Could recent signings provide framework for a Santander deal?

santander v TEX

Some projections when free agency was just beginning had outfielder Anthony Santander getting $100 million and maybe more whenever he signs his next contract.

Free to sign with any team, Santander is still out there for any club to sign, but maybe some recent deals provide a framework for his next one.

As free agency opened up, MLBTradeRumors.com projected that Santander, ranked as its No. 9 free agent, would get a four-year deal for $80 million. ESPN projected he would sign for three years and $69 million. FanGraphs.com predicted five years for $100 million and The Athletic put it at five years and $105 million.

An Oriole since the 2016 Rule 5 draft and for parts of eight big league seasons, Santander is expected to sign elsewhere, especially after the Orioles added outfielder Tyler O’Neill via free agency.

For his 2024 season on offense, Santander hit .235/.308/.506/.814 with 25 doubles, two triples, 44 homers, 91 runs and 102 RBIs.

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A few Orioles facts and a few opinions

Corin Burnes

After a few days away, we’re back today with a new blog and hopefully some fresh thoughts and takes to lead us into the New Year.

For now, a few facts and opinions.

Fact: O’s 2024 ace pitcher Corbin Burnes is headed to Arizona to pitch for the 2025 season.

Opinion: The Orioles' current rotation, even minus Burnes, could be solid but is now missing the pitcher who finished fifth for the American League Cy Young Award. So how will the O’s make up for this loss? For me, it’s never a one-for-one type thing in that they add this player to replace that player. All players they use in 2025 could partially help replace those not back.

There are no longer any aces left via the free agent market but perhaps the team could deal for a top pitcher, as it did with Burnes last Feb. 1.

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Three Orioles questions to consider

Zach Eflin

Rather than ask (beg?) for more mailbag questions, I decided today to pose a few of my own.

Here are three for you to consider. Share your answers.

If the Orioles don’t acquire a No. 1 starter, should Zach Eflin or Grayson Rodriguez start on Opening Day?

Eflin has the edge in experience and track record. He’s also good, so the assignment wouldn’t be based only on those two factors.

The Rays named Eflin their Opening Day starter this year, and he held the Blue Jays to one run through five innings before the game unraveled for him in a five-run sixth. He surrendered three home runs in an 8-2 loss.

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Playing with Orioles lineups (Burnes in agreement with Diamondbacks)

Ryan Mountcastle

If the Orioles are, indeed, done with the position side of their roster beyond maybe some minor league signings, we can begin crafting lineups against right-handed and left-handed starters.

Why? Because what else are you gonna do besides eat leftovers and talk about Corbin Burnes?

The chatter now has him seeking at least $245 million. I’ll gladly wear it if wrong.

(Update: Burnes is in agreement with the Diamondbacks on a six-year, $210 million contract, allowing him to pitch close to home. The New York Post's Jon Heyman was first with the news. The deal includes an opt-out after two seasons. The Orioles reportedly were aggressive in their pursuit but remain without a No. 1 starter via free agency or trade.)

I’m correct when I say that the Orioles can go with many combinations and the lineup construction often hinges on who’s hot and who’s not. An extended Gunnar Henderson slump, for example, can lower him from the leadoff spot. Same goes for a middle-of-the-order bat. And there are multiple choices for a designated hitter against a right-handed starter.

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Holiday mailbag leftovers for breakfast

Pete Alonso

Here’s hoping that everyone had a wonderful holiday spent with the ones you love. And that you tolerated the rest without incident.

I put a bow on the mailbag and noticed some extra questions. It can’t be emptied. It just keeps reproducing like Philip Rivers.

Here they are.

Haven't asked in a bit but what is the status on upgrading the parks sound system? I know it would be helpful for all.
Any major upgrades won’t be completed until 2026, but I’ve heard that improvements are planned for the sound system to get through 2025. And I agree that it would be helpful. As I’ve said, we can’t hear anything clearly from the press box, including the Opening Day ceremonies. I just tell Rob Long or whoever has the microphone that they looked good.

Will the Orioles sign a free agent before the New Year or are they on vacation until then?
They don’t shut down over the holidays. Deals can get done. It only takes a phone call. But I’ll predict that we don’t get more news until after Jan. 1. Just a guess.

