Tony Mansolino holds the same curiosity. Being closer to the subject doesn’t offer an ounce of clarity.

The Orioles’ third base coach doubles as its infield instructor. He works with a talented young group that’s certain to expand with more prospect arrivals in 2024.

He can do the math.

An overflow is upon us.

Gunnar Henderson was voted Rookie of the Year in the American League. Jordan Westburg, another high-round draft pick, moved between second and third base. Defensive wiz Joey Ortiz made his major league debut and routinely is chosen as the best-fielding shortstop in the organization. Top overall prospect Jackson Holliday could break camp with the team or join it shortly after the season begins. Coby Mayo is threatening to bash down the door.

It will be, barring a real surprise, the most interesting aspect to track in spring training. And that is, can Jackson Holliday, who turned 20 on Dec. 4, make the O’s Opening Day roster?

Not only can he, but I would put the odds now in his favor.

Before an interview session during the Winter Meetings, I would have probably called it 50-50 at the very best, but then there was the quote heard ‘round Nashville and the one that got all Baltimore reporters’ attention at that event.

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said during an interview session in Nashville when asked directly if Holliday could make it on OD? “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors. Probably, you have to go back into, like, the '80s or '90s to find something similar to that, in my opinion, for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A. Wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and did well.”

And everyone who said he didn’t tear up Triple-A, it was just 22 games counting the playoffs and his .796 OPS was solid. Make no mistake, he more than held his own and looked like he belonged.

Today let’s throw out a few more facts about the Orioles and drop in an opinion or two to discuss them. Here we go.

Fact: Juan Soto made the majors after just 122 games on the farm and Jackson Holliday has played 145 minor league games through the 2023 season.

Fact and opinions: It’s true, and Baseball America’s JJ Cooper made that point this week when discussing if Holliday could start the 2024 season on the O’s roster. “Juan Soto was way less experienced when he stepped into the Nationals lineup than Jackson Holliday is right now," Cooper said.

First point here is that just because the great Soto did it doesn’t mean anyone can. But Holliday is not just anyone. This week he became the third Oriole in three years to be ranked No. 1 in the preseason Baseball America top 100 list after Adley Rutschman in 2022 and Gunnar Henderson last year.

But Cooper, as he usually does, makes a very good point.

The latest spring training update, with the report date for pitchers and catchers and the first workouts, can transport a person to Sarasota without needing an airline reservation.

Shovels filled with snow and ice bring that same person back to reality. But at least there are no lines at security.

I have a few more weeks until I need to start packing and issuing the same reminder that it’s spring training and not spring break. Don’t get them confused.

The alarm is set early just about every day for six weeks. It’s work, I tell you.

Oh sure, it’s sunny and warm and baseball. The restaurant choices are more expansive than Shakespeare’s vocabulary. But thou shalt never truly know the depths of my despair over learning that Yume Sushi on Main Street has closed permanently.

When I interviewed Baseball America’s JJ Cooper this week to talk about the Orioles making history in the BA top 100, becoming the first team to have three No. 1 players in three straight years, he had an interesting comment.

“It’s hard to imagine we are going to see this again anytime soon,” he said.

To that point, many in Birdland may have thought “unless the O’s Samuel Basallo (No. 10 right now) makes it four in a row for the Orioles this time next year.”

And that was my follow up to Cooper in that interview. Well, what about a Baltimore four-peat this time with Basallo in 2025?

“It is absolutely a possibility,” said Cooper noting that several players ranked ahead of Basallo currently in their new top 10 are likely to graduate from list eligibility during the new season and he could move up several spots based on that alone. 

It was not unexpected as O’s prospect Jackson Holliday ended last season as the sport’s No. 1 ranked player. But when Baseball America released a new top 100 list on Wednesday, the Orioles officially became the first team in the 35-year history of their list to have the No. 1 player for three straight seasons.

Three years, three different No. 1 players.

