A very different Nats club returns to San Diego for Winter Meetings

davey and rizzo sitting

When last the baseball world gathered in San Diego for the Winter Meetings, the Nationals were the talk of the town. The defending World Series champions not only were basking in the glow of their recent title, they also found themselves right in the thick of two of the biggest free agent races of that offseason, ultimately re-signing Stephen Strasburg while watching Anthony Rendon leave for the Angels.

Three years later, the baseball world gathers again this week in San Diego for the first full-fledged Winter Meetings since the 2019 version. The pandemic wiped out the planned 2020 event. The lockout wiped out the 2021 version.

Aside from the location, this one will bear zero resemblance to the last one for the Nationals.

As they prepare to gather at the Manchester Grand Hyatt, the Nats are coming off a 107-loss season, not a World Series title. They’re probably not in the market for any major free agents, let alone two of them. The biggest news they might make this week could come in Tuesday’s inaugural draft lottery or Wednesday’s annual Rule 5 draft.

Oh, how times have changed.

Carter Kieboom conundrum is now more complicated

kieboom dugout fives gray

The first additions the Nationals made to the major league roster this offseason seem to be solid pickups. On Tuesday, they signed veteran third baseman Jeimer Candelario to a one-year, $5 million deal and added outfielder Stone Garrett on a league-minimum major league contract.

With his price tag and veteran experience, Candelario presumably will be the starting third baseman heading into spring training, while Garrett will compete for a spot on the roster as a depth piece.

Candelario figured to be a depth piece, as a switch-hitter who can play both third and first base, when the deal was first reported. But the Nats, in their current state, wouldn’t commit $5 million, plus another $1 million in incentives, to a potential backup in 2023.

That means Ildemaro Vargas becomes the versatile backup infielder, who can play all over the infield and maybe even the corner outfield spots in an emergency. Jake Alu, who was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from next week’s Rule 5 draft, will try to make the team out of spring training, but will likely start next season trying to build on his .323/.372/.553 slash line from this year at Triple-A Rochester.

So where does that leave Carter Kieboom?

Nats create two more openings on 40-man roster

Josh Palacios swinging gray

This week’s signings of Jeimer Candelario and Stone Garrett left the Nationals with a full 40-man roster. Knowing more acquisitions are likely to come at next week’s Winter Meetings, they knew they’d need to clear some more roster spots.

The Nats took care of that Thursday, announcing outfielders Yasel Antuna and Josh Palacios each cleared waivers and was outrighted to the minors. That removed both players from the 40-man roster, leaving two open slots heading into the Winter Meetings.

Both Antuna and Palacios seemed to be on thin ice heading into the offseason, with both players in danger of losing their roster spots last month when the Nationals needed to add several players to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Though they both survived that round of cuts, they didn’t survive this one.

Antuna has been regarded as one of the organization’s better offensive prospects since he was signed out of the Dominican Republic in July 2016 for a hefty $3.9 million. But outside of a strong 2017 debut in rookie ball in which he batted .301/.382/.399, he hasn’t been able to hit consistently in the minors. Over the course of five professional seasons spanning 1,548 plate appearances, Antuna owns a .231/.329/.358 slash line with 65 doubles, 30 homers and 157 RBIs.

The Nationals hoped a position switch this year might help after Antuna was charged with 36 errors in only 96 games at shortstop in 2021. But even playing with less defensive pressure as an outfielder this season, he still struggled at the plate.

Thursday morning Nats Q&A

nats park tarp

The Hot Stove is finally starting to percolate a bit. The Nationals have made their first two major league acquisitions of the offseason (corner infielder Jeimer Candelario, outfielder Stone Garrett). The Winter Meetings begin Sunday in San Diego, with the brand-new MLB Draft Lottery and the traditional Rule 5 Draft of particular importance this year.

We've even got a brand-new offseason show set to debut on MASN: Watch "The Hot Stove Show" Fridays at 9:30 p.m., co-hosted by Brendan Mortensen and yours truly. We'll have news, analysis and interviews with club personnel and players every week.

This morning, though, we've got another version of the Q&A. Hopefully, there's no shortage of topics you're interested in, so please submit your questions in the comments section below, then check back throughout the morning for my replies ...

Nats sign third baseman Candelario, outfielder Garrett (updated)

Jeimer Candelario Tigers throw white

The Nationals made their first major league acquisitions of the offseason today, signing free agent Jeimer Candelario to a one-year deal to add an experienced third baseman coming off a rough season to a lineup that needs plenty of added production, then signing power-hitting outfielder Stone Garrett to a major league deal.