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A few quick thoughts and this wish on Christmas Day 2024

Orioles-helmet-blac_20220418-215406_1

On Christmas Day 2024, if I could give something to every person alive, it would be the abilities to be humble, nice and respectful to each other every day in every way.

As I traveled recently, a big smile on my face in going through another adventure, I noticed so many people just look unhappy. Many probably are unhappy.

So many seem to think of themselves first often and seldom those around them. Too bad. We never know what someone else is dealing with or what burdens they carry.

I once told Jim Palmer it warms my heart that Hall of Fame Orioles like him and Brooks Robinson were always so very nice to the fans.

“Steve, it doesn’t take much to be nice,” he told me.

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MLB free-agent pitchers are chasing the dollars and getting more than most projections

Blake Snell giants

Baseball America recently wrote about the findings of Major League Baseball’s study on pitching injuries and what it meant for amateur youth pitchers.

The study found – to no real surprise – that youth pitchers are throwing too much, too hard, and too often. This is leading to long-term injuries. Again, no one should be surprised.

They are chasing the dollars of MLB and before that the scholarships from top Div. I schools that lead them to get drafted that lead them to pro ball and possibly one day to the big dollars of the majors.

How big?

Price tags are going up.

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Some Orioles opinions and observations

Corbin Burnes black

I’ve heard the speculation that Corbin Burnes could sign for less years at a higher annual average value, perhaps going as low as three years.

I’ll believe that when I see it. Not a minute beforehand.

There’s some logic in getting paid big on a shorter term and re-entering free agency at age 33. A sliver of logic. Thinly sliced like garlic with a razor on “Goodfellas.”

The pitching market melted a little more Sunday with the Marlins sending left-hander Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies - an injury risk but one of the most appealing starters on the trade market. Max Fried signed with the Yankees, receiving $218 million over eight seasons. Blake Snell got $182 million over five years from the Dodgers. Nathan Eovaldi exceeded some expectations by receiving $75 million over three years to stay with the Rangers. Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Red Sox.

Japanese right-hander Rōki Sasaki is out there and predicted by many in the industry to sign with a West Coast team if it isn’t one based in New York. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta sit in the next-tier group. Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler just left it.

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Orioles reach minors contract terms with three

Orioles-Logo

The Orioles have made the following roster moves:

  • Agreed to terms on 2025 minor league contracts with OF Jordyn Adams, RHP Matt Bowman, and RHP Gerald Ogando.
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Taking stock of the current Baltimore rotation

eflin o's debut

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

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Pre Holliday edition: Several questions for O's fans

Adley Rutschman

Today, it’s another edition, our pre-Holiday edition, of several questions for O’s fans. Per usual, answer one question or all of them. Respond to other readers' answers with your takes on their takes. 

On to the questions:

1) Where does right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano slot into the O’s rotation? And after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA in Japan, how well will he do for the 2025 Orioles?

2) Which player will bat leadoff the most next season?

3) Which player will lead the 2025 O’s in home runs and hit how many?

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Serving mailbag leftovers for breakfast

Tomoyuki Sugano

Before we get to the holiday leftovers and play the game of “does this smell OK,” we should dig a little deeper into the mailbag.

Grab a shovel.

My editing consisted of thinking “maybe I should” and changing it to “absolutely not.”

The bullpen sorely lacked strikeouts in 2024. Was that due more to lousy luck or the arms not having strong "out" pitches? How do they improve on that in 2025?
The Orioles ranked 22nd in relief strikeouts with 571. They were 14th in 2023 with 614, and the total would have been higher with a healthy September from Félix Bautista. His return figures to ramp up the Ks. A full season from Seranthony Domínguez, who averages 10.4 per nine innings in his career, also is going to make a difference. You could say the same about Gregory Soto, who averaged 11.2 with the Phillies and 10.7 with the Orioles. Yennier Cano struck out 65 batters to match last year’s total, but he did it in 60 innings compared to 72 2/3 in 2023. Keegan Akin has averaged 10.3 and 11.1 the past two seasons in 23 2/3 and 78 2/3 innings, respectively. Danny Coulombe averaged 9.7, but only in 29 2/3 innings due to his elbow surgery. How was this team 22nd?