Catcher Adley Rutschman was No. 1 in the initial list release of 2022, infielder Gunnar Henderson was No. 1 in 2023 and now Holliday in 2024.

In 2022, Rutschman went on to post an OPS of .806 for the Orioles and he finished second for AL Rookie of the Year and was 12^th in the AL MVP voting. Last year, Henderson posted an OPS .814, won the AL Rookie of the Year Award and finished eighth in the MVP voting.

With the poll release last year, the Orioles then become the first team to ever have two players from the same draft class be No. 1 in consecutive years, with Rutschman and Henderson drafted in 2019. The only team previously with two straight years with two different players getting to No. 1 before 2023 was St. Louis, with J.D. Drew in 1999 and Rick Ankiel topping the ratings in 2000.

We already knew that the Orioles produce young talent about as well as any team in baseball and that the club's farm system is No. 1 in the sport. But it's nice when the industry provides further confirmation of all this.

And this week, the Orioles got further confirmation in a four-part series of articles on MLB.com and MLBPipeline.com. The outlet surveyed from office execs, members of scouting and analytics and player development.

And just about everywhere you looked, the Orioles were doing pretty well.

In the first part of this series the execs were asked who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? Last year they tabbed Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Arizona's Corbin Carroll to win, and both did in 2023.

This time the execs provided 36 percent of their AL votes for outfielder Evan Carter of Texas and 30 percent to O's prospect Jackson Holliday. The Orioles Heston Kjerstad was listed in the also getting votes category.

A month has passed since the last big mailbag reveal, when blue smoke told us that the Orioles would make a trade with the Royals.

Welcome to the Orioles world, Jonathan Heasley.

The deadline to sign arbitration-eligible players or exchange salary figures was last night, followed by the start of the international signing period on Monday. The three-day Birdland Caravan begins Jan. 25. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training by the middle of February.

Heasley could make another new friend before reporting to camp. The Orioles still haven’t acquired a starting pitcher.

I won’t wait until it happens to respond to your questions. Let’s do it now, with a second batch held for later.

The countdown to spring training is gaining momentum. The offseason is melting away as the temperature drops, forming a Frosty puddle.

I’m about to get busy, busy, busy.

Mocks and predictions are popular ways to keep fans engaged, with the disclaimer that everything can change with one or two transactions.

The Orioles and their division rivals aren’t done constructing their rosters. I don’t own a crystal ball, but I highly recommend Dan Aykroyd’s Crystal Skull vodka. It's first on my list, but it’s harder to find than a usable Erik Bedard quote.

But I digress …

The media crowd around Jackson Holliday’s locker will have more layers than an onion on his first day of availability in camp. Must be his appeal.

(You see what I did there.)

Holliday was a good story last spring. The first-overall draft pick with the youthful face and famous father. Everyone wanted to see him play, and he stuck around much longer than anticipated.

It turned out to be more than a courtesy look and a chance to soak in the environment. Holliday wasn’t reassigned to the minor league side until March 14, after batting .385 with a .991 OPS.

The Orioles announced 30 non-roster invites on Feb. 2 and expanded the list later that day after outrighting reliever Darwinzon Hernández. The camp roster held 71 players, with an overflow in the auxiliary clubhouse.

The Orioles haven’t announced their non-roster invites to major league spring training, but it must be on this month’s agenda. A list that can be updated later depending on future transactions.

They didn’t need to protect Jackson Holliday, Connor Norby and Coby Mayo in the Rule 5 draft, with the latter two eligible next winter. All three could be added to the 40-man roster this year to eliminate that task.

They were camp invites last year, with no chance of heading north for Opening Day. Holliday seems to have the best shot this spring despite his age and limited experience at Triple-A Norfolk. Norby and Mayo are waiting for their opportunities and hopeful that the Orioles can make room.

Norby is a second baseman with some corner outfield starts. Mayo is a corner infielder who appears blocked by Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and others at third base and Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn at first.

Mayo also will be working out in right field, a new position for him. Can’t hurt to try it and maybe provide another way to get him on the roster.

