MLB Pipeline analyst talks O's prospect depth for possible trades (plus Hyde on Holliday)

cowser debut

NASHVILLE – When you have one of the deepest and maybe the deepest farm systems in baseball, making trades from that prospect depth is a good way to add to your major league roster. For the Orioles, it’s a big change from the rebuilding years when they were trading to acquire prospects in dealing players such as Trey Mancini, Dylan Bundy and, going even farther back, Erik Bedard.

Now the Orioles are rumored to be looking to acquire a pitcher such as right-hander Dylan Cease via a trade. Cease has two years of team control left, at a cost of perhaps around $25 million. That is a pretty low dollar amount for two seasons of a pitcher of that quality, one who finished second for the American League Cy Young Award in 2022, going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA. A pitcher projected to get $8.8 million this year via arbitration.

If, as reports indicate, his trade market is “robust,” it might take a team with numerous quality prospects to pull off that deal. A team like the Orioles could also offer one of several young veterans who already have a proven major league track record.

Jonathan Mayo, who covers prospects for MLB.com and MLBPipeline.com, shared a few thoughts this morning on the Orioles' prospect depth. Is now the time for Baltimore to pull the trigger on a deal to use prospects to get something to help the 2024 club?  

“That is what it is pointing to, not being privy to the conversations going on,” Mayo said. “They have infield and outfield depth and have choices, where they can make a trade and a team like the Chicago White Sox can get someone they can put right into their Opening Day lineup. Guys that are just about ready, and (the Orioles) bring in a starting pitcher like a Dylan Cease. And they could do it without completely stripping the system bare.

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Winter Meetings this, that and the other

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NASHVILLE – Major League Baseball’s annual charity auction at the Winter Meetings to support “Stand Up to Cancer” is honoring executives Billy Beane and Catalina Villegas, who are undergoing treatments following their diagnoses.

Beane, a former outfielder, is MLB's senior vice president of diversity, equity and inclusion. Villegas is director of diversity, equity and inclusion.

Beane needs a bone marrow transplant as he battles acute myeloid leukemia, as reported earlier in USA Today. Villegas underwent breast cancer surgery and six aggressive rounds of chemotherapy.

The auction is live at MLB.com/wintermeetingsauction until Thursday at 10 p.m. Items and experiences have been donated by all 30 clubs, more than a dozen minor league teams, the office of the commissioner, MLB Network and the Baseball Hall of Fame & Museum.

The Orioles are offering four complimentary tickets to a game in 2024, and an opportunity to watch batting practice and meet executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias, and an autographed baseball from manager Brandon Hyde.

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Still robust and impressive: The O's top 10 prospects list

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With the release of a new top 10 O’s prospects list this week by Baseball America comes confirmation of what we already knew: the O’s system remains loaded. They currently hold the title of top farm system in all of baseball.

The new top-100 prospects lists are likely to come out sometime in January and February. But on the latest lists from Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com, the Orioles have six top-100 prospects.

Here is how Baseball America ranked them this week on its new team top 10.

1) Shortstop Jackson Holliday: Did we expect anyone else? The player drafted No. 1 overall by the Orioles on July 17, 2022 has lived up to the hype and then some. He played at four levels last summer – ending the year at Triple-A Norfolk – and hit .323 with a .941 OPS and led all minor league players in runs scored, with 113. He played above-average defense and has 60-grade speed. He was the O’s Minor League Player of the Year and Baseball America’s National Player of the Year after a season in which he played in the All-Star Futures Game. Speaking of the future, his day in Baltimore could be close. Holliday will celebrate his 20th birthday tomorrow.

2) Catcher Samuel Basallo: He turned 19 in August. He is a super-fast riser that has become the shining star of the O’s international program. He rose three levels last year, producing 20 homers and a .953 OPS. He played four games at the end of 2023 at Double-A Bowie, where he will likely start the 2024 season. It could end for him at Triple-A. The tools and production are loud for this guy. While Holliday is the third straight O’s farm player to be No. 1 in prospect rankings, Basallo could be the fourth. Yes, impressive by the Orioles. 

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A big decision for the Orioles: When will Jackson Holliday make the bigs?

Jackson Holliday futures jersey

One very important and also very interesting question facing the Orioles – and no doubt for fans a very exciting question – is when will the club bring baseball’s No. 1 ranked prospect, infielder Jackson Holliday, to the big leagues?

Will he have a real shot to make the Orioles out of spring training, or will he need more Triple-A time than the 18 regular-season games and four playoff games he played in for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides?