Candelario contract guarantees the 29-year-old a $5 million salary, with another $1 million available in incentives, according to the New York Post's Jon Heyman. Garrett, who appeared in 27 games for the Diamondbacks after making his major league debut this summer, gets a league minimum deal but is under the club's control for six years.

A switch-hitter originally signed by the Cubs in 2010 as an amateur free agent, Candelario went to the Tigers in a July 2017 trade deadline deal that sent veterans Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Chicago. Over the ensuing six seasons, he hit .243 with 124 doubles, 65 homers, 245 RBIs and a .728 OPS.

Candelario peaked during the 2020-21 seasons, posting a combined slash line of .278/.356/.458 for a well-above-average OPS-plus of 125. He tied for the major league lead with 42 doubles to go along with 16 homers in 2021 and finished that season with 3.8 bWAR.

Candelario’s production dropped significantly this season, though. In 124 games, he batted just .217/.272/.361 with 19 doubles, 13 homers and 50 RBIs, his bWAR plummeting to 0.6. Entering his final year of arbitration and due to earn a raise from his $5.8 million salary, the Tigers chose not to tender him a contract at the Nov. 18 deadline, making him a free agent.

How Tuesday's additions fit into Nats' winter plans

stone garrett dbacks

The additions of Jeimer Candelario and Stone Garrett aren’t going to dramatically alter the Nationals’ 2023 lineup. The two players, signed as free agents Tuesday, aren’t big enough bats to turn one of the majors’ least-productive batting orders into one of the sport’s best.

What the signings do provide the Nats, though, are depth and options for manager Davey Martinez, especially in the case of Candelario.

The 29-year-old switch-hitter, non-tendered by the Tigers two weeks ago, is coming off a rough season in which he hit a weak .217 with 19 doubles, 13 homers, 50 RBIs and a .633 OPS. That’s roughly comparable to what the Nationals got from all of their third basemen in 2022: a .237 average, 26 doubles, 12 homers, 64 RBIs and a .613 OPS.

If the Nats get the 2022 version of Candelario, they will have wasted $5 million. If, however, they get anything resembling the 2020-21 versions of him, they’ll get a significant upgrade, not to mention a guy who doesn’t have to play exclusively at third base.

In those two previous seasons, Candelario hit .278 with a .356 on-base percentage, .458 slugging percentage and .814 OPS. On a 162-game basis – you have to do this to account for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign – he averaged 43 doubles, 19 homers and 77 RBIs. Do you think the Nats would take that? Uh, yeah.

Are any trades plausible for the Nats this winter?

GettyImages-1395946863

The last two seasons of Nationals baseball have been defined by one particular type of transaction: the trade.

From July 29, 2021 through Aug. 2, 2022, general manager Mike Rizzo made eight deals with other clubs, sending 11 veterans to contenders in exchange for 19 players (all but one of them prospects).

It’s not hyperbole to say those trades completely changed the complexion of the Nationals franchise. Gone were the likes of Juan Soto, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes and others. In were a host of potential young building blocks who remade a barren farm system and have begun to take over the major league roster, including Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Lane Thomas, Mason Thompson and more.

Now, Rizzo is attempting to supplement that new core group of youngsters with a few free agents who could help fill holes in the rotation and lineup. But is the free agent market his only path to address those needs?

Is it even possible for the Nats to make more trades this winter?

Where will Nationals' power come from next season?

GettyImages-1418602184

The Nationals were bad in a lot of ways this season. You don’t lose 107 games because of a deficiency in one single department. You lose that many games because of multiple problem areas.

And one of the Nats’ most notable problems in 2022 was a lack of power. Like, a complete lack of power.

They hit only 136 home runs, fewest in the National League. That represented the team’s lowest total for any scheduled 162-game season since 2008, when they finished with a league-worst 117 homers.

The Nationals hadn’t resided anywhere close to the bottom of the league in all the years since. Only once did they rank 10th in the NL, and that came during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. From 2011-19, they always ranked in the top half of the league in homers, and five times ranked among the top four power-hitting teams in the NL.

Suffice it to say, they’re going to need to improve in this area next season if they’re going to make some real strides in their rebuilding efforts.

Bullpen has high upside at low cost

Erasmo Ramirez throws gray

For the first time in a long time, the bullpen was the Nationals’ biggest strength this season.

