Chasing a playoff spot means dealing with much higher expectations for the Orioles

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When asked yesterday about his Orioles having higher expectations for this season, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said his own words are one reason for that.

The Orioles take on the season ahead is not one to temper, but rather take on the expectations of a fan base expecting their team to make a run at the playoffs. After all, winning and playing in October is the obvious goal. And this team is ready to take on the challenge of both higher expectations and the fact that no one considers them a pushover anymore.

“Part of that is based on stuff I’ve been saying,” Elias said. “Because I’m excited about the future of the team and the fact that I believe that our rebuild is behind us and we’ve got an incredible chance now to be a very, very competitive team for years. I think we are all excited about that.

“So, the front office and the manager, when we talk to media, we feed those expectations. But we also live in the reality of our business. We approach things very carefully. We have a lot of smart and experienced people in our front office working on our plan. And that includes growing the team over the next few years, managing our payroll, trying to get into contracts that make sense for the long haul.

“So, we have to navigate all those factors too. And a team like the Orioles in particular has to be careful about. A lot goes into it. The bottom line is we want to win, and everything we’ve done since, going back to 2018, has been about getting us to that point. And we’re going to continue applying our know-how to take the next step.”

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Revisiting roll call of Orioles' non-roster invites to spring training

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The Orioles sent out their list of non-roster invites to spring training yesterday with the understanding that other names could appear later. Thirty wasn’t a set number. There’s always room for Jell-O and more lockers at the Ed Smith Stadium complex.

Within hours, left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. He, too, will be in Sarasota, giving the Orioles 38 pitchers in camp, including 12 of the non-roster variety.

The possibility still exists that the Orioles make a waiver claim, sign a free agent or consummate another trade. They aren’t shutting down.

“We’re still working on stuff,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said yesterday during a Q&A with fans at Wilde Lake High School.

Could be pitching, an infielder or an outfielder. And it could be a major league contract.

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Notes on another prospects list, O'Day hangs it up, and O's equipment and jerseys head south

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Now another outlet has been heard from. Keith Law released his top 100 prospects list on Monday via The Athletic and six Orioles populate his list. Where once that would have been a haul for the Orioles, six is actually the fewest number they have on any major list out thus far.

Gunnar Henderson, the No. 1 ranked prospect per Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and Baseball Prospectus, is No. 2 via The Athletic. Arizona outfield prospect Corbin Carroll is ranked No. 1. Henderson was No. 73 on The Athletic top 100 before the 2022 season.

Click here to check out the list (subscription may be required).

Here is the rundown for the Orioles, who have had 10 players get mentioned on at least one of the four lists. I will list going left to right how players have been ranked by Baseball America/Baseball Prospectus/MLBPipeline.com/The Athletic.

* Gunnar Henderson ranked 1/1/1/2

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The next No. 1 prospect?: Shortstop Jackson Holliday is ready for first full pro year

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It doesn’t take long when interviewing young O’s shortstop prospect Jackson Holliday to realize this young man is mature beyond his years. He turned 19 on Dec. 4. He may look younger than 19 but he handles himself as an older, more experienced player might.

And to say the least the player the Orioles selected No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft is trending up. And trending up big.

The son of seven-time big league All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson became the third No. 1 overall O’s MLB Draft pick joining Ben McDonald in 1989 and Adley Rutschman in 2019 last July.

Then he went out and in yes, a small sample of 20 pro games, lived up to the hype.

He hit .297/.489/.422/.911 with five doubles, a homer and nine RBIs. And a stunning walk rate which was 30.3 in the rookie-level Florida Complex League and 26.3 with low-A Delmarva. For the 20 games, he walked 25 times with just 12 strikeouts. He played his first FCL game on Aug. 10 and first for the Shorebirds on Aug. 25.

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O's add lefty starter, plus another top 100 prospects haul on Thursday

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The Orioles have the best farm system right now in Major League Baseball. This according to several outlets ranking them that way. And if one big standard in determining that is most prospects on a top 100 list, the Orioles last night matched their Baseball America performance by getting eight ranked on the latest MLBPipeline.com list.

