The state of the rotation entering Hot Stove season

MacKenzie Gore

If the Nationals are looking for ways to improve from 2025 to 2026, they can look at almost any position on the field and see plenty of room for growth. But if Paul Toboni and his new front office are allowed to point to only one aspect of the roster that could benefit the most from an upgrade, they surely would point to a rotation that regressed from the previous year.

After a moderately encouraging 2024 season that saw the emergence of several young arms and a respectable 4.40 ERA that ranked 23rd in the majors, Nats starters went backwards this season, finishing with a 5.18 ERA that ranked 29th in the sport, ahead of only the lowly Rockies.

What happened? The regression can be found in MacKenzie Gore’s rough second half following his first All-Star selection. It can be found in Trevor Williams’ inability to build off an encouraging 2024 before suffering another significant arm injury. And it really can be found in the way Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker – two bright spots from the previous year – devolved into two of the least effective starters in baseball.

Not that there weren’t positive developments mixed in there. Cade Cavalli finally made it all the way back from his injury woes and flashed top-of-the-rotation potential during his 10 late-season starts. Brad Lord did what Irvin and Parker did in the past and turned in a surprisingly effective rookie campaign (though he bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen). And Andrew Alvarez, another unexpected contributor, more than held his own in five September starts.

The new group that has since taken over the franchise sees things it likes in this group.

How can Helsley return to All-Star form in 2026?

helsley mets

Not all seasons are created equally.

Rookie years are for making mistakes and learning from them. Final seasons are for curtain calls and flowers. Contract years are for playing your best baseball in hopes of a big payday.

2025 was Ryan Helsley’s contract year, and it didn’t go exactly as he’d hoped.

Entering the season, the flamethrowing right-hander looked like one of the best relievers in the game. His previous three seasons in St. Louis included two All-Star appearances, thanks to a 1.83 ERA, more than a dozen strikeouts per nine innings, a WHIP under 1.000 and 82 saves.

In fact, in 2024, Helsley led all of baseball in saves with 49, one of just two pitchers to even reach 40.

Taking another look at Helsley and the Orioles' bullpen

helsley mets

The Orioles aren’t tip-toeing into the upcoming Winter Meetings.

Mike Elias got his power-hitting right-handed bat when he traded for outfielder Taylor Ward. He got his closer yesterday by reaching agreement with Ryan Helsley on a two-year, $28 million contract, which a source confirmed last night.

Executives won’t convene in Orlando until Dec. 7. Elias might check another box on his list before his flight lands.

Two starting pitchers, at least, are priorities for a team whose rotation posted a 4.65 ERA this year that ranked 24th in the majors, traded Grayson Rodriguez and apparently won’t bring back Zach Eflin or Tomoyuki Sugano. Elias indicated that he could pursue another impact bat, and he’d like to find a center fielder to provide options beyond Colton Cowser and Leody Taveras. The Orioles might not be able to carry three catchers, but he could use more depth at the position, just in case. A true utility infielder also might be desired.

Sleeves aren’t rolled down. Ward and Helsley just scratched the surface.

Orioles reportedly in agreement with Helsley on two-year deal

Ryan Helsley

The Orioles remained hopeful that they could get back Félix Bautista sometime after the break, but they had to find a closer to assist in their push to go from last place to first in 2026.

They didn’t wait for the Winter Meetings.

Multiple reports have the Orioles agreeing to terms with closer Ryan Helsley on a two-year, $28 million deal pending the results of a physical. The contract includes an opt-out.

Bautista had surgery in August to repair his labrum and rotator cuff. He didn’t pitch after July 20, and he missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from ligament-reconstructive surgery in his right elbow.

Helsley, 31, was drawing interest from the Tigers as a potential starter, but all 297 of his appearances in seven major league seasons came in relief. He led the majors with 49 saves in 53 chances with the Cardinals in 2024, made his second All-Star team and finished ninth in National League Cy Young voting. He also won the Trevor Hoffman award as the league’s top reliever.

Answering your Nats questions

Kyle Schwarber

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions yesterday for our Nats Q&A with a twist. Instead of answering live yesterday morning, I waited to compile all of the questions and answer them in whole this morning.

