Taking Orioles rotation for another spin and playing the numbers game

Grayson Rodriguez black jersey

The next story posted here will have a Sarasota dateline.

Get used to it.

Orioles pitchers and catchers report today, with the first workout unfolding on Thursday, coinciding with the beginning of media access. Players will take their physicals and hit the fields. The sounds of baseball will puncture the silence.

Bring on the suspense.

The start button will be pressed for the march toward another division title and much deeper dive into the playoffs. To be one-and-done again will be unacceptable. To simply contend will be setting goals way too low.

A few more Orioles spring training storylines

Cade Povich Bowie 3

While most eyes will rest upon Jackson Holliday, other prospects, and major pitching additions Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel at spring training, there are plenty of storylines to go around during those six weeks. Lots to fill notepads and space on laptop screens. Lots to keep fingers busy.

Checking under the radar ideas can put a reporter over the top.

Top Orioles prospect rankings are light on pitching, but Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott tend to be listed back-to-back within the first dozen or so, and they’re counted among the camp invites. McDermott was the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.  

Both pitchers are eyeing 2024 for their major league debuts. They won’t break camp with the team, but their arrivals could come later.

“I mean, it’s a goal I have for sure,” Povich said at the Birdland Caravan. “Obviously, things have to fall into place. Just kind of trust the work I’ve done this offseason and hope whatever comes, comes.”

Burnes' impact on Orioles bullpen and other camp competitions

Tyler Wells orange jersey

I’ve written about the end of a traditional spring training storyline, the blame falling upon the broad shoulders of James McCann. Only an injury can spark a debate over the identity of the backup catcher.

It’s happening again with the Opening Day starter.

The Orioles didn’t trade for Corbin Burnes to put him behind someone else in the rotation. The announcement is a formality. Manager Brandon Hyde will be asked about it multiple times in camp, probably in a joking manner. Or for planning purposes, allowing beat writers to launch their stories.

Kyle Gibson wasn’t the immediate choice last winter, but he morphed into the favorite in Sarasota based on his experience, impressive results and the lack of an obvious alternative. If not him, whom?

John Means was handed the ball in back-to-back seasons, after losing the assignment to Tommy Milone in 2020 – yes, Tommy Milone – due to a “tired arm.”

Because You Asked - The Scargiver

Colton Cowser gray

Being aware of the mounting number of airline safety issues, I’m afraid to bring a heavy mailbag to Sarasota and risk having the landing gear fail or a few bolts bust off the wings.

Let’s lighten the load here in our last pre-spring training sequel to the beloved original in 2008.

You ask, I answer, you wonder if I’ve finally relented and began doing some editing, and I wonder if you started drinking early.

I adore your style, length (shut up), clarity and brevity. To change it would be like tossing soup on the Mona Lisa.

Also, a reminder that my mailbag refuses to be pushed around or disrespected, and yours does a bully’s homework.

Bar raised for Orioles as they approach spring training

Dean Kremer throw orange spring away

Whatever speech that Orioles manager Brandon Hyde chooses for his team prior to the first full-squad workout at spring training, he won’t be armed with the same motivational tools that he wielded in the past.

Nobody believed in the Orioles during those 100-loss seasons. They had no reason.

Seemed like everyone was expecting a regression after 83 wins in 2022. They had no faith.

Matching or exceeding the 101 victories last summer that led to a division title and top seeding in the American League playoffs is a tall order. Players don’t seem concerned about trying to reach it.

A few of them dropped 102 into the conversations at the Birdland Caravan, before the Corbin Burnes trade, but more in a joking manner than stated or necessary goals.

A recap and review of recent Orioles activity

Livan Soto Angels jersey

Five more days.

Orioles pitchers and catchers must report to the Ed Smith Stadium complex by Wednesday, a deadline that doesn’t create a frantic race to the finish line. The complex already has activity. Early arrivals are the norm.

But that’s when it must happen, followed the next morning by the first workout and farmer's tan.

Perhaps the Orioles will quiet the roster churn. They’ve stayed busy, with No. 1 starter Corbin Burnes the major move but the utility competition increasing with Wednesday night’s trade for Nick Maton and Thursday afternoon’s waiver claim of Liván Soto.

Every announcement can lead to a question. Let’s begin with Maton.