I see that Cedric Mullins is now a member of the Executive Committee for the MLBPA. I'd be interested in knowing what is currently being discussed and how Cedric feels about being part of the inner workings of the Players Association.
That isn’t a question. Me, too, and he’ll be asked about it if he’s at the Birdland Caravan or in spring training.

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Can O's Dean Kremer hit a higher gear in 2025?

Dean Kremer

When the Orioles begin the 2025 season, there is a pretty good chance right-hander Dean Kremer will be in their rotation. As he has been for the last few seasons.

Kremer posted an ERA of 3.23, a career best, in 21 starts in 2022. But he had a 4.12 ERA the next season, and last season it was 4.10.

That ERA was essentially league average: an ERA+ of 99 in 2023 and his ERA+ was 92 last year. His career mark is 4.28, so the O’s appreciate Kremer’s efforts, of course, but must wonder if he can find a higher gear.

Kremer, who turns 29 on Jan. 7, has just over three years of service time and is arbitration-eligible for the first time. He could get around $3.5 million via arbitration, per MLBTradeRumors.com. He cannot be a free agent until after the 2027 season.

In 2023, Kremer made 32 starts and the O’s had an outstanding 24-8 record in those games. They went 10-14 in his 24 starts this past season.

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In scouting ballplayers, does character matter?

Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser

Mike Snyder just completed his 16th season with the Orioles. He was inherited by Mike Elias when he joined the Orioles but has proven to be a key lieutenant to the O’s executive vice president and general manager.

Snyder completed his first year in the role of senior director of professional scouting after being promoted in October of 2023. In this role, he oversees the club’s pro scouting and player analysis across the majors, minors, and Asian professional leagues, as well as assisting with contract negotiations, 40-man roster construction, player transactions, and departmental hiring.

He has a hand in evaluating talent ranging from a minor league player who may have little chance to make the majors to some of the best players in all of MLB.

He has plenty of resources at his disposal no doubt and reams of stats, data and video to check as well as his in-person scouting looks.

But does character matter too? What role does that play when the O’s look to acquire a player?

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More with 2024 Bowie manager Roberto Mercado on Baysox players

Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Today in this space a few more comments from 2024 Double-A Bowie manager Roberto Mercado on a few of his players with the Baysox this year.

I interviewed Mercado after the Arizona Fall League season when he led Surprise to the AFL title game. During that interview we talked about his Fall League experience but also about several of his 2024 Baysox players.

One pitcher that impressed him was right-hander Cameron Weston, the club’s round eight pick in 2022 out of the University of Michigan.

He had solid stats pitching in four games at the start of last season for High-A Aberdeen before he moved to Bowie and pitched in 23 more games with 14 starts.

Despite his good 2024 and career numbers, Weston is not ranked in the current MLBPipeline.com O’s top 30 prospects list.

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Sugano reshuffles latest Orioles mock 26-man roster

Tomoyuki Sugano

The holiday week is right around the corner, when baseball doesn’t have to shut down but often gets quiet.

The Orioles traded for pitcher Jonathan Heasley on Dec. 18, 2023 and didn’t announce another move until signing free-agent catchers David Bañuelos and Michael Pérez on the 30th. Their only transactions in December 2021 were minor league deals due to the lockout, the last on the 15th. But they made an exception in 2022 with a flurry that included the James McCann trade and Mychal Givens signing on the 21st and sending first baseman Lewin Díaz to the Braves on the 23rd.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias got agreements on two major league contracts right before this year’s Winter Meetings, securing outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez, and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano signed with the club on Monday.

The roster probably isn’t done undergoing changes. Elias seems intent on finding at least one more reliever and he could continue his pursuit of a starter despite Sugano’s $13 million contract. Sugano isn’t a No. 1, which either keeps the search alive or leaves the Orioles choosing between Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin and being satisfied with bolstering the middle of the rotation.

The 40-man roster is full and a 13-man pitching staff unexpectedly includes Sugano at $13 million. Per the Associated Press, he also can earn an additional $50,000 for an All-Star selection, $100,000 for winning the Cy Young Award, $75,000 for finishing in second place, $50,000 for finishing in third, $50,000 for winning a Gold Glove; $100,000 for being World Series Most Valuable Player, and $50,000 for being Championship Series MVP.

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O's will try to help prospects overcome early struggles at MLB level

Coby Mayo

For the Orioles in recent years, seeing a highly-ranked prospect come up and produce right away has been a challenge. Frankly, it’s a challenge for a lot of players and teams.

