The countdown to spring training is gaining momentum. The offseason is melting away as the temperature drops, forming a Frosty puddle.

I’m about to get busy, busy, busy.

Mocks and predictions are popular ways to keep fans engaged, with the disclaimer that everything can change with one or two transactions.

The Orioles and their division rivals aren’t done constructing their rosters. I don’t own a crystal ball, but I highly recommend Dan Aykroyd’s Crystal Skull vodka. It's first on my list, but it’s harder to find than a usable Erik Bedard quote.

But I digress …

The media crowd around Jackson Holliday’s locker will have more layers than an onion on his first day of availability in camp. Must be his appeal.

(You see what I did there.)

Holliday was a good story last spring. The first-overall draft pick with the youthful face and famous father. Everyone wanted to see him play, and he stuck around much longer than anticipated.

It turned out to be more than a courtesy look and a chance to soak in the environment. Holliday wasn’t reassigned to the minor league side until March 14, after batting .385 with a .991 OPS.

The Orioles announced 30 non-roster invites on Feb. 2 and expanded the list later that day after outrighting reliever Darwinzon Hernández. The camp roster held 71 players, with an overflow in the auxiliary clubhouse.

The Orioles haven’t announced their non-roster invites to major league spring training, but it must be on this month’s agenda. A list that can be updated later depending on future transactions.

They didn’t need to protect Jackson Holliday, Connor Norby and Coby Mayo in the Rule 5 draft, with the latter two eligible next winter. All three could be added to the 40-man roster this year to eliminate that task.

They were camp invites last year, with no chance of heading north for Opening Day. Holliday seems to have the best shot this spring despite his age and limited experience at Triple-A Norfolk. Norby and Mayo are waiting for their opportunities and hopeful that the Orioles can make room.

Norby is a second baseman with some corner outfield starts. Mayo is a corner infielder who appears blocked by Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and others at third base and Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn at first.

Mayo also will be working out in right field, a new position for him. Can’t hurt to try it and maybe provide another way to get him on the roster.

Questions and curiosities about the Orioles aren’t limited to a new stadium lease and whether it’s finally OK to report it as done rather than circling back again and risking motion sickness.

I’ve wondered whether Kyle Bradish could build on his breakout season, Jordan Westburg would play more regularly, Cole Irvin would keep bouncing between the rotation and bullpen, and John Means would give the club a full and productive season. I’ve asked for an update on Dillon Tate and whether Seth Johnson would debut next summer.

Here are three more:

How much does Craig Kimbrel have left in the closing tank?

This is fresh, big and quite obvious.

As we approach the Christmas holiday, I’ve decided to serve another batch of leftovers this morning.

Not from Thanksgiving. I’m brave but I also have my limits.

My mailbag is thinner but still could stand to lose a few pounds. Here are some extras from last week, with the usual reminders that I’d rather eat them than edit them.

Also, my mailbag is invited to office parties and yours is given the wrong date and address.

Do you think the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel makes it more likely that Wells starts the season in the rotation?
It might have improved his odds, but he could be destined for the bullpen if the Orioles acquire a starter, which they’re trying to do. New guy, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, Dean Kremer. That’s five. Maybe Wells would be pitted against Kremer in camp. And DL Hall isn’t ready to bow out of the competition. Should be fun.

Time to take a look at a few facts that came out of the 2023 baseball season and see how some of them may play out in 2024. This is where our opinions come in.

Fact: No. 1-ranked prospect Jackson Holliday has played just one full minor league season and just 145 career games on the farm. He rose four levels last year, but played only 18 regular season games and four more in the playoffs for Triple-A Norfolk. Now he could make the 2024 Opening Day roster for the Orioles.

Opinion: O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias got everyone’s attention at the Winter Meetings when asked if Holliday could make it to Baltimore for Opening Day.

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said during an interview session in Nashville. “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors. Probably, you have to go back into, like, the '80s or '90s to find something similar to that, in my opinion, for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A. Wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and did well.”