After so many years (in which they did win, I might add) of trusting unproven closers and acquiring top relief pitchers through trade deadline deals, general manager Mike Rizzo constructed a bullpen mostly through waiver claims and minor league deals that proved to be more than adequate for manager Davey Martinez.

Nine of the 11 relievers with at least 23 appearances out of the ‘pen produced a FanGraphs WAR of 0.1 or better. Only Andres Machado (51 appearances, -0.1 fWAR) and Steve Cishek (69 appearances, -0.3 fWAR) were left out of the bullpen’s top 10 in fWAR, which includes Sean Doolittle’s 0.3 in just six appearances.

Looking even further, they produced some impressive numbers.

Kyle Finnegan posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.140 WHIP with 11 saves in 66 ⅔ innings over 66 games. Carl Edwards Jr. had a 2.76 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 62 innings over 57 games. Erasmo Ramirez recorded a 2.92 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 80 ⅓ innings over 58 relief appearances en route to being named Nationals Pitcher of the Year. And Tanner Rainey had a 3.30 ERA, 1.300 WHIP and 12 saves before his season was cut short due to injury.

How the Nationals fared in the Arizona Fall League

Robert-Hassell-III-Wilmington-blue

There weren’t a lot of prominent Nationals prospects who participated in this year’s Arizona Fall League, and the most prominent of the lot appeared in only two games due to injury. So you’re forgiven if you didn’t pay much attention to the month-long showcase of top minor leaguers that wrapped up Nov. 12.

That’s what we’re here for: To provide a recap for you.

Of the 10 players the Nats sent to Arizona to join the Peoria Javelinas, only two appear on the organization’s top 30 prospects list compiled by MLB Pipeline, and wouldn’t you know it’s the guy at the top of the list and the guy at the bottom of the list.

No. 1 prospect Robert Hassell III was hoping to spend a month facing elite pitching and establishing his credentials for a possible big league debut sometime in 2023. But the 21-year-old outfielder, acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto blockbuster trade, played in only two games (he went 1-for-6 with an RBI) before a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist brought everything to a screeching halt.

Hassell had surgery to remove the bone, a fairly common procedure that typically carries a recovery time of 6-8 weeks. So there’s no real concern about him heading into spring training. But it’s still disappointing he didn’t get more of a chance to see how he stacked up against other top prospects.

Fedde and Romero latest examples of first-round failures

romero roughed up blue

The Nationals made a flurry of roster moves last week to begin the offseason, thanks to two deadlines. Earlier in the week, they had to remove players from the 40-man roster and add eligible prospects they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 draft. Then a week ago today, they needed to tender or non-tender contracts to their 10 arbitration-eligible players.

In all, they removed seven players from the 40-man roster (Tres Barrera, Francisco Pérez, Seth Romero, Yadiel Hernandez, Jackson Tetreault, Evan Lee and Tommy Romero) and added six Rule 5-eligible prospects (Jake Alu, Jeremy De La Rosa, Jackson Rutledge, Jake Irvin, Matt Cronin and Jose Ferrer). They then agreed to terms with Ildemaro Vargas on his 2023 salary, tendered seven contracts to arbitration-eligible players (Lane Thomas, Victor Robles, Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey, Tanner Rainey and Victor Arano) and non-tendered Erick Fedde and Luke Voit.

A lot of movement to keep track of in one week of the offseason.

Two of those moves, however, are the latest examples of an underlying issue the Nats have had in roster construction over the last decade. Fedde and Seth Romero are the newest names added to a growing list of failed first-round draft picks made under Mike Rizzo’s tenure as general manager.

Fedde was non-tendered in his second year of arbitration eligibility after parts of six seasons with the Nationals. He was the 18th overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft out of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (just days after having Tommy John surgery) with expectations of being a part of the big league rotation for years to come.

Searching for reasons Nats fans can be thankful this year

CJ Abrams Luis Garcia gray celebrate

Finding something to be thankful about the Washington Nationals this year? Seriously?

Yes, seriously.

Maybe it wasn’t the best year in Nationals history. OK, actually it was officially the worst season in Nationals history, with not only a club record 107 losses but the trade of Juan Soto, the continued injury woes of Stephen Strasburg and the pending sale of the franchise by the Lerner family.

But even with all that negativity, there are still some things to be thankful for right now, if you look hard enough.

Like a restocked farm system that no longer ranks among the worst in baseball. In particular, there’s some legitimate outfield depth in the organization now, from Robert Hassell III to James Wood to Elijah Green to Cristhian Vaquero to Jeremy De La Rosa.