Holliday hit .267 with a .796 OPS for Norfolk to cap a remarkable year where he played at four levels and overall hit .323/.442/.499/.941 with 30 doubles, nine triples, 12 homers, 24 steals, 154 hits, 101 walks, 113 runs and 75 RBIs.

“Yeah, I’ve got no complaints," Holliday said via a Zoom call in late September on the day he was named the Orioles' Minor League Player of the Year, winning the Brooks Robinson Award. He had earlier been named Baseball America’s Player of the Year for the entire minor leagues.

"This year has gone about as well as I could possibly imagine. My goal was Double-A, and to make it to Triple-A is quite something. It’s been quite a year," said Holliday and that might be understating it.

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Can a first-division team carry a struggling rookie on the roster?

Colton Cowser

Can a team that expects to be in the playoffs carry a struggling rookie on the roster? How about one in the everyday lineup?

This is sort of a natural follow up blog to yesterday when we pondered how the O’s will look to introduce some of their top prospects to regular player time. When is the right time for the Orioles to make that move?

Yes, it is easier for a losing team or a rebuilding team to carry a struggling rookie simply because they have less concern over daily wins and losses. But you still have to worry about the individual and when the struggles become too much or that player should be sent back to the minors. These are not easy calls for any club, no matter their place in the standings.

A young Orioles team with a manager with a strong player development background may be the near perfect spot for a young player like Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser or Jackson Holliday to break in. The clubhouse is filled with players who have been there and done that when it comes to rookies finding their way. Recent examples like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson who had initial struggles and more established players like Cedric Mullins, not that far removed from them. Mullins can tell any young player about the time he fell all the way to Double-A before making it back to become a 30-30 talent and win a Silver Slugger award.

The other thing to keep in mind is that yes, the Orioles will be pushing to make the playoffs again. But any young player on the roster, even one as touted as Holliday, need only be complementary to the roster on a 101-win team and not the key guy. No one needs to be the straw stirring the drink here. No one needs to carry this club.

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With some top prospects pushing for time, how and when do they impact roster?

Heston Kjerstad white jersey

One of the biggest questions facing the Orioles for next season is how and when to turn over significant playing time to some of their top prospects? When is the right time to not only call up a player but commit to that player as a regular?

The Orioles have more than three players that are on the verge of cracking the everyday lineup or pushing to do that, but the three that are right on the cusp include two we have already seen in the majors in outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad and one we have not. That’s the big one, MLB’s No. 1 prospect in shortstop Jackson Holliday.

We have here three players ranked by at least one major outlet as among the top 25 prospects in baseball. Holliday is No. 1 by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.com while Cowser is No. 11 by Baseball America and No. 14 via MLB. Kjerstad is No. 24 via MLB and No. 43 by Baseball America.

Sometimes an injury will determine when this player gets in the lineup and then it’s up to the player to take the chance and run with it. Sometimes a prospect will make the roster but not have regular playing time. That is always a big decision to make. Is the prospect better suited to just play every day on the farm or learn on the job in the big leagues even if not playing a lot? How will the prospect handle not playing a lot?

Cowser got into 26 games with the 2023 Orioles and hit .115/.286/.148/.433. Known for a good batting eye and patient approach with nice gap-to-gap pop, he managed a 16.9 walk rate in that limited sample with a 28.6 K rate. There is some swing and miss in his game, but this is also a player that gets at least average grades on defense and is considered a plus runner.

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Some rotation talk and other notes on season-ending press conferences

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When the Orioles went to a six-man rotation late in the season this year it proved to be pretty important. How much so? At his season-ending press conference yesterday manager Brandon Hyde didn't pull punches on it.

Said Hyde: “For me, when we decided to go to a six-man rotation, that possibly was a season-saver. Because I feel like all those guys, that was kind of crunch time a little bit. And, it allowed all those guys to get an extra day. And they showed what they could be like when they were rested, and I think it was the right thing to do for every one of them because they were flying over their innings (totals from the previous year) because they were pitching so well and we needed them. So, for me, that was a huge part of our season, when we made that decision at that point.

“I’m excited about our rotation going forward. I’m not sure what’s going to happen from a roster standpoint, but I know that we have some guys in there that had great experience this year and had really good seasons. And are still really young in their career. Just go back at what Tyler Wells did in the first half. And what he did the last week of the season. Unbelievable. Arguably, our best starting pitcher of the first half, and showed the stuff he had out of the bullpen a couple of years ago.

“Our starting pitching is up and coming. And I think they are only going to get better.”

The extra innings some pitchers threw this year and pitching into October should benefit this group next season, even if they gave up 13 runs in eight combined October innings in three playoff games.