O's claim Livan Soto, 40-man roster now full

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With spring training starting next week and the club’s first pitchers and catchers workout set for a week from today in Sarasota, the Orioles added another infielder to fill their 40-man roster.

Venezuelan-born Livan Soto, recently designated for assignment by the Angels, was claimed on waivers today by the Orioles to fill their 40-man.

Soto, 23, has hit better in the majors in limited time than he has during a six-year career in the minors. He also has two options remaining.

The lefty batter went just 2-for-9 (.222) with the Angels last year but hit .400 (22-for-55) during the 2022 season over 18 games. He got a call-up in mid-September 2022 to make his major league debut. 

So over 22 major league games in parts of the last two seasons, he has hit .375/.414/.531/.946. On the farm last season between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .237/.342/.358/.700 in 110 games.

After Burnes addition, how does O's rotation stack up?

Grayson Rodriguez

Now that they have added the 2021 National League Cy Young award winner, right-hander Corbin Burnes, just how good is the Orioles rotation? Does it stack up among the top groups in the American League?

A discussion of this on MLB Network this week led the analysts to ponder that question and believe the answer is likely yes.

They listed a graphic of “notable 2024 projected rotations" in the American League, listing in no particular order, Seattle, Baltimore, New York, Houston and Toronto.

Here are the pitchers projected to be in all five:

Seattle: Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo

Orioles announce 2024 minor league and player development staffs (updated)

Orioles announce 2024 minor league and player development staffs (updated)

The Orioles today announced their minor league coaching and player development staff assignments for the 2024 season. Three full-season managers return, but two move to different affiliates.

Buck Britton will return for his third season as manager of the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. In 2023, he led the Tides to a record of 90-59 as they won the International League championship and the Triple-A National Championship Game. Last year, he was the winner of the Orioles’ Cal Ripken Sr. Player Development Award.

Roberto Mercado moves up to Double-A Bowie to serve as manager after leading High-A Aberdeen the last two seasons. In 2022, he took Aberdeen to the playoffs and won the Ripken Sr. Award.

Felipe Rojas Alou Jr. will move up to manage Aberdeen. He has been with the O’s organization for 16 years and managed Single-A Delmarva the last two seasons.

Collin Woody will be a first-time manager, taking over at Delmarva. He served as a fundamentals coach the last two seasons in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League.

Prospects ranking season winds down

Basallo

As yet another top 100 prospects list was published recently by a major outlet and then yet another - by ESPN.com first and then The Athletic – once again Jackson Holliday of the Orioles was ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the sport.

This is long since no surprise as he ended last season atop prospects lists and will begin this year No. 1 via Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and the two listed above.

Just yesterday, Holliday was among the list of 20 non-roster invitees heading to spring training, which begins in Sarasota, Fla. next week.  

While the Orioles list of players via Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com, ESPN and The Athletic is significant, what is most impressive is that most of their top 100 players are really top 50.

Of the six Orioles that were rated top 100 by Baseball America, three were in the top 25 and five were in the top 41. They are down to five now with DL Hall at No. 93 now a Brewer. Of the six rated top 100 by MLBPipeline, five were top 32. They are down to five there with Joey Ortiz at No. 63 now a Brewer. Of the seven ranked by ESPN (six minus Ortiz), five are top 50. The Athletic lists three among the top 27. 

Holliday, Basallo, Mayo among O's spring invites (Hays arbitration note)

Basallo

The Orioles have a star-studded prospects list and the No. 1 farm in baseball, and their top three prospects are among their list of 20 spring training non-roster invitees announced today by the club.

The Orioles report on Feb. 14 to Sarasota, Fla., with their first workout for pitchers and catchers set for Feb. 15 and with the first full-squad workout to be held on Feb. 20.

Infielder Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, gets the expected NRI along with the club's No. 2 prospect, catcher Samuel Basallo, and their No. 3 (as ranked by Baseball America), infielder Coby Mayo.

The No. 4 and No. 5 prospects - outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, who are already on the 40-man roster - will also report to Sarasota. All 40-man roster players join the club for spring training along with the NRIs.

The club recently dealt its No. 6 and No. 7 prospects, per Baseball America - DL Hall and Joey Ortiz - to Milwaukee for right-handed starter Corbin Burnes. The O's No. 8 prospect, infielder Connor Norby, is also among the non-roster invites. 