Gunnar Henderson, still prospect-eligible and eligible for the American League Rookie of the Year award this season, was ranked No. 1 by both outlets, and by Baseball Prospectus as well recently.

MLBPipeline.com places three O’s in the top 12, four in the top 40 and eight among the top 99.

Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez is No. 7, Jackson Holliday No. 12 and Colton Cowser No. 40. Jordan Westburg comes in at No. 74, Heston Kjerstad at No. 80, DL Hall at No. 97 and Joey Ortiz at No. 99.

The list doesn’t even include Kyle Stowers, Coby Mayo or Connor Norby, who might well have merited consideration. The Orioles ended the 2022 season with six on the MLBPipeline.com top 100, and Henderson was No. 2 to end the season.

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Eight is enough: O's lead the way on the Baseball America top 100

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Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has said the current O’s top 10 prospects list is about as deep as he’s ever seen. And this is a man that worked for talent-rich organizations in St. Louis and Houston. 

That is quite a statement and it was pretty much proven sound when eight of those 10 were ranked among the Baseball America top 100 prospects list released Wednesday. The magazine has been producing top 100 lists early every year since 1990, and until yesterday the Orioles had never had more than five players ranked in the initial list of the year.

It was great news for an organization that stated a clear intention of building an elite talent pipeline and one that is going to have to thrive using a lot of its homegrown talent. Right now the Orioles have the deepest prospect pool in baseball, and that was not news before yesterday. Numerous outlets have ranked their farm No. 1, even before yesterday.

But a haul of eight is indeed a haul. Cleveland had the second-most with seven, while the Dodgers, Mets and Rays had six each. The Orioles never had more than five on this initial list until now. 

The O’s began the 2022 season with five and ended it with six on the Baseball America ranking of their players this way: Gunnar Henderson (No. 1), Grayson Rodriguez (No. 4), Jackson Holliday (No. 38), DL Hall (No. 55), Colton Cowser (No. 88) and Jordan Westburg (No. 89).

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Orioles top all of MLB with eight ranked in the new Baseball America top 100

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It was a record-setting day for the Orioles with the release of the new Baseball America national top 100 prospects list today. Not only does Gunnar Henderson continue as the publication’s No. 1-ranked prospect, but the Orioles topped all of Major League Baseball with eight players ranked in the top 100, one more than Cleveland's seven and two more than the Dodgers, Mets and Rays, who had six each. 

This is the second year in a row in which Baseball America has ranked an Oriole as the top prospect in the sport. Adley Rutschman was No. 1 in the poll released last year. The publication has been producing top 100 lists since 1990, and the only other time the same organization had two different players at No. 1 in consecutive years was when the St. Louis Cardinals' J.D. Drew and Rick Ankiel topped the ratings in 1999 and 2000, respectively.

Also, no team had two players from the same draft ranked No. 1 in back-to-back years until today. The O’s selected Rutschman No. 1 overall in 2019 and Henderson was their second pick in that draft, at No. 42.

So Henderson, who was the 2022 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year also, is still No. 1. Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez is now No. 6 and the second-highest rated pitcher behind the Phillies' Andrew Painter at No. 5. Baseball America now ranks Jackson Holliday, the overall No. 1 pick by the Orioles in the 2022 draft, at No. 15. The Orioles also have Colton Cowser at No. 41, pitcher DL Hall No. 75, Jordan Westburg No. 76, Connor Norby No. 93 and Joey Ortiz at No. 95. Norby and Ortiz crack Baseball America's top 100 rankings for the first time this year.

With eight players ranked, the Orioles blew away their previous best in this initial pool release by Baseball America. We say initial as the last several years the publication has tweaked its poll throughout the season. In 2022, the Orioles ended the season with six in the top 100. But in the initial poll release of each year, the Orioles' best previous showings were five players ranked in 2008, 2021 and 2022.