Here’s my best attempt at responding to almost all of your submissions. Apologies to those I couldn’t answer …

Good morning, Mark. How long does Crews have to prove he’s a real baseball player? The team needs him to be more than replacement level moving forward. – Katey2

For the record, Dylan Crews was more than replacement level this season. Not by a lot, but he was: 0.3 WAR in 85 games, which would work out to nearly 0.6 had he been healthy the entire year. That’s not me trying to suggest he was good, because he wasn’t. It was a disappointing first full MLB season for the former No. 2 overall pick. Some of that (the oblique injury) was out of his control. Some of it (the actual performance when healthy) was in his control. I think the important thing to keep in mind right now is that we’re still talking about a 23-year-old who has taken only 454 major league plate appearances. And, maybe more importantly, only took 652 plate appearances in the minors. That’s not much at all. Point is, he deserves more leash. Yes, partly because of his reputation as the No. 2 overall pick. But even more because of his extremely limited experience and haphazard rookie season that included not only a major injury but the firing of his manager and general manager in early July. You have to give him the entire 2026 season before making any hard judgments.

Hi, Mark. I’ll go for the brass ring: What minimal changes would it take to make the Nats a .500 team this year? I think they need to show progress this year in order to build fan interest in the team (as momentum toward even better success in the future). For example, I thought they had a potentially league-average batting squad last year, but they under-performed (House, Crews, Lowe, others). I still think defense and pitching are the keys to 2026 success. Where could we see the greatest return on investment? – cgire

One man's quest to get Sammy Stewart in their school's Hall of Fame

Sammy Stewart

Sammy Stewart’s life story is filled with chapters documenting his athletic successes, including a World Series championship with the Orioles in 1983, and tragedies that left him incarcerated, homeless and broken.

A childhood friend wants to pen the final one.

David Cody grew up with Stewart in the small town of Swannanoa in western North Carolina. They played baseball together. Everyone in the community had a bat and glove. None were better than Stewart, a major league pitcher for 10 seasons, the first eight with the Orioles, who signed him as an amateur free agent out of tiny Montreat College.

Stewart and Cody attended Charles D. Owen High, a 2A school where former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson and NBA center Brad Daugherty also roamed the halls. Johnson won a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay. Daughtery was the first-overall pick in the 1986 draft and a five-time All-Star who retired as the Cavaliers’ all-time leading scorer and rebounder.

Why isn’t Stewart included in the Charles D. Owens and Buncombe County Halls of Fame?

Bullpen still big area of need for Orioles

Mike Elias

The Orioles didn’t make any roster moves or hires yesterday. News didn’t break or leak.

The next important date is Dec. 7, the start of baseball’s Winter Meetings at the Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek. That’s a switch from the Swan and Dolphin hotel that’s hosted in past years.

Mike Elias will bring a shopping list that’s reminiscent of the one he carried to Nashville in 2023. He’s trying to find a couple of starting pitchers, with one of them worthy of high placement in the rotation, and he needs a closer.

The Corbin Burnes trade wasn’t finalized until Feb. 1, about two months after veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel signed a deal that paid $12 million and included a $1 million buyout and $13 million team option for 2025. He was designated for assignment Sept. 18 and released a week later.

Good first half, though.

Soliciting your Nats questions

Abrams and Wood celebrate

Happy Black Friday, everyone! It's time to put together your holiday shopping lists, and that includes what you'd like to receive from the Nationals this winter. What are you wishing for? A slugger? An ace? A fundamentally sound ballclub?

Beyond that, what questions do you have about the franchise as the Hot Stove League begins to heat up? Let's take this opportunity to field your inquiries, though there's a twist this time.

I usually respond to reader questions as they come in over the course of a morning. But because I'm busy with family today, I'm actually going to compile the best questions you submit today and then answer them in a new post that will be published Saturday morning. It's the first-ever two-day Q&A.

So take your time, think up your best questions, submit them in the comments section below and then check back Saturday for the answers!