Questions and curiosities about the Orioles aren’t limited to a new stadium lease and whether it’s finally OK to report it as done rather than circling back again and risking motion sickness.

I’ve wondered whether Kyle Bradish could build on his breakout season, Jordan Westburg would play more regularly, Cole Irvin would keep bouncing between the rotation and bullpen, and John Means would give the club a full and productive season. I’ve asked for an update on Dillon Tate and whether Seth Johnson would debut next summer.

Here are three more:

How much does Craig Kimbrel have left in the closing tank?

This is fresh, big and quite obvious.

As we approach the Christmas holiday, I’ve decided to serve another batch of leftovers this morning.

Not from Thanksgiving. I’m brave but I also have my limits.

My mailbag is thinner but still could stand to lose a few pounds. Here are some extras from last week, with the usual reminders that I’d rather eat them than edit them.

Also, my mailbag is invited to office parties and yours is given the wrong date and address.

Do you think the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel makes it more likely that Wells starts the season in the rotation?
It might have improved his odds, but he could be destined for the bullpen if the Orioles acquire a starter, which they’re trying to do. New guy, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, Dean Kremer. That’s five. Maybe Wells would be pitted against Kremer in camp. And DL Hall isn’t ready to bow out of the competition. Should be fun.

Time to take a look at a few facts that came out of the 2023 baseball season and see how some of them may play out in 2024. This is where our opinions come in.

Fact: No. 1-ranked prospect Jackson Holliday has played just one full minor league season and just 145 career games on the farm. He rose four levels last year, but played only 18 regular season games and four more in the playoffs for Triple-A Norfolk. Now he could make the 2024 Opening Day roster for the Orioles.

Opinion: O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias got everyone’s attention at the Winter Meetings when asked if Holliday could make it to Baltimore for Opening Day.

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said during an interview session in Nashville. “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors. Probably, you have to go back into, like, the '80s or '90s to find something similar to that, in my opinion, for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A. Wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and did well.”

As I have written a few times this offseason, sometimes teams just want to “get on with it” with a top prospect. They know the talent is immense and they move the youngster to the majors to complete his development while at the same time helping the big club. Holliday, as talented as he is and as mature as he is for age 20, is about at that point.

They will be playing in a game that doesn’t count, and it won’t even be a nine-inning game. But in mid-March at spring training in one game, we will be able to see many, maybe even just about all, of the Orioles' top young prospects on the field at one time.

It is a cool concept called “Spring Breakout,” a four-day event from March 14-17 in which each big league club’s top prospects will play another team's top group as part of a spring training doubleheader. Major League Baseball announced the event on Wednesday afternoon.

The Orioles' prospects will play the Pittsburgh Pirates' prospects on March 14 at Lecom Park in Bradenton, Fla. The schedule lists the clubs playing the major league spring game at 3:05 p.m., with the second part of a doubleheader being the prospects match starting their seven-inning game at 7:05 p.m.

No broadcasts for spring have been announced yet, but MLB Network was promoting a broadcast of the O’s and Pirates on the airwaves on Wednesday when this event was announced.

One of the neat things every year in spring training is seeing the prospects play in major league spring games. Whether they are there for just a short time or for longer, it has to be thrilling for the young players and also cool for the fans to see this young talent taking the field wearing the orange and black and representing the Orioles.

Analysts have used words like "astounding" and "amazing" while noting that the Orioles have had three straight players move to the No. 1 spot on the national top-100 prospects lists. Adley Rutschman went to No. 1, and then so did Gunnar Henderson. And during the 2023 season, Jackson Holliday ended the year at No. 1.

Rutschman, Henderson and Holliday, all going to No. 1. The first two are already productive major leaguers. The third could join them on Opening Day 2024.

Talk about building an elite talent pipeline. You can’t get more elite then No. 1.

During the Winter Meetings, I interviewed Jonathan Mayo, MLBPipeline.com prospects analyst. He talked about this remarkable run of No. 1 prospects by the Orioles.