Any move up the minor league ladder can be a challenge for a young player but the move to the majors is the hardest. Hard to get there, sometimes harder to stay there.

The O’s can go back to Cal Ripken Jr. to see his rough start in the majors. More recently, then No. 1 ranked prospect Adley Rutschman came up in May of 2022. After his first 20 big league games, he was batting .176 with no homers or RBIs. Colton Cowser hit .115 in 2023, and Grayson Rodriguez had an ERA of 7.35 his first 10 MLB starts. Now he’s a top of the rotation type pitcher.

In 2024, elite prospects like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo had some big-time MLB struggles.

During the Winter Meetings, O’s director of player development Anthony Villa was asked about how the organization can try to help their top prospects get off to better starts when they arrive in the big leagues?

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Leftovers for breakfast

Dominican Academy opening

The 11-month mark arrived Monday since the opening ceremony of the Orioles’ new, state-of-the-art training academy in Guerra, Dominican Republic.

The 22.5-acre complex is home to the organization’s regional facility for Caribbean, Central and South American player development operations, with three full fields, a sports turf agility field, batting and pitching tunnels, dormitories, administrative buildings, entertainment spaces, a dining room with nutritious meals, and three classrooms with a computer lab. The expectation was that more than 100 players, coaches and staff would be housed there.

“It’s an incredibly impressive facility,” manager Brandon Hyde said that day. “I just think it’s so well done and it means a ton for the organization because this is part of the lifeblood of our team and lifeblood of our organization is signing players and giving them a great facility to train in. And this is the step one for a lot of our young players that we signed that are going to be Baltimore Orioles, and to have them be in this sort of facility is incredible.

“Everything is done extremely well, just from the fields to the artificial surface for the agility field, to what the clubhouse and the classrooms look like. Just a really, really well designed facility, and looking forward to our young players using it. I didn’t really know what to expect. I’ve been to a couple of facilities down here before. Every one is a little bit different, but this is like modern and this is a really, really, new-age type of facility.”

More young players will be arriving with the international signing period beginning on Jan. 15.

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O's Koby Perez on Samuel Basallo and more (O's add pitcher from Japan)

Samuel Basallo

With 13 international players ranked among the O’s top 30 prospects by MLBPipeline.com, the club’s international program keeps humming along.

It’s big for the Orioles to have both quantity and quality coming from the international prospects. Not only are players like Samuel Basallo getting close now to the majors, but the high number of ranked international prospects will help the O’s mainly a highly-ranked and fertile farm system.

Basallo remains the shining star, having played his age 19 season in 2024. He ends the year ranked as the No. 13 top 100 prospect by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.

Over 127 games between Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) and Triple-A Norfolk, Basallo who turned 20 on Aug. 13, hit .278/.341/.449/.790 with 25 doubles, 19 homers and 65 RBIs.

Basallo produced an .820 OPS with Bowie with 16 homers, 55 RBIs. He hit just .222 with the Tides but batted .297 with an .810 OPS his last 11 games, after going 7-for-44 his first 10 games.

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Mailbag leftovers for breakfast

Trevor Rogers

I couldn’t get to a few questions in the weekend mailbag and wanted to publish them before they got stale, like the bread used to make stuffing for your holiday turkey.

By the way, it’s dressing if prepared outside the bird. Let me address that one before it’s asked.

Here are some extras while we wait for Orioles news.

Is the offseason plan to just hope Grayson Rodriguez stays healthy and becomes the ace they hope?
I wouldn’t say it’s a “plan.” It isn’t preventing the Orioles from acquiring a top starter. But they certainly hope that he can go the distance and reach his enormous potential. Gotta stop with the lat and shoulder soreness. He could be an ace if he’s healthy. He’s got that kind of stuff.

Who's your early minor league dark horse(s) to make their MLB debut in 2025?
Here’s one for you that’s outside the (batter’s) box: Catcher Maverick Handley is on the taxi squad and has his contract selected because of an injury. He’s already in the clubhouse and the team doesn’t want to play shorthanded. It happened twice this year with catcher David Bañuelos and he received his first and only major league at-bat. Bañuelos was the leading taxi squad guy this year, but Handley has done it in the past.

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