Bobby Witt Jr. becomes latest young MLB star to sign big bucks extension

Bobby Witt jr.

The deal was announced, and the news was probably just minutes old when some around Birdland wondered whether their team might soon have interest in a similar arrangement.

Monday afternoon, the Kansas City Royals, who ranked 24th in 2023 in MLB team payroll, a few steps ahead of the Orioles, locked up one of their bright young stars to a huge contract.

When your team has its own bright young starts – players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and maybe soon will be adding Jackson Holliday to that list - it’s only natural to wonder and hope that they remain Orioles for a long, long time.

While the Royals extension deal with shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., 23, has opt-outs, they don’t start until after the 2030 season. He will have nine years in the majors at that point.

Signing up young talent well before free agency is a gamble when any team does it. But it is one pre-emptive strike that the so-called “small market” clubs have against losing those players later to the big spenders via free agency.

Fondly remembering those two years I worked at the side of a baseball legend

Mike Martin FSU coach

Somebody has to be No. 1. Some man or woman has to be the one person that has more college wins than any coach ever in any sport.

That man was the 40-year legendary baseball coach of the Florida State Seminoles, Michael David Martin Sr.

In his 40 years as head coach of the Seminoles under coach Martin, they went 40-for-40 in making the NCAA tourney and yes that is beyond remarkable. His 2,029 wins are more than any college baseball coach ever and more than any NCAA coach ever in any sport on any level.

The Seminoles won 19 conference titles under Martin's leadership, and he was a 13-time conference Coach of the Year. He was the National Coach of the Year in 2012 and 2019. 

Martin had 20 players selected in the first round of the MLB Draft and 60 former players reached the Major Leagues. Eight former players were named National Player of the Year with four – Mike Fuentes, Mike Loynd, J.D. Drew and Buster Posey – recognized with the Golden Spikes Award, college baseball's Heisman Trophy.

Can Burnes be the O's Eovaldi when October arrives?

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When he met with the media on Friday to discuss the Orioles' acquisition of 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias summed up the feelings of a lot of people with a few words. 

“This is a big trade and big moment for our team,” Elias told reporters. “Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed.”

And that about sums up much of the reaction across the industry – it’s pretty positive about the big move where the O’s got their ace. One they had been seeking with, as Elias said, “dogged pursuit the entire offseason.”

He and his front office made a deal that not only elevated the team’s chances to make the playoffs and win another American League East title, but maybe make a deep run when October arrives.

"There are a lot of things to be excited about here in Birdland right now. We’ve got everything going for us right now,” Elias said summing up the feeling right now of much of the fan base. Again with a few words.

More with Elias and the ace pitcher he traded for to lead the rotation

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Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias disagreed when a reporter suggested yesterday that his acquisition of ace pitcher Corbin Burnes from the Brewers may represent a shift in the O's organization.

Where once the O’s seemed reluctant to part with prospects, this time they traded two of them and a draft pick to get the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner.

“I don’t see it that way whatsoever,” said Elias. “The methods that we have applied to rebuild the team, are being applied with all our decision making in baseball operations. The whole time, even when our team was losing a lot of games, I was talking about making decisions oriented toward enhancing our playoff possibilities. And at that time, our playoff possibilities were in the future, and now we’ve won the AL East. That front loads a lot of stuff into the present, but we’re still going to keep an eye on the future to keep the organization healthy.

“The Brewers have a good team, too, and they decided this was a trade they wanted to do. It made sense for them and is going to help their team in a different way. We’re trying to make good quality moves which give us good chances to do what we want to do."

And to be fair, Elias did trade prospects last year, once before the year to add Cole Irvin and at the trade deadline to get Jack Flaherty. It's just this time he got the most talented of that group and a pitcher to front his rotation with massive credentials. 

New Oriole Corbin Burnes on trade, his new team and possible contract extension talks

Corbin Burnes Brewers white 2

After feeling some initial shock when he was told he was going to be traded, new Orioles right-hander Corbin Burnes is now starting to let the big news in his world settle in now.

After six seasons, 167 games, a Cy Young Award, five playoff appearances and three division titles – all with the Brewers – he’s about to get know new players and a new organization.

