Here we are again, blowing up roster projections in November. Stand back and cover your ears.

I want to cover my eyes every time one of my locks doesn’t pan out.

We learned more about the roster with yesterday's non-tender of right-handed reliever Jacob Webb. We know that Emmanuel Rivera has a $1 million contract that doesn’t guarantee him an Opening Day introduction. He’s out of options and the infield is crowded.

It appears to be the only set position. The Orioles could use a right-handed hitting outfielder and at least one starting pitcher. They need a backup catcher. And they’ve decided to make changes in the bullpen.

They seemed to have their eight relievers before removing Webb and left-hander Danny Coulombe, who combined for a 2.71 ERA and two elbow injuries. Coulombe underwent surgery to remove a bone chip and missed three months.

Major League Baseball has reached another important deadline today, with teams required to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. It’s known as the “non-tender” date. Good for baseball, bad for steakhouse chefs.

The Orioles went a surprising 17-for-17 last year and they have 13 players to consider this afternoon. As usual, there are the slam dunks and the shaky on the perimeters.

The list stood at 16 before the Orioles did some whittling, including the decision to pick up left-handed reliever Cionel Pérez’s $2.2 million option for 2025. They could have declined it and negotiated a new deal.

Pitchers Matt Bowman and Burch Smith elected free agency rather than outright assignments.

At the risk of being wrong again, which never stops me from trying, I’ll predict that the Orioles go 13-for-13.

I’m about 2 ½ weeks past my open-heart surgery and progress is slow but steady.

I just typed that sentence without having to lie down.

The heavier lifting comes as we move into December, into a new year and to Sarasota for spring training. The 40-man roster has 39 players and the Orioles have multiple items remaining on their shopping list. They also need to hire a bench coach and major league coach.

Let’s look at four more topics and decisions hovering around the Orioles, with you, the reader, telling me how they’re going to turn out.

John Means is rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery and he’s a first-timer on the free-agent market. He has a second child on the way and the same desire to pitch.

We’re in the middle of awards week with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. The Orioles’ last transaction was signing right-hander Robinson Martínez to a minor league contract on Thursday. They remain engaged in talks to add a right-handed bat and more pitching.

It’s going to heat up.

Meanwhile, I’ve written about some anticipated storylines in spring training, like how Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo fit on the roster, how Adley Rutschman will hit, anything Félix Bautista, rehab progress made by Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez’s health after being left off the Wild Card roster, anything Jackson Holliday, what a full season of Zach Eflin could do, whether Daz Cameron can make the club as an extra outfielder, and whether Dean Kremer can take the next step.

Here are a few more.

More reaction to the left field wall.

A week of key dates brings us later today to players accepting or declining the $21.05 million qualifying offer. Decisions must be made by 4 p.m.

This one is easy to predict.

Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander are expected to decline it and dive into free agency. They have rich long-term deals waiting for them. They aren’t settling for anything less.

Burnes is the top starter on the market and the Orioles are keeping the door open for a return. Santander is coming off a 44-homer season and will attract plenty of suitors. His value has never been higher.

The Orioles will receive a draft pick if Burnes and Santander sign with other clubs. That’s why you make the qualifying offer, which only applied to players who haven’t received one in the past and spent the entire season with the team. No deadline additions.

The Orioles don’t have much of a presence in this week’s Baseball Writers’ Association of America Awards. Tonight is their one chance at a winner.

Colton Cowser is a finalist for American League Rookie of the Year with Yankees pitcher Luis Gil and catcher Austin Wells.

The BBWAA doesn’t provide odds, which would give away the result and kill the drama. However, Cowser feels like the favorite as an everyday player with the offensive and defensive resume. Gil is the stiffest competition.

Cowser, 24, already earned the Players Choice award last month as the league’s Outstanding Rookie after batting .242/.321.447 with 24 doubles, three triples, 24 home runs, 69 RBIs and 52 walks in 153 games. He became the third Oriole in four years to be recognized following Ryan Mountcastle in 2021 and Gunnar Henderson in 2023. Adley Rutschman was a finalist in 2022.

The 172 strikeouts present an area for improvement in camp and during the upcoming season. Colton can get started on it after his left hand heals from surgery to repair a fracture.

Without notes in front of him or knowledge of which questions he’d field Friday afternoon during his 27-minute video call with the local media, Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias performed a mental checklist of rehabbing players and their progress.

Colton Cowser is fine after his October surgery to repair a fractured left hand suffered in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Grayson Rodriguez has recovered from his lat strain and shouldn’t have any restrictions in camp. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells should return in the second half.

Jorge Mateo can get lost among these names but Elias isn’t forgetting about him.

Mateo’s surgery sounds complicated enough to require a cheat sheet when talking about it. He underwent a Tommy John reconstruction procedure on Aug. 28 with an internal brace and flexor repair to fix the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. Dr. Keith Meister, on speed dial, performed it at Trinity Park Surgery Center in Arlington, Texas.

