more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers are due at the spring training complex in Sarasota. Where has the time gone?

The mailbag already is in the best shape of its life. Bulky but strong enough to handle the extra weight.

You know the routine. You ask, I answer, you trust that I’m in the know, I trust that you won’t fact-check me. And we have our latest sequel to the beloved original.

Please excuse the reckless disregard for editing. We’re informal here. Take off your shoes, unzip your pants. No one is judging you.

We serve brevity by the buckets. You want more clarity? See an optometrist.

The volatile nature of a major league bullpen can push teams out of their comfort zone and into pure survival mode. Doesn’t matter how good it was in past seasons. Relievers are fickle in nature. They can carry you one summer and let you down the next. Be the pulse and break your heart.

The Orioles departed their camp in 2022 hopeful, but far from certain, that they’d get the necessary support from Félix Bautista, Bryan Baker, Cionel Pérez, Joey Krehbiel and Keegan Akin. They had seen glimpses from Dillon Tate, but nothing that sustained over a full season. They were working to reinvent Jorge López after his failures as a starter.

What resulted was a 3.49 ERA that ranked ninth in the majors and enabled the Orioles to post their first winning record in six years. It instantly made Brandon Hyde a better manager, and a more relaxed one. It meant everything.

Baker had the strongest finish, with his last 11 appearances scoreless over 12 1/3 innings. He flourished when others faded, an unexpected development with only one major league outing prior to joining the Orioles.

The right-hander posted a 2.13 ERA in his final 40 games, compared to a 5.60 ERA in the first 26, which included two starts that fouled up his numbers. The ERA was 1.82 in the last 22 games.

The Orioles are bringing back seven of their minor league managers in the same roles in 2023, but also replacing and relocating several coaches.

Buck Britton will begin his second season as manager at Triple-A Norfolk after top prospects Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson graduated to the majors last summer. Kyle Moore returns to Double-A Bowie, Roberto Mercado to High-A Aberdeen, Felipe Rojas Alou Jr. to Single-A Delmarva, Christian Frias to the Florida Complex League Orioles, and Chris Madera and Elbis Morel to the two Dominican Summer League entries.

Matt Packer shifts to complex coordinator of instruction after managing in the FCL last season. The Orioles are fielding one FCL team this year. They have a sufficient number of players, but only one game scheduled.

Among the new hires are Sherman Johnson as Bowie’s hitting coach and Austin Meine as Aberdeen pitching coach.

Johnson, who replaces Branden Becker, appeared in 10 game with the Angels in 2018 – going hitless in 11 plate appearances – and posted a .362 on-base percentage in nine minor league seasons that included stints in the Reds (2019) and Twins (2021) systems. He spent last year with independent Kane County.

Orioles outfielder Austin Hays takes pride in his ability to field anything that comes his way. Or anyone.

Hays was pouring beers at Crooked Crab Brewing Company in Odenton on Sunday, the Birdland Caravan’s final stop of the weekend, when a woman passed her 5-month-old daughter across the bar. An adorable and safe photo opportunity, with the baby secure in Hays’ hands.

The father of two young sons, Hays joked later that he might need a little girl to complete his family. After all, she did snuggle up against him. He took it as a sign.

In exactly one week, Orioles pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Sarasota and ready for the first workout the following morning. Position players are due the 20^th, but Hays won’t wait that long. He’s driven to give his team a complete season.

Hays avoided the injured list in 2022 but played in pain and delivered two different halves. He batted .270/.325/.454 with 12 home runs and 46 RBIs in the first 85 games and .220/.276/.349 with four homers and 14 RBIs in the last 60.

Players are heading down to Sarasota ahead of the designated report dates for spring training, and not just the five hitting prospects attending the development camp that began yesterday. Gunnar Henderson’s flight landed two days ago. The five Orioles participating in the World Baseball Classic – outfielders Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, pitchers Dean Kremer and Dillon Tate, and infielder Ramón Urías – will arrive early so they can leave camp early.

Rather than getting us closer to identifying the 26-man roster for opening day, it feels like the Birdland Caravan has created more confusion over its composition.

DL Hall may not fit in the mock bullpens, with executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias suggesting that the left-hander could be sent down if unable to make the rotation in spring training.

“That part hasn’t been decided,” Elias said. “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.”

We knew that Hall would arrive in camp as a starter and be stretched out, that the Orioles would keep developing him to occupy a spot in the rotation, but the ‘pen seemed like a solid and logical alternative following his 10 appearances last September. A weapon for the later innings.

The Orioles began their latest development camp this morning at the Ed Smith Stadium complex, with five of their top prospects working out until Feb. 14.

Outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad and infielders Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby are spring training invites receiving an opportunity to meet early with the major league staff and instructors.