For Nationals, a Thanksgiving of change

Blake Butera and Paul Toboni

For most, Thanksgiving is a time for the familiar. For traditions, whether that comes in the form of the food we eat, the family members and friends we gather with, the football games and parades we watch. It’s the ultimate comfort holiday.

For the Nationals, this Thanksgiving is all about the unfamiliar.

Think about it. For the first time in 17 years, there’s a brand-new person in charge of baseball operations. For the first time in eight years, there’s a brand-new person in charge of the major league team. There are tons of new people working underneath both of those leaders. And we expect there to be a decent number of new players taking the field come Opening Day 2026.

So, instead of celebrating familiar traditions today, perhaps it’s time we all embraced change. Instead of turkey, how about serving lasagna for dinner? Instead of pumpkin pie, how about chocolate cake for dessert? And instead of football, how about watching old reruns of the 2019 World Series?

Not ready for that kind of dramatic change quite yet? OK, fair enough. Change can be difficult. And maybe it’s best to take baby steps, not giant leaps all at once.

Some reasons on this day to be thankful

Kyle Bradish

The Orioles have two openings on their 40-man roster and incentive to improve the depth in their farm system. They aren’t obligated to shut down over the holiday. Business as usual isn't banned.

They made three moves on Thanksgiving 2024, none of which garnered much attention except to briefly interrupt dinners or the cleanup afterward. Infielder Jeremiah Jackson, left-hander Raúl Alcantara and outfielder Franklin Barreto agreed to minor league deals.

Alcantara was released from Double-A Chesapeake’s roster in early August without appearing in a game. Barreto was released on Aug. 31 and still hasn’t played in the majors since 2020.

Jackson turned out to be worth the fuss that wasn’t made for him. He appeared in 48 games with the Orioles, batted .276/.328/.447 with 10 doubles, two triples, five home runs and 21 RBIs, and has a chance to break camp next spring in a utility role.

Having him in the organization is one reason for the club to be thankful. Today seems like the appropriate time to mention five others.

Orioles hire Shildt for player development role, Vega changing titles

Mike Shildt

In the latest unexpected development in the offseason, former Padres manager Mike Shildt is joining the Orioles to work in player development.

According to a source, Shildt has been hired as upper-level minor league coordinator of instruction. Samuel Vega is going from Latin American coordinator of instruction to lower-level coordinator of instruction.

Shildt, 57, announced his retirement last month after managing the Padres to back-to-back playoff appearances, saying "the grind of the baseball season has taken a severe toll on me mentally, physically and emotionally."

The news came nine days after the Cubs eliminated the Padres in the National League Wild Card series.

Shildt compiled a 183-141 record as manager in San Diego. The Padres won 90 games this season.

Wood, Abrams, Lile earn pre-arbitration bonuses

CJ Abrams and James Wood celebrate

Three young Nationals players have been financially rewarded for their performances this season, qualifying for Major League Baseball’s “pre-arbitration bonus pool” payments.

James Wood, CJ Abrams and Daylen Lile all earned bonus checks, according to the Associated Press, which reported the dollar figures for 101 players who have fewer than three years of MLB service time and are not yet eligible for arbitration.

MLB and the MLB Players Association instituted this program in the collective bargaining agreement that covers the 2022-26 seasons as a path toward paying the sport’s best young players more than the near-league-minimum salaries they generally receive.

A total pool of $50 million, with contributions from all 30 clubs, is divvied up among the qualifying players. The top bonuses go to those who either win or finish runner-up for major awards like MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. Any money remaining in the pool then goes to the 100 pre-arbitration players who produced the highest combined WAR.

Wood received the largest bonus among the Nationals’ three qualifiers, earning $424,544 on top of his $764,600 salary. The 23-year-old outfielder made his first career All-Star team and participated in the Home Run Derby after a torrid first half to his season. He slumped after the break but still finished with 38 doubles, 31 homers, 94 RBIs, an .825 OPS and a combined 7.0 WAR between Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs’ formulas.

Because You Asked - Endgame

Coby Mayo

We’re a day away from Thanksgiving gluttony and I’ve got a mailbag that’s already stuffed.

You ask, I answer and we have the latest sequel to the beloved 2009 original. That’s right, 2009. You can look it up if you navigate the internet better than me.