The injury was weird in nature. Mateo suffered a transient dislocation in the elbow after colliding with shortstop Gunnar Henderson during a July 23 game against the Marlins in Miami. A ground ball hit up the middle led to Mateo’s arm getting pinned between Henderson’s leg and the ground.

The Orioles went a little too far in pushing back their left field wall, prompting some changes in the other direction for the 2025 season.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias announced today in a video call that the baseball operations department after careful deliberation has “decided to pursue modifications to the dimensions in left.”

Some areas will be pulled in as much as 20 feet, and others 11 or at a maximum of nine. A rendering shows the wall lowered from 13 to eight feet.

The initial renovations moved back the wall 30 feet and raised it about eight.

“We made the change between the 2021 and 2022 seasons as we were trying to pursue a more neutral but also more pitcher-friendly array at Camden Yards,” Elias said, “and we were doing so under the time constraints of a single offseason and seeking a way to make at that time our extremely homer-prone park more neutral and perhaps erring to the side of pitcher-friendliness. And given the uncertainties of the game, offensive environments, et cetera, it became clear to us and me and our staff, our coaches and players, the feedback that we received over three years of lived experience, that it was a directionally correct move, but we overcorrected.

A few questions stuck to the bottom of the mailbag again.

An attendant at Sinai Hospital told me that eight ounces or more of cherry juice lowers blood pressure. The bottle must have leaked.

It never should have been inside the mailbag. That’s my fault.

You ask and I answer. Here we go.

Any new minor league signings to report?
Yes. The club announced yesterday that right-hander Robinson Martínez signed a minor league deal. Martínez, 26, pitched in the Phillies system from 2015-19 and in the Marlins system in 2021-22. He has a 4.92 ERA and 1.502 WHIP in 133 games (seven starts) and averages 5.2 walks, 9.6 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He hasn’t pitched above Double-A. The Orioles assigned him to the Bowie Baysox.

Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias wants to tackle the major league roster again but he’s also diving for depth.

The club announced yesterday that it signed infielder Vimael Machin to a minor league contract. No word on whether the deal includes an invitation to spring training.

Machin is 31 years old and two removed from his last big league exposure. He appeared in 112 games with the Athletics from 2020-22 and batted .208/.290/.261 with 14 doubles and a home run in 361 plate appearances.

On the defensive side, Machin made 81 appearances at third base, 15 at shortstop, seven at second base and one at first. Most of his minor league experience also is at third.

Machin played in 52 games with Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the Phillies’ organization in 2023, but he also made stops in Mexico, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. He spent most of this year in Mexico and hit .401/.495/.579 with 31 doubles, one triple, seven home runs and 54 RBIs in 85 games.

Questions are flowing into the mailbag. It’s like a valve is open.

Major League Baseball hosts its quarterly owners meetings next week in New York. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America will begin announcing winners of its four major awards Monday with Rookie of the Year in both leagues.

Colton Cowser is a finalist and will try to give the Orioles back-to-back winners for the first time in club history and eight winners overall.

The offseason is pretty tame at the moment beyond the usual roster deadlines. The Nov. 4 waiver claims of catcher René Pinto and pitcher Thaddeus Ward didn’t move the needle. Lots of work is done behind closed doors with the Orioles putting together their major league and minor league coaching staffs and filling other positions.

Let’s fill this space with the mailbag, which is the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

My energy level isn’t allowing for a deep dive into anything beyond my couch, but Danny Coulombe’s removal from the bullpen adjusts the Opening Day projections.

Not too soon to post them and not too soon to pivot.

It isn’t common for a team to stand pat with its ‘pen, and I’d expect executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias to check the markets for at least one reliever that he can bring to camp and boost the competition and depth.

The Orioles claimed left-hander Tucker Davidson on waivers from the Royals in October 2023, three weeks after bringing back left-hander Luis González on another minor league deal. González was just added to the 40-man roster.

Jonathan Heasley was acquired in a December trade with the Royals and Wandisson Charles agreed to a minor league deal, but securing Craig Kimbrel at the Winter Meetings was the big haul. It just didn’t work out for more than half of the season.

So, what did I miss?

I’m using open-heart valve-replacement surgery as a convenient, albeit painful, excuse for being so far behind on transactions and other news. It’s also why I’m resting after every sentence that I’m typing.

A quick but heartfelt thank you to everyone who cared for me at Sinai Hospital, beginning with Dr. Peter Cho, who removed my faulty valve and gave me one from a cow. I just hope that one day I get to meet its family and show my appreciation.

My gratitude extends to Woodholme Cardiology’s Dr. Jonathan Rogers and Dr. Charles Cummings, who remained patient as the Orioles dictated when I could schedule pre-surgery appointments and the actual procedure. They were skilled and tremendous comforts. And everyone at Sinai who gathered after the surgery and yelled at me to “breathe!”