Manager Brandon Hyde, co-hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte, offensive strategy coach Cody Asche and strength and conditioning coach Trey Wiedman will be joined by Triple-A Norfolk manager Buck Britton, coordinator of instruction Jeff Kunkel, minor league hitting coach Brink Ambler and High-A Aberdeen development coach Ryan Goll.

Ambler served as Single-A Delmarva’s hitting coach in 2022 after his promotion from minors technology coordinator.

MLB Pipeline ranks Holliday as the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect after they selected him with the first overall pick in last year’s draft. Cowser is fourth, Mayo seventh, Kjerstad ninth and Norby 11^th.

The blonde hair was much shorter, but Kyle Stowers kept his same enthusiasm for being a major league player. The excitement about debuting in August, the smiles as fans lined up to get a photo with him in Salisbury.

He greeted one group as if they were friends from high school.

Stowers isn’t assuming that he’s on the Orioles’ roster for opening day. The chances are good, but to relax about it is risking a rude wakeup call.

“I want to be there,” Stowers said, “and I want to help the team win in every way I can.”

Stowers played in 34 games, the first two in Toronto during a June series after Anthony Santander went on the restricted list due to his vaccination status. The real call-up came in August, with the Orioles still in the thick of the wild card race.

Mike Elias’ choice of word in August, within the infamous “liftoff” quote, caused some confusion regarding payroll flexibility, but it was the first true indicator that he was moving past the rebuild stage and eyeing a much grander one.

Elias told the assembled media at the warehouse Friday morning that the rebuild was over, that it was “behind us.”

That’s liftoff. Different phrasing but the same positive message.  

The Orioles weren’t using up most of their energy on addressing the farm system and creating the talent pipeline that would make them annual contenders. Wins would begin to matter again. The standings would begin to matter again beyond how it influences draft status.

The club is talking about the playoffs, and to anyone who will listen. These aren’t just internal conversations.

SALISBURY - Ryan Mountcastle couldn’t resist. The temptation got the best of him.

Mountcastle had to check out the left field fence at Camden Yards this week while in town for the Birdland Caravan, knowing that it hadn't changed. Giving it another chance to torment him.

“We were up there. It looked about the same,” Mountcastle said yesterday before posing for photos with fans and tending bar at Evolution Craft Brewing in Salisbury.

With his familiar boyish grin, Mountcastle said, “You see all these other parks moving it in, and I guess we’re moving it out. It is what it is.”

The dimensions will be friendlier to the hitters at Ed Smith Stadium, where the Orioles begin spring training in a few weeks.

Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has attained top prospect status by checking all the boxes.

This morning, he spent hours packing them.

The team’s caravan made a stop at the Maryland Food Bank, where Orioles players, employees, executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde served as volunteers sorting and boxing donated items for distribution to food pantries across the state.

Henderson is flying down to Sarasota on Sunday as an early arrival to spring training, but he had other training to do today in Halethorpe.

“It’s been really awesome to be able to give back to the community, just being here in Baltimore before the season and get some meals out to families in need,” said Henderson, who was accompanied by teammates Ryan Mountcastle, Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna.

The Orioles sent out their list of non-roster invites to spring training yesterday with the understanding that other names could appear later. Thirty wasn’t a set number. There’s always room for Jell-O and more lockers at the Ed Smith Stadium complex.

Within hours, left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. He, too, will be in Sarasota, giving the Orioles 38 pitchers in camp, including 12 of the non-roster variety.

The possibility still exists that the Orioles make a waiver claim, sign a free agent or consummate another trade. They aren’t shutting down.

“We’re still working on stuff,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said yesterday during a Q&A with fans at Wilde Lake High School.

Could be pitching, an infielder or an outfielder. And it could be a major league contract.

BEL AIR, Md. – The 2023 Birdland Caravan is underway. Tonight, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde answered fan questions and took part in some other fun activities with fans at Bel Air High School in Harford County.

Tomorrow, Birdland Caravan continues as O's players, coaches and staff meet and greet fans from around the state and region. It continues through Sunday.

A fan at Bel Air tonight asked Elias how the team will handle its strong prospect group now that the club has the playoffs in mind.

“We are in a mode now where we are really, really focused on winning and trying to increase our chances to get into the playoffs as much as possible," Elias said. "And it is going to start coming more at the expense of the player development side in the minor leagues. We just traded a prospect (Darrell Hernaiz) that we really liked for (A’s pitcher) Cole Irvin. So we’re starting to make those tradeoffs a lot more.”

The Orioles won 83 games last year, the most by any non-playoff American League club.

When the Orioles begin spring training workouts later this month in Florida, their initial spring training roster will number 70 players, and that could get larger with any additional signings or acquisitions.

The club today announced that they have invited 30 non-roster players to big league spring training in Sarasota at Ed Smith Stadium. The list includes one left-handed pitcher, 10 right-handed pitchers, four catchers, 10 infielders and five outfielders.