Looking at hitters who could be on Nats' radar this winter

bell homers home blue

We noted the other day how the Nationals intend to pursue at least one starting pitcher this winter, trying to add some much-needed depth to what was baseball’s worst rotation this season. If that’s priority No. 1 over the next few months, priority No. 2 is the addition of a middle-of-the-order hitter.

Er, make that two middle-of-the-order hitters.

Last week’s decision to non-tender Luke Voit leaves the Nats with a couple of pretty big holes in the heart of their lineup. They already were going to need a corner outfielder after parting ways with Yadiel Hernandez. Now they’re going to need somebody to take Voit’s spot, whether that’s as designated hitter or first baseman.

Think of it this way: Between first base, left field and DH, the Nationals currently have one capable answer in Joey Meneses (who, it should be noted, is anything but a sure thing after only two months in the majors, no matter how impressive those two months were).

That’s two spots that need to be addressed, and there just don’t appear to be any viable in-house options, at least not anybody who could be trusted to play every day.

Werth among first-timers on 2023 Hall of Fame ballot

GettyImages-842672024

The Nationals have existed for 18 seasons now, but to date there’s only one Hall of Famer who played for them: Ivan Rodriguez.

And though 13 former Nats players have appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot, the vast majority of them were never really thought of as Nationals: Rick Ankiel, Brad Lidge, Matt Stairs, Aaron Boone, Paul Lo Duca, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Stanton, Royce Clayton, Vinny Castilla, Lenny Harris, Carlos Baerga and of course Jonathan Papelbon.

You can make a case for Adam Dunn and Livan Hernandez having made a name for themselves as Nationals, but Dunn still is thought of more as a Red and Hernandez is forever linked to the Marlins team he helped win a World Series title.

This year, though, we finally get a legitimate former National on the Hall of Fame ballot: Jayson Werth.

Though he debuted with the Blue Jays and Dodgers, then won a championship with the Phillies, Werth wound up spending the entire second half of his career in Washington. He’s fifth all-time in games played (808), plate appearances (3,427), hits (781) and RBIs (393) for the Nationals, fourth in runs scored (450), sixth in home runs (109).

A preliminary look at the free agent pitching market

GettyImages-1428552893-1

Though there’s been a bit of movement on the free agent market elsewhere, we’re still in the preliminary stages of the offseason around here. The Nationals have yet to add anybody to the fold, focusing instead on which players to add to their 40-man roster and which players to remove from the equation.

But now that they’ve completed those tasks, it’s fair to wonder when they’ll start moving onto free agency and addressing a handful of significant needs. (It’s also fair to wonder if they’ll be able to address any of those needs while the club is still for sale, but we’ve already raised that question and there’s not much more to say about that for now.)

So let’s proceed as if Mark Lerner has given Mike Rizzo the green light to spend some money this winter. Not gobs of money, but enough money to fill roster holes with actual free agents, not just bargain-basement pickups.

The Nationals have multiple needs. We’ll focus today on a particularly important one: starting pitching.

The 2022 rotation ranked dead-last in the majors in ERA (5.97) by a longshot, last in WHIP (1.563), last in walks per nine innings (3.76), last in strikeouts per walk (1.97), last in homers allowed (161). It’s hard to believe they finished with the majors’ worst record as well, isn’t it?

With change occurring elsewhere, Nats remain stable for now

Mike Rizzo

Stability in baseball is a rare thing. It’s rare in the clubhouse. It’s rare in the manager’s office. And it’s certainly rare in the front office, where heads of baseball operations routinely find themselves under pressure to create success and then sustain it.

When Mike Rizzo took over as general manager in 2009, the Nationals had no stability. The Lerner family was only in its third year of ownership. Likewise for Stan Kasten, the team’s president. Jim Bowden had just resigned amid a Latin American prospect scandal. Manny Acta, who replaced Frank Robinson as manager in 2007, was on the hot seat and would be fired during the All-Star break.

A whole lot has changed since then, in both good and bad ways. What hasn’t changed is the man still in charge of baseball operations.

Come spring training, Rizzo will be entering his 15th season as GM. In his line of work, that’s an eternity.

And at this point, hardly anyone else in baseball has been in that position as long.

Could Nationals add two big bats to lineup now?