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More props for O's farm and young talent

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At a time when the Orioles farm system gets major props from outlets throughout the sport, more encouraging news came this week. Baltimore already is ranked by several outlets as having the No. 1 farm system in baseball and this follows a 2022 season when both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson were ranked as the No. 1 prospect in baseball and Grayson Rodriguez was ranked as the No. 1 pitcher.

In this article this week, which summarized a podcast, MLBPipeline.com’s Jim Callis predicted that O’s infield prospect Jackson Holliday would be ranked as their No. 1 prospect in the top 100 by the end of the 2023 season. That would give the O’s three No. 1 players over a two-year period.

The podcast/article was rather promising about the Orioles as both Callis and fellow analyst Jonathan Mayo predicted that Henderson would be voted the 2023 American League Rookie of the Year.

Saying Henderson is “everything he was cracked up to be,” Callis adds he would vote Henderson the No. 1 prospect right now and currently he ranks No. 2 on the MLBPipeline.com board behind Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez.

In that same article, Callis also projected Holliday to be the MLBPipeline.com Hitter of the Year for 2023 as Henderson was for the outlet last season.

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No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list now, does Gunnar Henderson stay there?

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The Orioles' No. 1-ranked farm system currently features six players ranked in the Baseball America top 100 prospects list. That is a strong number. And if the O’s still have those six – and they likely should – when the publication releases a new top 100 list in January heading into 2023, that would be an Orioles first.

Since 1990, when Baseball America began releasing a top 100 list each January, the O’s have had as many as five players ranked, but never six.

Currently, they have the No. 1-rated player in Gunnar Henderson, in addition to Grayson Rodriguez (No. 4), Jackson Holliday (No. 38), DL Hall (No. 55), Colton Cowser (No. 88) and Jordan Westburg (No. 89).

Among the 33 lists Baseball America has released, only three times have the O’s had five rated, and it has happened each of the last two years and also in 2008.

In 2008, it was Matt Wieters (12), Chris Tillman (67), Radhames Liz (69), Troy Patton (78) and Nolan Reimold (91).

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A look at the Baseball America O's top 10 prospects list

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Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has said the Orioles' current top 10 prospects list is about as good as any he’s ever seen. That is high praise since he was involved with Houston’s rise to the top of big league baseball and they had some pretty strong young talent there too.

Today I am taking a look at and providing a brief comment on each player on Baseball America's list of the Orioles' top 10 prospects.

These are all names that should be well-known to most Orioles fans by now. Three have already seen the majors.

The Orioles pulled off a rare feat last season when they had two different players ranked as the No. 1 prospect in baseball by Baseball America: catcher Adley Rutschman and later infielder Gunnar Henderson.

No. 1 – IF Gunnar Henderson: There is plenty to like here, and Henderson will likely begin next year as Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect, as he is today. I mean, what is going to change between now and then? Henderson’s stay at the top, though, will end when he gets just 15 more big league at-bats and thus will no longer be “prospect-eligible,” as they say. However - and this will, no doubt, confuse some - he will still be eligible to win the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award.

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A look at the remaining pitching market, plus other notes

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In case you missed it, Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees. It got pretty extensive coverage. And yes, most of the non-Yankees fans in the game are ready to move on to something else now.

As it relates to the Orioles, they added right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson in recent days, but their search for a pitcher they can slot toward the top of their rotation is ongoing. Their choices are lessening.

The biggest pitching fish, or one of the three when free agency began, lefty Carlos Rodón is still out there. It would be a surprise if he ends up with the Orioles, but what a surprise it would be. Other pitchers that might have been in play for the Orioles have come off the board.

Right-hander Taijuan Walker signed with the Phillies for four years at $72 million. Right-hander Jameson Taillon joined the Cubs for four years at $68 million. José Quintana is joining the Mets and Andrew Heaney is headed to Texas.

The team that signs Rodón will lose a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer. Same applies to Chris Bassitt and Nathan Eovaldi. Kodai Senga, with no draft pick attached, could be signing soon, per reports, while lefty Sean Manaea and righty Noah Syndergaard are still out there.