“It is really astounding,” said Mayo. “Adley and Jackson being No. 1, that is sort of how it’s supposed to be when you have the No. 1 pick. But they have not missed on the No. 1 pick. At least not yet. Jackson Holliday has not played an inning of big league ball, so we don’t put the cart ahead of the horse. I think we all expect him to be a good big leaguer. They didn’t miss on those, and people miss on No. 1 picks often. Even if they end up being OK big leaguers, they don’t wind up becoming that No. 1 prospect.

NASHVILLE – Did Craig Kimbrel save the Winter Meetings for the Orioles?

A closer’s work is never done.

News of Kimbrel’s agreement yesterday on a $12 million contract for next season that includes a $1 million buyout on a $13 million club option broke a little over five hours before the Orioles’ ditched their digs at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center.

Much better than dropping it on the media during the Southwest flight home, but still a bit late. The countdown had started. Fan agitation over the failure to make a move was growing in some circles.

If “X” is a circle.

NASHVILLE – Scott Boras drew the usual massive throng of media this morning to the ballroom area on the Delta side of the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center. Reporters and cameramen camped out, the agent’s representative attempting to clear a path to create room for Boras to reach his designated spot.

A Winter Meetings tradition like no other. The loudest lobby buzz of the week.

Boras usually has little or nothing to say about the Orioles, especially with Chris Davis retired, but representing Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday makes him a must-listen for the local beat crew.

Henderson was named the American League’s Rookie of the Year and finished eighth in Most Valuable Player voting. Holliday, the first-overall selection in the 2022 draft, is ranked as baseball’s No. 1 prospect.

Other teams are signing their young stars to huge contract extensions. Have the Orioles reached out to Boras about their dynamic duo?

NASHVILLE – The Orioles made news of sorts yesterday without making any signings or trades. The news was that there is “very definitely a strong possibility” that No. 1 ranked prospect Jackson Holliday will be on the Opening Day roster March 28. That is how O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias answered when asked about the possibility of the kid being there for the opener. 

Earlier in the winter, Elias was indicating the O’s were open to his chance to make it on Opening Day but also that they would make that decision during spring training. Yesterday’s pronouncement gives Holliday, who turned 20 Monday, a great chance to be there for the opener against the Los Angeles Angels at Camden Yards.  

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said during an interview session at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors. Probably you have to go back into like the 80s or 90s to find something similar to that in my opinion for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A. Wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and did well.”

Holliday rose four levels, from Low Single-A to Triple-A, batting .323/.442/.499/.941 while rising to become the No. 1 prospect in the sport and he also played in the All-Star Futures Game in July.

“He’s now going to be back in spring training. He just turned 20. To me that’s a big year of development – 19 to 20. You get taller, you get heavier, you get more mature. Just a lot of good things that can happen. We just want to see what he looks like,” said Elias of Holliday, who led all of the minors scoring 113 runs and he was fifth in on-base percentage.

NASHVILLE – Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said he’s had a “productive day” of meetings at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center. Can’t get into particulars, but a lot of good conversations with so many attractive free agents remaining on the board and plenty of trade partners.

Jackson Holliday isn’t just untouchable in those discussions. He could be on the roster when the team breaks camp.

“It’s definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said. “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had an historic first full season in the minors. You probably have to go back into like the ‘80s or ‘90s to find something similar to that, in my opinion, for an American kid out of high school.

“Got to Triple-A, wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and he did well. He’s now going to be back in spring training. He just turned 20 (yesterday), so to me that’s a big year of development, 19 to 20. You get taller, you get heavier, you get more mature. There’s a lot of good things that happen. So we just want to see what he looks like.”

Holliday was invited to spring training last year and impressed with his skills and attitude before the Orioles assigned him to the minor league side and the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. He won’t be on the clock in 2024, waiting to be called into manager Brandon Hyde’s office with the inevitable news.