“Initial reaction, just shock,” Burnes was honest to tell Baltimore media during a team Zoom call this afternoon. “Being so close to spring training and what had gone down the last couple of weeks in Milwaukee, was definitely shocked, got the call from the GM and kind of set off a flurry of calls after that.

“But excited to be part of the Baltimore organization. Having won over 100 games last year it’s a good young group. I’m looking to kind of put my mark and do whatever I can to help those guys get to the World Series.”

The 2021 National League Cy Young winner got off to a bit of slow start last season. Then he posted an ERA of 2.71 his last 14 starts to finish 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA. He led the NL in WHIP at 1.069 and his .200 average against was second in the league. Since 2020, his ERA of 2.86 produces an ERA+ of 146.

Mike Elias on the trade: "Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed"

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Calling it a “big moment for our team,” Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias, via Zoom call with the media today, discussed the acquisition of right-hander Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

Elias said trade talks with the Brewers have been ongoing since just after the World Series ended. He wasn’t sure if Milwaukee would actually deal the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner. But the trade was finalized last night as the Orioles sent lefty DL Hall, infielder Joey Ortiz and the No. 34 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft to the Brewers get Burnes.

The 29-year-old three-time All-Star and 2022 NL strikeout leader went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts in 2023. He had an ERA of 2.43 in winning the ’21 Cy Young and has a career 3.26 ERA and 1.055 WHIP.

Since the 2020 season, he has finished, in order, sixth, first, seventh and eighth in the Cy Young voting while pitching to an ERA of 2.86 in that span. That is an ERA+ of 146.

“This is a big trade and big moment for our team,” Elias told reporters. “Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed. We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason.

A few thoughts on Burnes trade

Corbin Burnes Brewers white 3

We entered the month of February exactly two weeks away from the Orioles’ first workout for pitchers and catchers. The most recent transaction was their minor league deal with first baseman-turned-pitcher Ronald Guzmán, two days after the minor league deal with outfielder Daniel Johnson. The last major league move was the trade for corner infielder Tyler Nevin on Jan. 22 that left the 40-man roster with 39 players.

Closer Craig Kimbrel was the undisputed champion of impact additions with his signing at the Winter Meetings to a contract that guarantees $13 million and includes a club option for 2025.

Time remained, but teams holding aces weren’t folding to the pressure to trade them.

And then, it happened.

The Orioles defied the predictions and acquired a starter who fit at the top of the rotation. Not a middle-to-back-end arm. A former Cy Young Award winner, a three-time All-Star and one of the best pitchers in baseball.

A good rotation gets better as O's add right-hander Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes

Outside of the excitement over the weekend of Birdland Caravan, the new ownership group news and getting an ace pitcher, anything else going on around Birdland lately?

The Orioles rotation, which was pretty good most of last year and very good in the second half, just got better for the 2024 season. Last October, it was the Rangers who had Nathan Eovaldi as a difference maker. The O’s hope Corbin Burnes could be that guy this October.

You don’t see legit aces traded very often, but Milwaukee pulled the trigger on a move that hurt them in ’24 but may be big for their future as they add lefty DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz. They also got the No. 34 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

The O’s added a true No. 1 pitcher and now their top four in the rotation features two pitchers that have finished in the top four at least once for the Cy Young voting, another that has made an All-Star team – giving them two All-Stars in the rotation – plus a young stud that was once the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball.

How do we like it? Let’s count some ways.

Orioles acquire Brewers righty Corbin Burnes in trade

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One day after the Orioles' pending ownership change was announced by the club, the team tonight announced it has acquired the frontline starting pitcher it sought all winter with a trade for Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes.

The Orioles are sending lefty pitcher DL Hall, infielder Joey Ortiz and a 2024 draft pick to Milwaukee to get the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner. The pick is the No. 34 overall selection, a Competitive Balance Round A pick. Competitive Balance picks are the only ones that can be traded. After this deal, the Orioles would still have the Nos. 22 and 32 picks in this summer’s draft.

The last four seasons in Cy Young voting, Burnes, 29, has finished sixth, first, seventh and eighth. He is a three-time All Star.

Burnes is, at this point, a one-year addition for the Orioles. He is repped by Scott Boras and can be a free agent at the end of the 2024 season.

Last year for the Brewers, he went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA over 32 starts and 193 2/3 innings with a 1.069 WHIP, a 3.1 walk rate and 9.3 strikeout rate.