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After winning the Jim Palmer award, Chayce McDermott eyes big league job in '24

Chayce-Mcdermott

It has been an interesting last 13 or 14 months for Orioles Triple-A pitcher Chayce McDermott. Last Aug. 1, he was acquired from Houston in a three-team trade that sent Trey Mancini to the Astros. Houston had drafted McDermott in 2021 in round four out of Ball State.

This season he advanced from Double-A to Triple-A in mid-July and ends his first full season in the organization named Saturday as the O’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, winning the Jim Palmer Award.

Ranked as the club’s No. 10 prospect by MLBPipeline.com and No. 14 via Baseball America, MLB Pipeline ranks him as the club’s top pitching prospect.

Late last season his life was uprooted by the trade, but this season ends with the Palmer award. Joining the Orioles has proven to be huge for McDermott, who turned 25 Aug. 22.

“I think people overlook sometimes that getting traded is very hard,” he said Saturday after the announcement of his award. “You get used to an organization and then you pick up and move. Meet new people, new coaches. But I feel like it was a super smooth transition, super easy. I love everyone in the Orioles organization, and they have been super helpful in my career. Now it just feels like I am part of the family.”

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Colton Cowser's 455-foot grand slam leads Norfolk to the AAA championship

Cowser orange

The Orioles' Triple-A affiliate, the Norfolk Tides, won a franchise record 90 games this year, setting several team records along the way. Then they lost the first game of the best-of-three International League championship series last Tuesday, before winning two in a row to take their first IL crown since 1985.

But the Tides had one more big win in them last night as they beat Oklahoma City 7-6 to win the Triple-A championship game in Las Vegas, pitting the IL champion Tides against the Pacific Coast League champion Dodgers.

Norfolk trailed 2-1 in the top of the seventh but had the bases loaded with two outs. Down 0-2 in the count against lefty Alec Gamboa, Colton Cowser mashed a grand slam to right center to turn the one-run deficit into a 5-2 lead with one swing. He hit the ball with a 107.6 mph exit velocity and it went 455 feet and deep into the Las Vegas night.

A mammoth blast just when the Tides needed it by the player ranked No. 11 on the top 100 by Baseball America and No. 14 by MLBPipeline.com.

On a cell phone call from the Las Vegas ballpark postgame, I asked Cowser what it felt like to mash a baseball in such a big spot.

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Jackson Holliday is named Orioles' Minor League Player of the Year (updated, plus the other winners)

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After a season when he rose to No. 1 in prospects rankings and has already been named Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year, today shortstop Jackson Holliday was named winner of the Orioles' Brooks Robinson Award as the organization's Minor League Player of the Year for 2023.

The Orioles named right-hander Chayce McDermott the recipient of the Jim Palmer Award as the club's Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Norfolk manager Buck Britton won the Cal Ripken Sr. Player Development Award. Dave Jennings won the Jim Russo Scout of the Year award.

Holliday has played at four levels in the 2023 season, beginning the year at Single-A Delmarva and later moving to High-A Aberdeen, Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. He ended the regular season with Norfolk and will play with the International League champion Tides tonight against Oklahoma City, winners of the Pacific Coast League title, in the Triple-A Championship game in Las Vegas.

Over 125 games this year between the Shorebirds, IronBirds, Baysox and Tides, Holliday, 19, has hit .323/.442/.499/.941 with 30 doubles, nine triples, 12 homers, 24 steals, 154 hits, 101 walks, 113 runs and 75 RBIs.

“Yeah, I’ve got no complaints," Holliday said via a Zoom call today with reporters about his remarkable season. "This year has gone about as well as I could possibly imagine. My goal was Double-A, and to make it to Triple-A is quite something. It’s been quite a year."

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Another title too: Triple-A Norfolk wins the International League championship

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An AL East championship was celebrated in downtown Baltimore tonight. At about the same time as the O's were winning the AL East, their Triple-A Norfolk affiliate was winning the International League title for the first time in 38 years.

The Tides tonight beat the Durham Bulls 7-0 to win the 2023 IL title. The teams were tied 1-1 in the best-of-three series with Norfolk, on their home field at Harbor Park, taking tonight's decisive Game 3.

The Tides have been the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate since 2007, and this is Norfolk's first title representing the Orioles. 

Norfolk had won previous International League championships in 1972, 1975, 1982, 1983 and 1985 - all as a New York Mets affiliate.

Now the Tides have one more. 

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O's notes on the final homestand, 800 runs, AL East play and more

Jackson Holliday

And then there were six. Six games remaining in the 2023 regular season. If the Orioles can just go 3-3 in those games, they can clinch the American League East title without any help from a Rays loss.