As I have written a few times this offseason, sometimes teams just want to “get on with it” with a top prospect. They know the talent is immense and they move the youngster to the majors to complete his development while at the same time helping the big club. Holliday, as talented as he is and as mature as he is for age 20, is about at that point.

They will be playing in a game that doesn’t count, and it won’t even be a nine-inning game. But in mid-March at spring training in one game, we will be able to see many, maybe even just about all, of the Orioles' top young prospects on the field at one time.

It is a cool concept called “Spring Breakout,” a four-day event from March 14-17 in which each big league club’s top prospects will play another team's top group as part of a spring training doubleheader. Major League Baseball announced the event on Wednesday afternoon.

The Orioles' prospects will play the Pittsburgh Pirates' prospects on March 14 at Lecom Park in Bradenton, Fla. The schedule lists the clubs playing the major league spring game at 3:05 p.m., with the second part of a doubleheader being the prospects match starting their seven-inning game at 7:05 p.m.

No broadcasts for spring have been announced yet, but MLB Network was promoting a broadcast of the O’s and Pirates on the airwaves on Wednesday when this event was announced.

One of the neat things every year in spring training is seeing the prospects play in major league spring games. Whether they are there for just a short time or for longer, it has to be thrilling for the young players and also cool for the fans to see this young talent taking the field wearing the orange and black and representing the Orioles.

Analysts have used words like "astounding" and "amazing" while noting that the Orioles have had three straight players move to the No. 1 spot on the national top-100 prospects lists. Adley Rutschman went to No. 1, and then so did Gunnar Henderson. And during the 2023 season, Jackson Holliday ended the year at No. 1.

Rutschman, Henderson and Holliday, all going to No. 1. The first two are already productive major leaguers. The third could join them on Opening Day 2024.

Talk about building an elite talent pipeline. You can’t get more elite then No. 1.

During the Winter Meetings, I interviewed Jonathan Mayo, MLBPipeline.com prospects analyst. He talked about this remarkable run of No. 1 prospects by the Orioles.

“It is really astounding,” said Mayo. “Adley and Jackson being No. 1, that is sort of how it’s supposed to be when you have the No. 1 pick. But they have not missed on the No. 1 pick. At least not yet. Jackson Holliday has not played an inning of big league ball, so we don’t put the cart ahead of the horse. I think we all expect him to be a good big leaguer. They didn’t miss on those, and people miss on No. 1 picks often. Even if they end up being OK big leaguers, they don’t wind up becoming that No. 1 prospect.

NASHVILLE – Did Craig Kimbrel save the Winter Meetings for the Orioles?

A closer’s work is never done.

News of Kimbrel’s agreement yesterday on a $12 million contract for next season that includes a $1 million buyout on a $13 million club option broke a little over five hours before the Orioles’ ditched their digs at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center.

Much better than dropping it on the media during the Southwest flight home, but still a bit late. The countdown had started. Fan agitation over the failure to make a move was growing in some circles.

If “X” is a circle.

NASHVILLE – Scott Boras drew the usual massive throng of media this morning to the ballroom area on the Delta side of the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center. Reporters and cameramen camped out, the agent’s representative attempting to clear a path to create room for Boras to reach his designated spot.

A Winter Meetings tradition like no other. The loudest lobby buzz of the week.

Boras usually has little or nothing to say about the Orioles, especially with Chris Davis retired, but representing Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday makes him a must-listen for the local beat crew.

Henderson was named the American League’s Rookie of the Year and finished eighth in Most Valuable Player voting. Holliday, the first-overall selection in the 2022 draft, is ranked as baseball’s No. 1 prospect.

Other teams are signing their young stars to huge contract extensions. Have the Orioles reached out to Boras about their dynamic duo?