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The O's offense evolving to one producing better OBPs

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Today a bit of a follow up to yesterday’s article about how the Orioles’ 2022 draft class fared so well in stats like walk rate and on-base percentage. This is important because for years the Orioles at the big-league level have not excelled in these stats.

At the MLB level, the Orioles last year posted a walk-rate of 7.9 percent per plate appearance, which was just under the MLB average of 8.2. The Orioles rated seventh in the American League and 16th in MLB in team walk rate for last season. In terms of OBP, the Orioles number of .305 was below the major league average of .312. The O’s rated 11th in the AL and 22nd in MLB in OBP last year. So, there is room for improvement.

With the ’22 draft class producing a collective .400 OBP for nine position players, which was second among all 2022 MLB Draft classes and a walk rate of 17.3, ranking first in the majors, the future on offense for Birdland, could be bright.

At least the Orioles could be evolving into producing a future lineup that features a group of tough outs that can work counts and will take a walk. Keep escalating opponent pitch counts and turning over the batting order. It should lead to more runs being scored.

Seeing so many young players get off to good starts in the plate-discipline stats, led by 18-year-old Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 overall draft pick last summer, was encouraging. The kid recorded a .489 OBP with a 27.8 walk rate in his debut pro season.

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In OBP and walk rate, the O's 2022 draft class got off to strong start

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In the 20-round MLB Draft last summer, the Orioles selected 10 position players and 10 pitchers. They signed nine of the position players. And in what was clearly a small sample which should be noted, that group of nine showed some outstanding plate discipline which could bode well for their future MLB chances.

As a group of nine players, the Orioles draft class produced a collective .400 OBP to rank second only to Seattle's draft class. The Mariners also had nine players that produced a collective .405 OBP.

But the Orioles did rank No. 1 in MLB with a draft class walk rate of 17.3 with San Diego (also nine players) second at 16.2.

Among O’s minor league players with 50 or more plate appearances last year, no player had a better walk-to-strikeout rate as a hitter than O’s No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday. He also led the organization with a 27.8 walk rate. He is just 18 years old.

Over 20 games between the Florida Complex League and low-A Delmarva, Holliday walked 25 times with just 12 strikeouts. That is a robust 2.08 walk-to-strikeout ratio, the best on the O's farm. Maxwell Costes, a non-drafted free agent from the University of Maryland was next at 1.50 with Adley Rutschman third at 1.38.

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Jim Callis: “I will be absolutely surprised if Jackson Holliday is not a superstar"

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For young Jackson Holliday, a lot was expected and a lot was delivered. The player the Orioles took No. 1 overall in the 2022 MLB Draft had a pretty solid 20-game pro debut.

It started with him tearing it up in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League for eight games and followed with 12 games at Single-A Delmarva where he certainly held his own.

Between the two levels at just age 18, Holliday showed a great batting eye and he walked 25 times with just 12 strikeouts. He ended the year ranked as the Orioles' No. 3 prospect behind Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez, and in national top 100s, he is rated No. 13 by MLBPipeline.com and No. 38 by Baseball America.

In his first season after being a high school drafted player in 2019, Henderson played in 29 games in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and batted .259/.331/.370 with a .701 OPS, 11 walks and 28 strikeouts. He had a 9.1 walk rate and 23.1 strikeout rate.

Holliday in eight FCL games batted .409/.576/.591 with a 1.167 OPS, 10 walks and two strikeouts. In the FCL, he had a 30.3 walk rate and 6.1 strikeout rate. Then in 12 games with the Shorebirds, he hit .238/.439/.333 with a .772 OPS, 15 walks to 10 strikeouts, producing a 26.3 walk rate and 17.5 strikeout rate.

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Because You Asked - State of the Union

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The first post-World Series mailbag has been emptied. Much like my hopes for a Game 7.

There’s nothing better in sports. And it delays the actual offseason for one more day.

I’ve grown to love the period of calm. A few small-scale transactions and some announcements on awards, but that’s about it.

(I picked the Astros in six games, but I digress …)

Now we’re ripe for rumors. I’ve already seen one prediction that the Orioles will sign Carlos Correa.