Three wins would also produce the sixth 100-win season in Orioles history. The 1969 team went 109-53 for the best O’s record ever in the regular season. The 1970 team was 108-54 with the 1979 club going 102-57. In 1971, the Orioles were 101-57. They were 100-62 in 1980.

The 1980 club was the last O’s team to win 100 games. And while the first four to do it all made the World Series, the 1980 Orioles, while they had the second-best record in the majors, did not even make the playoffs.

With their next win, No. 98, the 2023 Orioles would join seven other O’s clubs to win 98 or more games. The 1997 team was the last to win that many, going 98-64.

The O’s magic number is three as the final homestand begins tonight with two games versus the Nationals and four versus the Red Sox.

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Jackson Holliday named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year

Jackson Holliday

At around this time last year, the Orioles Gunnar Henderson was named Baseball America's 2022 Minor League Player of the Year. Now the Orioles have two players in a row so honored.

As his remarkable first full season on the farm is winding down, today shortstop Jackson Holliday of the Orioles was named the 2023 winner by Baseball America.

This is the third time since the award started in 1981, that one organization had a winner two years in a row, but the first time it was two different players. The New York Mets' Gregg Jefferies won in 1986-87 and Andruw Jones of Atlanta in 1995-96. Now Henderson and Holliday go back-to-back for the Orioles.

Holliday's season has seen him progress four levels, starting the year with Low Single-A Delmarva, moving to High-A Aberdeen and then on to Double-A Bowie and now he is with Triple-A Norfolk.

His regular season ended yesterday with Norfolk, but the Tides will host Durham beginning Tuesday night in the International League's best-of-three championship series. The IL winner will meet the Pacific Coast League champs this Saturday in the Triple-A championship game.

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O's pregame notes on facing lefty starters, Webb back in Anaheim and more

Jacob Webb throwing gray

Anaheim, Calif. - The Orioles will face three left-handed starters this series against the Angels, a rare occurrence. For tonight, it puts Ryan O'Hearn on the bench as Adley Rutschman rests.

O'Hearn is hitting .300 with an .830 OPS in 83 games. He has just 22 plate appearances this year against lefty pitching and is 5-for-20, but two of the five hits are homers.

"Well, it gives guys opportunities," manager Brandon Hyde said of his lineup against left-hander Kenny Rosenberg tonight. "But a lot of times in those games, too, those lefties come off the bench in big spots. So even though we are facing a lefty a lot of times O (O’Hearn) will hit, (Adam) Frazier will hit. I have Adley off the bench tonight, too.

"Best-case scenario is we can chase a starter early and get into their bullpen, which kind of sets us up for the series. We are going to face a lot of righties after this. At least two of three in Boston and at least two with St. Louis and probably four against Tampa."

Speaking of the Rays, they lost today 7-3 at home to the Red Sox. So the O's Amarican League East lead is three games at the moment and could be 3.5 games at the end of tonight.

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Rookie Jordan Westburg with a big pinch hit and Jorge Lopez on rejoining the O's (plus Holliday promoted)

Jordan Westburg

PHOENIX – He has now played 50 games in the big leagues, and it feels like that went by pretty fast for O’s rookie Jordan Westburg. 

As a pinch-hitter on Sunday at Arizona, he produced an RBI double in the sixth inning which turned a 5-4 Baltimore lead into a 6-4 edge that would become 8-4 before the inning was out.

It was a nice contribution from Westburg, who is batting .281 with an OPS of .829 with runners in scoring position.

It was another game where the Orioles showed they are resilient. After Arizona tied the game in the fifth and the Orioles didn’t get what they felt was a sure running out of the baseline call by the D-backs Geraldo Perdomo, they just came back to bat and put up four runs to take charge of the game for a second time.

“I think we’ve been doing it (bouncing back well) all season,” said Westburg. “You brush off the losses and you come back with a brand-new mindset. It’s a new day and everyone in the clubhouse trusts the offense. I think the hitters know that we are good enough to put up 10 runs on a given night.”

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Source: Jackson Holliday is being promoted to Triple-A Norfolk

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PHOENIX - Baseball's No. 1 prospect is moving on up. Again. Shortstop Jackson Holliday will play for his fourth team of the minor league season when he joins Triple-A Norfolk from Double-A Bowie this week, according to a source. 

Holliday, 19, will play his first game for the Tides on Tuesday at Harbor Park when Norfolk hosts Jacksonville at 6:35 p.m.