NASHVILLE – The Orioles made news of sorts yesterday without making any signings or trades. The news was that there is “very definitely a strong possibility” that No. 1 ranked prospect Jackson Holliday will be on the Opening Day roster March 28. That is how O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias answered when asked about the possibility of the kid being there for the opener. 

Earlier in the winter, Elias was indicating the O’s were open to his chance to make it on Opening Day but also that they would make that decision during spring training. Yesterday’s pronouncement gives Holliday, who turned 20 Monday, a great chance to be there for the opener against the Los Angeles Angels at Camden Yards.  

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said during an interview session at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors. Probably you have to go back into like the 80s or 90s to find something similar to that in my opinion for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A. Wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and did well.”

Holliday rose four levels, from Low Single-A to Triple-A, batting .323/.442/.499/.941 while rising to become the No. 1 prospect in the sport and he also played in the All-Star Futures Game in July.

“He’s now going to be back in spring training. He just turned 20. To me that’s a big year of development – 19 to 20. You get taller, you get heavier, you get more mature. Just a lot of good things that can happen. We just want to see what he looks like,” said Elias of Holliday, who led all of the minors scoring 113 runs and he was fifth in on-base percentage.

NASHVILLE – When you have one of the deepest and maybe the deepest farm systems in baseball, making trades from that prospect depth is a good way to add to your major league roster. For the Orioles, it’s a big change from the rebuilding years when they were trading to acquire prospects in dealing players such as Trey Mancini, Dylan Bundy and, going even farther back, Erik Bedard.

Now the Orioles are rumored to be looking to acquire a pitcher such as right-hander Dylan Cease via a trade. Cease has two years of team control left, at a cost of perhaps around $25 million. That is a pretty low dollar amount for two seasons of a pitcher of that quality, one who finished second for the American League Cy Young Award in 2022, going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA. A pitcher projected to get $8.8 million this year via arbitration.

If, as reports indicate, his trade market is “robust,” it might take a team with numerous quality prospects to pull off that deal. A team like the Orioles could also offer one of several young veterans who already have a proven major league track record.

Jonathan Mayo, who covers prospects for MLB.com and MLBPipeline.com, shared a few thoughts this morning on the Orioles' prospect depth. Is now the time for Baltimore to pull the trigger on a deal to use prospects to get something to help the 2024 club?  

“That is what it is pointing to, not being privy to the conversations going on,” Mayo said. “They have infield and outfield depth and have choices, where they can make a trade and a team like the Chicago White Sox can get someone they can put right into their Opening Day lineup. Guys that are just about ready, and (the Orioles) bring in a starting pitcher like a Dylan Cease. And they could do it without completely stripping the system bare.

NASHVILLE – Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said he’s had a “productive day” of meetings at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center. Can’t get into particulars, but a lot of good conversations with so many attractive free agents remaining on the board and plenty of trade partners.

Jackson Holliday isn’t just untouchable in those discussions. He could be on the roster when the team breaks camp.

“It’s definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said. “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had an historic first full season in the minors. You probably have to go back into like the ‘80s or ‘90s to find something similar to that, in my opinion, for an American kid out of high school.

“Got to Triple-A, wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and he did well. He’s now going to be back in spring training. He just turned 20 (yesterday), so to me that’s a big year of development, 19 to 20. You get taller, you get heavier, you get more mature. There’s a lot of good things that happen. So we just want to see what he looks like.”

Holliday was invited to spring training last year and impressed with his skills and attitude before the Orioles assigned him to the minor league side and the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. He won’t be on the clock in 2024, waiting to be called into manager Brandon Hyde’s office with the inevitable news.

NASHVILLE – Major League Baseball’s annual charity auction at the Winter Meetings to support “Stand Up to Cancer” is honoring executives Billy Beane and Catalina Villegas, who are undergoing treatments following their diagnoses.

Beane, a former outfielder, is MLB's senior vice president of diversity, equity and inclusion. Villegas is director of diversity, equity and inclusion.