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Getting crowded on the farm at higher levels in the infield

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Having too many good players is not really a problem for any major league club. As we look down the road a year or two at the Orioles infield, it is starting to get crowded between players we’ve already seen in Baltimore and players on the way.

Of the current top 18 players on the O’s top 30 prospects list via MLBPipeline.com, nine are infielders, and seven of the nine have played at least as high as Double-A already. The depth is strong.

Gunnar Henderson, at least for now, is still prospect eligible and is the club’s No. 1 prospect with Jackson Holliday at No. 3, Jordan Westburg No. 5, Coby Mayo No. 7, Connor Norby No. 11, Max Wagner No. 15, Darell Hernaiz No. 16, Joey Ortiz No 17 and César Prieto No. 18.

Only four players can start on the infield each day, they tell me.

How will the Orioles handle this? Will there be trades? Will any of these players have to move positions?

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Hyde on Wells, Garcia, lineup, and roster expansion

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Tyler Wells threw his second bullpen session today and keeps making progress in his eventual return from a left oblique injury.

Wells is nearing a live batting practice session to get him reacclimated to facing hitters.

“It’s going very well,” Hyde said. “Threw his second bullpen, feels great after. All positive news from there.”

The Orioles haven’t determined Well’s role after he makes it back onto the active roster. Building him back up as a starter will take longer, which could influence them to make him a reliever.

“We’re still going to work some things out,” Hyde said.

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This, that and the other

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The Orioles begin a crucial non-division series tonight with the White Sox in town for three games.

Crucial no longer seems like a necessary designation. It's redundant. They're all big.

Every tie-breaking scenario comes into play with a packed wild card race, and the Orioles won three of four in Chicago back in June. Head-to-head results are important.

They missed out on a sweep after Dylan Cease, who starts tonight, held them to one run and struck out 13 batters in seven innings. They scored two unearned runs in the ninth off Kendall Graveman after consecutive errors by first baseman José Abreu in a 4-3 loss.

So long ago that Jonathan Arauz homered and had a run-scoring single.

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Tonight's game postponed and rescheduled for Sept. 5 doubleheader (updated)

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Tonight’s game between the Orioles and Blue Jays has been postponed due to rain and will be made up as part of a traditional doubleheader on Monday, Sept. 5.

The first game starts at 1:05 p.m. The second game is slated to begin about 30 minutes after the conclusion of the opener.

Fans holding tickets for the originally scheduled 1:05 p.m. game on Sept. 5 should use them for both games of the doubleheader.

Tickets for tonight’s game aren’t valid for the doubleheader. Fans may exchange the value of their tickets toward any remaining regular season home game this season, including the doubleheader, based on availability.

The first 15,000 fans ages 15 and over attending the doubleheader will receive a Ryan Mountcastle t-shirt.

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Minor league notes on Ortiz, Cowser, Hall, Holliday and more

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It has finally happened. The Double-A Bowie Baysox are rolling. It happened later than we thought but the Baysox are making up for lost time now.

After going 27-42 in the first-half Eastern League race, Bowie has surged into first place in its division in the second half, going 20-8 heading into Thursday’s game. The Baysox have a few scorching hot hitters and a bullpen that has posted a 2.48 ERA in the second half after posting a 4.78 ERA earlier.

Among the hottest hitters is shortstop Joey Ortiz, the club’s fourth-round pick in 2019 from New Mexico State. The Orioles' first three selections in that draft were Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Stowers, and they took Ortiz as their fifth pick.

He got off to a very slow start this season after undergoing season-ending left shoulder surgery last June. He ended this June batting .206 with a .596 OPS. Then he got on fire for the Baysox in July and produced a batting line of .404/.438/.674 with an OPS of 1.112.

“He had an elite shoulder injury that is difficult to come back from, and I think he has finally found his strength and his groove,” said Matt Blood, the Orioles' director of player development. “And he’s been making little adjustments all along the way. This is the player we saw last year before he got hurt. Probably a combination of getting fully healthy and strong as well as making adjustments to the league and the pitching he’s seen this year. Joey and that Bowie team are playing fantastic.”

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