Luke Voit swing cherry blossom

On a certain level, the Nationals’ decision Friday night not to tender a contract to Luke Voit made sense. They never coveted the 31-year-old in the first place. He was simply a player added to last summer’s haul of prospects in the Juan Soto-Josh Bell deal with the Padres because the Nats needed one actual big leaguer who could finish out the season with them.

Voit wasn’t going to be part of the Nats’ long-term plan, so why spend $8 million or so via arbitration to bring him back?

That’s all sound logic, except for the end result of all this: The Nationals now need to acquire two more bats this winter, and there’s a good chance it’ll cost them more than $8 million to find somebody at least as productive as Voit.

At this early stage of the offseason, we can probably safely name six of the projected nine members of the Opening Day 2023 lineup: Keibert Ruiz behind the plate, Joey Meneses at first base (or maybe left field), Luis García and CJ Abrams in the middle infield, Victor Robles in center field and Lane Thomas in right field.

Third base will be up for grabs, with Carter Kieboom attempting to return from Tommy John surgery, Ildemaro Vargas returning after a surprisingly productive couple of months to end the season and Jake Alu now on the 40-man roster after putting up some shockingly good numbers at Triple-A Rochester.

Nationals non-tender Voit, Fedde, Romero before deadline

Luke Voit-Nationals

The Nationals parted ways with Luke Voit, Erick Fedde and Tommy Romero this evening, electing not to tender contracts to one of the players they acquired in this summer’s blockbuster trade with the Padres and their 2014 first-round pick after underwhelming seasons.

The club did tender contracts before tonight’s 8 p.m. deadline to their seven other remaining arbitration-eligible players: Lane Thomas, Victor Robles, Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey, Tanner Rainey and Victor Arano.

The Nats could still choose to re-sign Voit or Fedde if either is willing to return at a salary figure lower than they would’ve received through the arbitration process, such reunions are rare for players who aren’t attempting to come back from injuries.

Voit faced an uncertain future following his arrival in Washington as the lone experienced major leaguer the Nationals received along with five highly rated prospects from San Diego for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Though he couldn’t become a free agent until after the 2024 season, the 31-year-old wasn’t viewed as a piece to the organization’s long-term plans. And after he hit just .226/.308/.402 in 135 total games split between the two clubs, his stock fell.

With a projected salary of $8.2 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, Voit would’ve been among the Nationals’ highest-paid players next season. If he performed up to his earlier career standards, that would’ve been a bargain. But if he duplicated this year’s numbers, it would’ve felt excessive.

How long until a National contends for a BBWAA award again?

Davey Martinez dugout red

Awards Week wraps up tonight with the announcement of the two leagues’ MVP winners, and you’re forgiven if you haven’t been paying attention to this stuff. Because, really, why would you this year?

Unless some rogue writer gave Joey Meneses a 10th place MVP vote, the Nationals will have been shut out entirely from discussion about the four major awards handed out annually by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America: Most Valuable Player, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. Not a single member of the team will have received a vote on anybody’s ballot for any of the awards (unless you want to count Juan Soto or Josh Bell, who spent four months in D.C. before they were traded to San Diego).

That simply hasn’t been the case around here in a very long time.

How long? Not since 2008 have the Nationals failed to receive at least one down-ballot vote for National League MVP. In fact, at least two players had received votes each of the last six years, with three or more players receiving votes in three of those years.

The Nats have had only one actual MVP in their existence: Bryce Harper, the unanimous selection in 2015 despite the team’s disappointing record. But they’ve always found themselves in the discussion, with top-three finishes in several other years and almost always at least one top-10 finisher.

The ramifications of Tuesday's roster moves

GettyImages-1418844598

Tuesday wound up a busy day for the Nationals, who added six players to the 40-man roster, dropped four others and announced a couple more transactions to boot.

Here are some more thoughts on what transpired …

* The decision to outright Yadiel Hernandez to Triple-A Rochester might be a tip-off to more decisions that will be coming in the days and weeks to come.

The Nats clearly felt Hernandez wasn’t in their Opening Day 2023 plans, but that does still leave left field a major question mark. Are they going to enter spring training with only Alex Call and Josh Palacios in the mix out there? No. They’re going to have to go out and get somebody with a track record. Either that, or they could move Joey Meneses to left field and look for a first baseman, if they think there’s more of a market there.

Regardless of Meneses’ eventual position, the Nationals know they need to fill a middle-of-the-order hole now. And because you’d think they probably don’t want to create a second hole for a similar bat, you have to think Luke Voit is on solid footing.