The list includes numerous players who were signed to minor league contracts. It also includes 2022 No. 1 overall draft pick Jackson Holliday and all 11 players recently named to at least one top 100 prospects list by a major outlet. Some of those players were already scheduled to go as part of the 40-man roster. 

PITCHERS (11)

RHP Eduard Bazardo
RHP Wandisson Charles
RHP Kyle Dowdy
RHP Reed Garrett
RHP Ofreidy Gómez
RHP Morgan McSweeney
LHP Cade Povich
RHP Kade Strowd
RHP Cole Uvila
RHP Chris Vallimont
RHP Ryan Watson

The Orioles broke camp last spring with a 28-man roster after Major League Baseball and the union approved its expansion through May 1, one of the changes caused by the lockout. Fifteen of those players weren’t with the club on 2021 opening day: pitchers Jordan Lyles, Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez, Bryan Baker, Keegan Akin, Joey Krehbiel and Mike Baumann, infielders Kelvin Gutiérrez, Rougned Odor, Jorge Mateo and Chris Owings, outfielders Ryan McKenna and DJ Stewart, and catchers Robinson Chirinos and Anthony Bemboom.

Bautista, Pérez, Mateo, McKenna, Baker, Krehbiel, Akin, Baumann and Bemboom remain in the organization, and the others are with new teams or waiting to sign.

Lyles joined the Royals on a two-year, $17 million deal. Odor and Chirinos also made it through the entire season with the Orioles but are major league free agents.

At least a dozen players could be on the charter to Boston who weren’t with the Orioles last opening day: Pitchers Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Mychal Givens, DL Hall and Austin Voth, infielders Gunnar Henderson, Adam Frazier and Terrin Vavra, outfielder Kyle Stowers and catcher James McCann.

Rule 5 selection Andrew Politi will try to squeeze into the bullpen. At least one of the non-roster players - a group that includes first baseman Lewin Díaz and first basemen/outfielders Ryan O’Hearn and Franchy Cordero - will try to be counted among the opening day newcomers with the Orioles.

The Orioles have made a flurry of moves leading into the Winter Meetings that begin Sunday, with today’s news pertaining to the signing of a veteran starting pitcher who's a year removed from his selection to the All-Star team.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson has agreed to a one-year contract pending a physical, as first reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Gibson isn’t the elite starter that the club is seeking, but he can slot near the back end of the rotation and perhaps serve as Jordan Lyles' replacement. The Orioles declined Lyles’ $11 million option.

The 40-man roster will grow to 38 players after Gibson signs.

Gibson, 35, is a former first-round pick in the 2009 draft out of the University of Missouri who has registered a 4.52 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 10 seasons. He spent the first seven with the Twins, parts of the next two with the Rangers and parts of the last two with the Phillies.

While declining an option to extend their stadium lease by five more years at tonight’s deadline, leading to further negotiations that must be resolved by Dec. 31, the Orioles have issued a joint statement with newly elected Governor Wes Moore announcing their mutual commitment to reimagining Camden Yards and delivering "a live, work, play theme that will bring residents, businesses, and tourists to downtown Baltimore year-round.”

Improvements can be made after a new lease is agreed upon with the Maryland Stadium Authority, which unlocks the Orioles’ half of the $1.2 billion in funding that the state set aside for upgrades to the complex.

The press release included mention of “a long-term, multi-decade, public-private partnership that both develops and revitalizes the Camden Yards complex as a magnet for sports tourism and leverages Maryland taxpayers’ investment in the property.”

“When Camden Yards opened thirty years ago, the Baltimore Orioles revolutionized baseball and set the bar for the fan experience,” Moore said in a statement. “We share the commitment of the Orioles organization to ensuring that the team is playing in a world-class facility at Camden Yards for decades to come and are excited to advance our public-private partnership. We look forward to writing the next chapter of major league baseball in Maryland as we continue to make magic for fans and meaningful investment for communities across our state.”

Orioles chairman and CEO John Angelos added in a statement: “I am looking forward to continuing to collaborate with Governor Moore, his administration, and the Maryland Stadium Authority in order to bring to Baltimore the modern, sustainable, and electrifying sports and entertainment destination the State of Maryland deserves.

Each interview or casual conversation with Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias offers further confirmation that he expects his club to stay engaged in the playoff chase after fading over the final week in 2022. The plaudits will be fewer if there’s a repeat, the pain palpable if there’s regression.

It's wild card or busted expectations.

“We’re in the mode now where we are very serious about getting into the playoffs despite the difficulties in our division,” Elias said during Sunday’s interview on MLB Network Radio.

“We think we’ve got a real good shot to get into the postseason this year. We almost got in last year, so the time is now to tap into the depth in our farm system.”

Let’s start here, with the latest indication that the Orioles are pleased with the upgrades made during an offseason that’s lacked any splashy moves, but also heavily reliant on their prospects influencing the team’s direction.