The only editing here is to remove the Jell-O salad that your crazy aunt insisted on bringing again.

Also, my mailbag carves the turkey at the head of the table and your mailbag sit at the kids' table.

Who is more likely to be traded, Ryan Mountcastle or Coby Mayo? And no “hold the Mayo” jokes.
I’m better than that. Mountcastle is a trade candidate because of a projected salary around $8 million, past health issues, a decline in production, and a market that exists for him. Mayo would be a big prospect piece in a potential deal. Both are possibilities, but if I have to rank them I’d say Mountcastle is more likely to go as a pending free agent. The reason why Mayo enters the conversation is because the Orioles would have to dip into that prospect pool in order to trade for an ace. He used to be untouchable but that might not be the case anymore. I’m not saying that he’s being shopped, just that there might be more of a willingness to listen.

Taylor Ward (not that one) on Taylor Ward (that one)

Taylor Ward

“I live in a small town, and to avoid dealing with ex girlfriend’s moms, they go ‘oh do you still play for the Angels,’” Taylor Ward said with a laugh. “And I say ‘yeah, sure, yeah.’ So now, it’s one of those ‘oh hey, you just got traded to Baltimore!’” 

He had, of course, not been traded to the Orioles. That would be quite a career shift for Ward, who has been covering the Angels for Baseball America since 2013. 

Instead, it was a player that he had covered for a long time in Anaheim, Joseph Taylor Ward, who goes by Taylor, that had been sent to Baltimore in exchange for Grayson Rodriguez. 

“We actually played baseball against each other a long time ago, high school days,” Baseball America’s Ward said of the new O’s outfielder. “His introduction after getting drafted, the PR Director was introducing him in the Angels’ media room and said ‘we’re going to start our questions with Taylor Ward.’ And I said ‘hey Taylor,’ and he looked at me and it was one of those connections of like ‘we’ve met before but where have we met.’ And I said ‘I’m Taylor Ward,’ and he said ‘I’m Taylor Ward,’ and it was an old connection that kind of came to fruition.” 

The duo, a reporter and a player sharing the same name, were the center of plenty of jokes in the clubhouse and on social media. So, on the day when the outfielder was traded, you can imagine what the day was like for the reporter. 

Where do the Nats turn for better production at first base?

Josh Bell

Though they certainly intend to add more players from outside the organization this winter, the Nationals could theoretically field an Opening Day lineup comprised solely of players already on the 40-man roster and compete.

Except for one position.

While there are enough players to fill out the outfield (James Wood, Dylan Crews, Jacob Young) and have a leftover guy to serve as designated hitter (Daylen Lile), as well as three infield spots (Brady House, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr.) and a catcher (Keibert Ruiz), there really isn’t anybody viable in place to handle first base.

Andres Chaparro is the only true first baseman on the 40-man roster at the moment, and his contributions through the first 67 games of his major league career include a .203 batting average, .358 slugging percentage, five homers, 20 RBIs, a .627 OPS and minus-0.4 bWAR. Not exactly the guy you want to pencil into the heart of your lineup for March 26 at Wrigley Field.

So, while there certainly are other items on Paul Toboni’s wish list this winter, a first baseman would probably need to be high on that list.

Ward wants leadership role in Orioles' clubhouse

Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward is about three weeks away from celebrating his 32nd birthday and four months from the start of his ninth major league season. He’s changing his address from Anaheim to Baltimore but keeping the responsibilities that come with age and experience.

None of the Orioles’ hitters bring as much of it except for outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who’s only 30 but also made his debut in 2018. Ward was chosen 10 picks ahead of Ryan Mountcastle in the first round of the 2015 draft, but the homegrown first baseman is entering his seventh season and is 28.

Reliever Keegan Akin, awaiting his 31st birthday on April 1 and with six major league seasons, inherited a leadership role in the bullpen after the deadline trades.

Ward will tackle the job with the same enthusiasm that he brings as a middle-of-the-order bat and left fielder.

“Yeah, absolutely,” he said yesterday during his video call with the media. “Even with the Angels having a young core that they have right now, too. Yeah, anything that they need, any questions that they have, I’m absolutely available to tell them how I do things and just try to educate them the best I can to just speed up their development.