Beane needs a bone marrow transplant as he battles acute myeloid leukemia, as reported earlier in USA Today. Villegas underwent breast cancer surgery and six aggressive rounds of chemotherapy.

The auction is live at MLB.com/wintermeetingsauction until Thursday at 10 p.m. Items and experiences have been donated by all 30 clubs, more than a dozen minor league teams, the office of the commissioner, MLB Network and the Baseball Hall of Fame & Museum.

The Orioles are offering four complimentary tickets to a game in 2024, and an opportunity to watch batting practice and meet executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias, and an autographed baseball from manager Brandon Hyde.

With the release of a new top 10 O’s prospects list this week by Baseball America comes confirmation of what we already knew: the O’s system remains loaded. They currently hold the title of top farm system in all of baseball.

The new top-100 prospects lists are likely to come out sometime in January and February. But on the latest lists from Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com, the Orioles have six top-100 prospects.

Here is how Baseball America ranked them this week on its new team top 10.

1) Shortstop Jackson Holliday: Did we expect anyone else? The player drafted No. 1 overall by the Orioles on July 17, 2022 has lived up to the hype and then some. He played at four levels last summer – ending the year at Triple-A Norfolk – and hit .323 with a .941 OPS and led all minor league players in runs scored, with 113. He played above-average defense and has 60-grade speed. He was the O’s Minor League Player of the Year and Baseball America’s National Player of the Year after a season in which he played in the All-Star Futures Game. Speaking of the future, his day in Baltimore could be close. Holliday will celebrate his 20^th birthday tomorrow.

2) Catcher Samuel Basallo: He turned 19 in August. He is a super-fast riser that has become the shining star of the O’s international program. He rose three levels last year, producing 20 homers and a .953 OPS. He played four games at the end of 2023 at Double-A Bowie, where he will likely start the 2024 season. It could end for him at Triple-A. The tools and production are loud for this guy. While Holliday is the third straight O’s farm player to be No. 1 in prospect rankings, Basallo could be the fourth. Yes, impressive by the Orioles. 

One very important and also very interesting question facing the Orioles – and no doubt for fans a very exciting question – is when will the club bring baseball’s No. 1 ranked prospect, infielder Jackson Holliday, to the big leagues?

Will he have a real shot to make the Orioles out of spring training, or will he need more Triple-A time than the 18 regular-season games and four playoff games he played in for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides?

Holliday hit .267 with a .796 OPS for Norfolk to cap a remarkable year where he played at four levels and overall hit .323/.442/.499/.941 with 30 doubles, nine triples, 12 homers, 24 steals, 154 hits, 101 walks, 113 runs and 75 RBIs.

“Yeah, I’ve got no complaints," Holliday said via a Zoom call in late September on the day he was named the Orioles' Minor League Player of the Year, winning the Brooks Robinson Award. He had earlier been named Baseball America’s Player of the Year for the entire minor leagues.

"This year has gone about as well as I could possibly imagine. My goal was Double-A, and to make it to Triple-A is quite something. It’s been quite a year," said Holliday and that might be understating it.

Can a team that expects to be in the playoffs carry a struggling rookie on the roster? How about one in the everyday lineup?

This is sort of a natural follow up blog to yesterday when we pondered how the O’s will look to introduce some of their top prospects to regular player time. When is the right time for the Orioles to make that move?

Yes, it is easier for a losing team or a rebuilding team to carry a struggling rookie simply because they have less concern over daily wins and losses. But you still have to worry about the individual and when the struggles become too much or that player should be sent back to the minors. These are not easy calls for any club, no matter their place in the standings.

A young Orioles team with a manager with a strong player development background may be the near perfect spot for a young player like Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser or Jackson Holliday to break in. The clubhouse is filled with players who have been there and done that when it comes to rookies finding their way. Recent examples like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson who had initial struggles and more established players like Cedric Mullins, not that far removed from them. Mullins can tell any young player about the time he fell all the way to Double-A before making it back to become a 30-30 talent and win a Silver Slugger award.