The Tides will play their next 12 games in Norfolk before capping off the regular season with a six-game series at Buffalo. After that, Norfolk will host a best-of-three International League championship series at Harbor Park that begins Sept. 26. If the Tides win that series they will play the Pacific Coast League winner in the Triple-A National Championship Game Sept. 30 in Las Vegas.

Holliday batted .396 with an OPS of 1.182 in 14 games at the start of the season with Single-A Delmarva. His first game with High-A Aberdeen was April 25, and in 57 games he batted .314 with a .940 OPS with the IronBirds. On July 14 he moved to Double-A Bowie and hit .338/.421/.507/.928 in 36 games with nine doubles, three triples, three homers and 15 RBIs.

So over 107 games for the year at three levels, Holliday has hit .333/.451/.517/.968 with 26 doubles, nine triples, 10 homers, 95 runs, 23 steals and 66 RBIs. He has walked 85 times with 101 strikeouts.

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Because You Asked - Brave New World

John Means smiling

On Sept. 24, 2014, the Orioles defeated the Yankees 9-5 in the Bronx to move 32 games above .500. They lost their next three, won 1-0 in Toronto and finished the regular season 96-66.

The 2023 edition is 77-47 heading into tonight’s series opener against the Blue Jays at Camden Yards, with a chance to soar 31 games beyond the .500 mark for the first time in nine years.

Can’t clip those wings, though strains happen. And be careful with that back.

I remind myself of this daily as I hoist my mailbag. Lift with the legs, the only exercise they get.

I’m lightening the load by answering a few more questions this morning, the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original, while my body adjusts to East Coast time.

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Jackson Holliday improves work with scouting reports to keep producing big numbers

Jackson Holliday futures

BOWIE, Md. – Jackson Holliday, shortstop at Double-A Bowie and the No. 1 ranked prospect in baseball, is working hard in the hours leading up to game time so that when first pitch arrives every night, he is ready to unleash his considerable talent and skills on opponent pitchers.

In a recent interview at Prince George’s Stadium, Holliday said he continues to learn better how to use the extensive scouting reports he gets on the pitchers he will see. He is learning to better use information not just on what a pitcher may throw, but how he prefers to use his pitches and what locations he most uses those pitches to get outs.

Getting better at this process not only helps Holliday now, but in the future when he gets to the big league level where the scouting and pre-game planning is most extensive. 

“I really enjoy looking at the pitcher’s plots and scouting reports,” he said. “Feel like I’m doing a good job of knowing what I am getting myself into each at-bat. I try to use that as much as possible to create a game plan. For the most part you have never faced these guys, so I want to know what I am getting into. Feel like that is going well so far.

“Every single guy has a different percentage of what he throws on different counts. So, to be able to eliminate pitches to help myself have a better chance of getting a hit can be big. But for the most part you also need to be looking for fastballs.

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Because You Asked - Folie á Deux

Jackson Holliday futures game

The All-Star break didn’t shatter the Orioles’ momentum toward their first playoff berth in seven years.

They are 16-7 in the second half. Their lead over the Rays grew to three games. Their 70 wins matched the Braves’ total yesterday.

Any drama left in the season appears to involve possible promotions, fitting pitchers on the roster who are returning from the injured list, and whether the Orioles win the division and receive a first-round bye in the playoffs.

That last one is a biggie.

If the season ended today, the Orioles would kick back and wait for the winner of the Rays-Astros wild card series. The Rangers would play the Twins or Blue Jays.

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In Bowie, Wells back on the mound and Mullins begins his rehab games (Jackson Holliday was good too)

wells sad white

BOWIE, Md. – Before Saturday night at Prince George's Stadium, the last time right-hander Tyler Wells was seen on a mound he lasted just 2 2/3 innings. It was a week ago last night at Baltimore’s Camden Yards where he allowed three runs and three hits on 63 pitches against the New York Yankees.

It was his third straight sub-par game – a stretch where he allowed 11 runs and nine walks over nine innings – and he was optioned to Double-A Bowie after that game.

He reported to the Baysox team here on Tuesday for a reset and to get his arm and body some rest. Scheduled to make a short start last night for Bowie, he took the mound in his No. 34 home white Baysox jersey to face the team with the second-best record in the Eastern League, Boston affiliate Portland.

Pitching at the Double-A level for the first time since the 2018 season and making just his second outing for an O’s affiliate (one at High-A Aberdeen last year), Wells allowed two hits and one run on a solo homer over 3 1/3 innings Saturday night as Bowie beat Portland 9-4.

Wells walked one and fanned two, throwing 53 pitches, 35 for strikes. Many fastballs registered in the 93 mph range on the PG Stadium gun, so pretty normal for Wells, who has gone 7-6 with a 3.80 ERA for the Orioles.

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