Can’t remove the tube unless you’re breathing on your own, and that’s solid advice in any situation.

Three months remain until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, followed by the position players. The dates are formalities because most of the Orioles get there early.

I’ve written about some anticipated storylines, like how Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo fit on the roster, how Adley Rutschman will hit, anything Félix Bautista, rehab progress made by Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez’s health after being left off the Wild Card roster, and anything Jackson Holliday.

I’ve come up with a few more this morning.

What a full season from Zach Eflin can do for the club.

We found out how valuable Eflin was after the July 26 trade with the Rays that cost the Orioles minor leaguers Jackson Baumeister, Matthew Etzel and Mac Horvath. Eflin went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP with 11 walks – five of them in his final appearance of the regular season - in 55 1/3 innings. Seven of his starts were quality outings and he fell an out short of an eighth against his former team.

Connor Norby hasn’t studied the Marlins’ 2025 schedule, though he’s confident that his mother could recite it because she’s already planning her trips. He expects to be in Baltimore next summer, since the Orioles played in Miami this year. The home fields alternate.

He’s right. The Orioles host the Marlins in a three-game series July 11-13 that leads directly into the All-Star break. Norby has a chance to make his return to Camden Yards after being traded with outfielder Kyle Stowers for left-hander Trevor Rogers at the deadline.

Norby, a second-round draft pick in 2021 out of East Carolina, didn’t see it coming. He had to process it. And he had to endure another stop in the minors, with the Marlins optioning him to Triple-A Jacksonville so he could learn to play third base.

After going 6-for-32 in nine games with the Orioles, Norby resumed his rookie season by hitting .313/.377/.625 with six doubles and three home runs in 12 August games with the Marlins. He set a club record with six extra-base hits in his first six games.

I had a nice phone conversation with Norby over the weekend before he headed off to attend a friend’s wedding. He was gone July 30 before media had a chance to get his reaction to the trade.

It’s another slow day for me. At least that’s what I’m told. Or “ordered” is more like it.

(This would be funny if I didn’t survive the surgery but the story ran anyway. Now that’s a slow day.)

Here are some topics and decisions hovering around the Orioles. You can do the heavy lifting today and tell me what’s going to happen.

Apologies in advance if any of them became outdated earlier this week because I still didn’t have access to my laptop. Or because I died.

Coby Mayo had a few stops in the majors this year and went 4-for-41 in 17 games. He’s waiting for his first extra-base hit.

The offseason gives media a chance to make early predictions on free-agent signings, trades and other activity while waiting for actual news.

Don’t pay any attention to early World Series odds. No team has a set roster in November.

Can we at least wait until spring training?

OK, if you’re going to press me, the Orioles make the playoffs in 2025. That’s all I’ve got.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden has Corbin Burnes and Max Fried signing with the Mets. I never considered Burnes as a realistic possibility for the Orioles, but I also stress how new ownership dumps us in uncharted hot stove waters.

Another mailbag left me with another batch of leftovers. Grab a plate.

You ask and I answer. Everybody knows the rules.

Everybody also knows that my mailbag signs long-term extensions and your mailbag gets cut by Rancho Cucamonga.

Why the mass exodus?
Too much Taco Bell. Oh, you mean changes on the coaching staff and in the front office. Some left on their own, others didn’t have their contracts renewed. There isn’t an all-encompassing answer. But the .500 second half and quick exit in the Wild Card series figured to bring about some changes.

Do you view any of this as an overreaction to the season we just had or were some people unhappy in their roles?
A better opportunity came along for Matt Borgschulte. I don’t profess to know all of the details in the other moves. Fredi González and José Hernández expected to be back. I haven’t heard why they’re going to be replaced. That’s for later. Change always happens at the major league and minor league levels.

The Orioles made one decision today regarding club options for 2025 and it was the easiest to forecast.

The team announced that it declined the $16.5 million option on Eloy Jiménez’s contract, which puts him on the free agent market. His deal with the White Sox included a $3 million buyout.

Jiménez wasn’t staying with the Orioles after batting .232/.270/.316 with five doubles and a home run in 33 games. And after going 1-for-24 with eight strikeouts in September.

He also couldn't play in the field while recovering from a left hamstring strain that slowed him on the basepaths.

The Orioles carried 12 position players on the Wild Card roster and Jiménez wasn’t among them. They optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk on Sept. 24 while activating first baseman Ryan Mountcastle from the injured list, but he was brought back to Camden Yards as an extra in case of an injury.

Let’s dive into the first post-World Series mailbag while the offseason heats up.

You ask again, I answer again, and we have the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

This is a politics-free mailbag. Let’s consider it practice for next week.

It’s also an editing-free mailbag. Let your clarity, length and style shine.

An important reminder here that my mailbag gets lots of candy on Halloween and your mailbag gets a toothbrush and dental floss.