Ward: "This team’s definitely capable of making a deep playoff run and I’m excited to join that”

GettyImages-2241205318

Taylor Ward’s phone rang around 8 p.m. Tuesday, he checked the name of the caller and saw that Angels general manager Perry Minasian was trying to contact him.

Ward had always prepared himself for the possibility of a trade, and now, Minasian randomly was on the other end of the line.

“Obviously,” he said today in a video call, “there’s been rumors for years now.”

The chatter apparently didn’t cause him to make any assumptions that night, to come away as anything except surprised when told that the Orioles acquired him for starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez.

“Our conversation was pretty brief, but just told me that I was traded to Baltimore and he appreciated everything that I had done with the Angels and wished me luck. But had no idea,” Ward said.

Are the Nationals proceeding with their catching corps as-is?

Keibert Ruiz

The Nationals’ decision to tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players Friday was something of a surprise. Given the new regime now running baseball operations, it stood to reason there would be at least one or two non-tenders, signaling a desire to make at least some changes to the roster this group inherited.

President of baseball operations Paul Toboni went a step further, though, when he also agreed to terms with Riley Adams on a 2026 contract, avoiding arbitration. Adams’ salary isn’t known yet, but that move all but solidified his return next season, which would seem to say a lot about the state of the organization’s catching corps.

Adams, 29, had another difficult season at the plate. While playing a career-high 83 games and taking a career-high 286 plate appearances, he batted only .186 with a career-worst .308 slugging percentage. He did show improvement on the defensive side of things, but his offensive production was down from each of the last two seasons despite far more opportunities for playing time than he had ever received.

Bringing back Adams for something in the range of $1 million-$1.5 million isn’t that noteworthy of a move. What is noteworthy is what this decision suggests about Toboni’s overall view of the catching position.

Adams is a perfectly capable backup, one who typically has caught about 40-45 games per season while Keibert Ruiz started the other 115-120 games. But Ruiz played only 68 games this season, only two after June 23, when he was struck in the head by a foul ball while watching from the dugout at San Diego’s Petco Park.

Wondering how Orioles will arrange infield and some mailbag leftovers for breakfast

Jeremiah Jackson

The Orioles’ pitching staff is incomplete, with additions sought for the rotation and bullpen. Mike Elias traded for an outfielder but might want another option in center. He also has indicated that he could target a big bat.

Nothing much is said about the infield besides the decision to tender Ryan Mountcastle a contract.

Ramón Urías was used in a utility role until the deadline trade to Houston, which designated him for assignment last week. The Orioles designated Luis Vázquez for assignment on Tuesday, but he stays in the organization after clearing waivers yesterday and accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk.

Vázquez will come to spring training after appearing in 32 games and going 8-for-50. He’s a plus defender at shortstop and maybe the best emergency reliever in history with four scoreless appearances with three hits allowed over 4 1/3 innings.

Got to be in the top 10 at least, right? Maybe he should close.

More on Orioles' outfield plans, a third catcher and coaching staff

Colton Cowser

The 17-minute video call with president of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias confirmed that he isn’t necessarily done with the outfield. He’s got the numbers but also a willingness to work them.

Seven outfielders are stashed on the 40-man roster, including Reed Trimble, who was added to protect him in the Rule 5 draft. He’s expected to head back to Triple-A Norfolk and wait for a phone call.

Heston Kjerstad could join him after a lengthy shutdown caused by an undisclosed illness. He hit .192/.240/.327 in 54 games with the Orioles and .149/.225/.248 in 27 games with the Tides. The Orioles would settle for getting him back on the field and continuing their work with him at the plate and in right and left.

An Opening Day roster with Taylor Ward, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Beavers and Leody Taveras would suffice. Cowser could start in center, with the capability of moving to a corner late in games. Taveras could replace him. Ward could be the regular in left, with O’Neill and Beavers making most of their starts in right.

Taveras signed for $2 million but he’s out of minor league options, which could complicate matters. He’d have to pass through waivers – the contract could make it easier - and approve an outright assignment.