CINCINNATI – Despite their limited action in free agency over the winter, the Nationals’ payroll has gone up a bit this year, a product almost entirely of returning players whose salaries increased via arbitration.

The Nats’ Opening Day payroll (counting 26 active players, plus five more who began the season on the injured list) is $107,566,629, according to Spotrac, which ranks 21st among all major league clubs. One year ago, that figure was about $94.5 million, which ranked 22nd.

Those totals count all money owed to players during the upcoming year, not any money that will be paid at a later date via deferrals.

The Nationals did very little in free agency during the offseason, signing only three players to major league contracts: Joey Gallo ($5 million guaranteed), Dylan Floro ($2.25 million) and Nick Senzel ($2 million). They did sign four more veteran free agents to minor league deals during spring training who wound up making the roster: Eddie Rosario ($2 million guaranteed), Jesse Winker ($1.5 million), Matt Barnes ($1.5 million) and Derek Law ($1.5 million).

All told, the Nats spent only $15.75 million on free agents, down from $18.25 million the previous offseason.

After a sustained run as one of baseball’s highest-spending clubs, the Nationals have morphed into one of the sport’s lower-spending clubs over the last 12 months. Given the state of the franchise’s rebuild, that’s not unexpected. Teams focused on identifying young pieces for the future don’t boast high payrolls.

But the question remains on the minds of so many right now: When will the Nats decide it’s time to spend big again, and what will that look like?

Reading tea leaves from club officials, it doesn’t sound like a splurge is coming this winter. They’re still focused on identifying those long-term parts to the puzzle. Once they have a better sense what they already have, they may be more inclined to spend money to acquire what they don’t have.

But even if they don’t go big yet, there’s reason to believe payroll will increase in 2024. Not by a lot, but some.

First, some background: From 2013-21, the Nationals ranked in the top 10 in the majors in end-of-season payroll every year, with a club record $205 million payroll (fourth-highest in baseball) during the 2019 World Series run.

There’s still time for things to change – for the team to sign another player or two, for others to make the club off minor-league deals, for someone to get hurt – but with eight days to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, we have a pretty good idea what the Nationals’ payroll is going to look like this season.

What it’s going to look like: A lot less than we’ve been accustomed to seeing from this franchise over the last decade.

Monday’s announcement that Victor Robles had avoided arbitration and agreed to a $2.325 million salary was the final significant piece to the puzzle. At this point, everybody who figures to make the Nats’ Opening Day roster either has a set salary or will be making close to the league minimum of $720,000.

And when you add up the salaries of the projected 26-man roster, plus a couple guys who will probably begin the season on the injured list, you get a grand total of $99,291,667. That’s a dramatic drop-off in salary commitments in the span of only two years.

The 2021 Nationals boasted an Opening Day payroll of $183,122,247, which ranked sixth out of 30 Major League Baseball clubs, according to Cot’s Contracts. That marked the ninth consecutive season they ranked among the top 11 teams in the sport in Opening Day payroll, the highest number coming in 2019 when they ranked fourth with a payroll of $197,203,691.

For nearly a decade, the Nationals had one of the most successful and competitive rosters in baseball. They also had one of the most expensive rosters in the sport.

Each year from 2013-2021, the Nats finished with a payroll that ranked in the top 10 in the majors. Twice, they exceeded Major League Baseball’s luxury tax threshold, all in an attempt to finally win big in October.

That’s not the case anymore, and it probably won’t be the case again for a while.

After tearing down much of their roster during the 2021 season, the Nationals entered this season with a $135.4 million payroll that ranked 17th in the majors. Final figures haven’t been tabulated yet, but that ranking certainly went down by season’s end after Juan Soto and Josh Bell were traded to the Padres.

All of which leaves the franchise with as little commitment to player salaries heading into an offseason as has been the case in a long time.