The other thing to keep in mind is that yes, the Orioles will be pushing to make the playoffs again. But any young player on the roster, even one as touted as Holliday, need only be complementary to the roster on a 101-win team and not the key guy. No one needs to be the straw stirring the drink here. No one needs to carry this club.

One of the biggest questions facing the Orioles for next season is how and when to turn over significant playing time to some of their top prospects? When is the right time to not only call up a player but commit to that player as a regular?

The Orioles have more than three players that are on the verge of cracking the everyday lineup or pushing to do that, but the three that are right on the cusp include two we have already seen in the majors in outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad and one we have not. That’s the big one, MLB’s No. 1 prospect in shortstop Jackson Holliday.

We have here three players ranked by at least one major outlet as among the top 25 prospects in baseball. Holliday is No. 1 by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com while Cowser is No. 11 by Baseball America and No. 14 via MLB. Kjerstad is No. 24 via MLB and No. 43 by Baseball America.

Sometimes an injury will determine when this player gets in the lineup and then it’s up to the player to take the chance and run with it. Sometimes a prospect will make the roster but not have regular playing time. That is always a big decision to make. Is the prospect better suited to just play every day on the farm or learn on the job in the big leagues even if not playing a lot? How will the prospect handle not playing a lot?

Cowser got into 26 games with the 2023 Orioles and hit .115/.286/.148/.433. Known for a good batting eye and patient approach with nice gap-to-gap pop, he managed a 16.9 walk rate in that limited sample with a 28.6 K rate. There is some swing and miss in his game, but this is also a player that gets at least average grades on defense and is considered a plus runner.

When the Orioles went to a six-man rotation late in the season this year it proved to be pretty important. How much so? At his season-ending press conference yesterday manager Brandon Hyde didn't pull punches on it.

Said Hyde: “For me, when we decided to go to a six-man rotation, that possibly was a season-saver. Because I feel like all those guys, that was kind of crunch time a little bit. And, it allowed all those guys to get an extra day. And they showed what they could be like when they were rested, and I think it was the right thing to do for every one of them because they were flying over their innings (totals from the previous year) because they were pitching so well and we needed them. So, for me, that was a huge part of our season, when we made that decision at that point.

“I’m excited about our rotation going forward. I’m not sure what’s going to happen from a roster standpoint, but I know that we have some guys in there that had great experience this year and had really good seasons. And are still really young in their career. Just go back at what Tyler Wells did in the first half. And what he did the last week of the season. Unbelievable. Arguably, our best starting pitcher of the first half, and showed the stuff he had out of the bullpen a couple of years ago.

“Our starting pitching is up and coming. And I think they are only going to get better.”

The extra innings some pitchers threw this year and pitching into October should benefit this group next season, even if they gave up 13 runs in eight combined October innings in three playoff games.

It has been an interesting last 13 or 14 months for Orioles Triple-A pitcher Chayce McDermott. Last Aug. 1, he was acquired from Houston in a three-team trade that sent Trey Mancini to the Astros. Houston had drafted McDermott in 2021 in round four out of Ball State.

This season he advanced from Double-A to Triple-A in mid-July and ends his first full season in the organization named Saturday as the O’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, winning the Jim Palmer Award.

Ranked as the club’s No. 10 prospect by MLBPipeline.com and No. 14 via Baseball America, MLB Pipeline ranks him as the club’s top pitching prospect.

Late last season his life was uprooted by the trade, but this season ends with the Palmer award. Joining the Orioles has proven to be huge for McDermott, who turned 25 Aug. 22.

“I think people overlook sometimes that getting traded is very hard,” he said Saturday after the announcement of his award. “You get used to an organization and then you pick up and move. Meet new people, new coaches. But I feel like it was a super smooth transition, super easy. I love everyone in the Orioles organization, and they have been super helpful in my career. Now it just feels like I am part of the family.”