Is this free agent pitcher a good fit for the Orioles?

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Now that the World Series is over, the hot stove season has just about arrived. Soon we’ll be hearing and reading rumors of potential trades and free agent acquisitions. The hot stove season can garner about as much interest as the regular season.

If the Orioles look to dip into the free agent pool and don’t want to dive into the deep end but yet get a difference-maker, I can see one out there. And this is based off salary projections from an article this week in the New York Post.

Pitchers that could be out of the Orioles' reach and/or comfort level and be in line for at least $100 million or close, per that article, are Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez.

But the outlet listed free agent right-hander Sonny Gray at a price tag that could be in the wheelhouse for the Orioles and a lot of other teams. The paper quoted expert No. 1 and expert No. 2, who I assume are front office execs in the sport. One projected that Gray would get a three-year deal worth $65 million and another put it at three years and $66 million.

Gray is coming off a fantastic year with the Minnesota Twins during which he went 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 184 innings over 32 starts. He ranked second in the American League and third in the majors in ERA, and was fourth in the AL in average against (.226), third in OPS (.607 behind Kyle Bradish at .605) and fifth in groundball rate.

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The pitchers had a solid season, and it got better in the second half

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In one sense it was a bit unexpected that an O’s pitching staff that performed so well in the second half of the 2023 season would perform poorly in the playoffs. But they gave up 21 runs as Texas swept the Orioles in three games. They gave up 18 in the last two games as starters Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer combined to allow 11 runs in 3 1/3 innings.

Texas is a good hitting team, but Orioles pitchers seemed to be hitting their stride the longer the season went on. This time Texas got the better of them.

For the 2023 season, the O’s team ERA was 3.89 to rank fifth-best in the American League. Baltimore was just a few points behind third-place Tampa Bay's 3.86 and a bit further back of first-place Minnesota's 3.74.

In the first half of the season Orioles pitching went 54-35 (.607) with a 4.15 ERA. In the second half the staff went 47-26 (.644) with a 3.58 ERA of 3.58 that was first in the AL and third in the major leagues. The O's played at a 104-win pace after the All-Star game.

The O’s team ERA by month in 2023:

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Is there a lesson for the Orioles from the 2023 postseason results?

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Major League Baseball moved to a 12-team playoff field, six from each league, for the 2022 season. We have just two years under the new format.

But after the Orioles pushed so hard and worked so hard for so long to hold off Tampa Bay and win the AL East, they would join three other teams that had five days off getting byes in the wild card round, by losing in the Division Series.

In two years under this format, teams that won 100 or more games have gone 1-5 in the Division Series. 

Last year the top seeds were Houston and the New York Yankees in the AL and Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL. They went a combined 2-2 in the Division Series.

This year the top seeds were Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta and the Dodgers and they went 1-3 in the DS. 

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For Ryan Mountcastle, it was a tale of two seasons in 2023

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The 2023 season got off to a good start for the Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle. But it didn’t stay that way. On April 11 at Camden Yards, he tied a team single-game record with nine RBIs versus the Athletics. He homered twice in the game and hit a grand slam. An Oriole with nine RBIs had happened before just twice since the team moved to Baltimore in 1954. Jim Gentile drove in nine runs May 9, 1961 at Minnesota. And Eddie Murray did the same on Aug. 26, 1985 at California.

“Two greats,” Mountcastle told reporters that night of the first nine-RBI game in the majors since 2020. “To tie them in, I guess, any category is super special, pretty cool.”

So that was a special game and Mounty looked prime to have a big year.

And then he struggled and struggled some more. In early June, we learned he was dealing with the effects of vertigo, and he didn’t play again until July 9. When he took the field that day, he was batting .227 for the year with an OPS of .686.

Fans were not only questioning his presence in the lineup daily but also his future on the team in the long term. His critics seemed vast and were loud. When the season ended, we heard the sounds of mostly silence.

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First offseason edition: A few questions for O's fans

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Yes, it is the first time this offseason that we put some specific questions your way. Every day here is an open forum for topics on the Orioles. Today we get a bit more specific about it.

It was quite the season for Birdland in 2023. And while there is disappointment with the playoffs still going on without Baltimore, there is plenty of optimism for more winning in the future.

The O's went 101-61 to finish with the second-best record in the majors and best record in the American League for the first time since 1997. The 101 wins tied the 1971 Orioles for fourth-most in club history. The O's posted back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2013-2014. The Orioles won their 10th AL East title.

“It was a really successful season," said manager Brandon Hyde at his season-ending press conference. "You know, overcoming so many odds and obstacles that were against us and so many people thinking that we weren’t going to be a playoff team. Then all of a sudden we win 101 games and the American League East. That says a lot about a lot of people in the organization and the guys in our clubhouse. So, really proud of that.

“We had so many awesome moments. Huge wins. And close wins. And the amount of close games we played was ridiculous. And how we won some games during the season, it was just a total team effort, and that was how we played all year. The postseason, we just didn’t play our best and ran into a little bit of a buzz saw, but I’m going to have great memories of this team.”

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MLB Network analyst talks about possible winter plan for the Orioles

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One thing that has been true about fans throughout Birdland for a long time: They love it when national media reporters and outlets say nice things about their team, and some get really hacked when they do not. Or say something perceived as a slight.

My opinion is that MLB Network was on the O’s bandwagon pretty much throughout the 2023 season. The coverage was extensive and they were bullish on the Orioles just about from the start to the end of the season.

That continues even after the Orioles got swept three in a row by Texas in the American League Division Series.

A theme about the Orioles is that the team is just beginning its window to chase championships for the next few Octobers and maybe longer.

But on the network on Friday, former major league general manager Dan O’Dowd had a few suggestions for the Orioles to consider this winter. It will not come as a surprise that one of them is that the club should add to its major league roster by making deals from their fertile and No. 1-ranked farm system.

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Kyle Bradish's big season should earn him some AL Cy Young consideration

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For Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish, who pitched like an ace during the 2023 season, a key start along the way to doing that came on the West Coast in early June. He faced the San Francisco Giants. He would last just four innings and allow seven hits and three runs.

It was not a terrible start, but a short one, and it left Bradish with a 4.13 ERA after his first 10 starts of the season. Not a bad ERA at all, but it would get a lot better for him after that outing against the Giants.

“I'd say kind of the turning point was my outing in San Francisco," Bradish said before his start in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. "I had a rough inning and then got taken out in the fourth, and kind of there had a mindset shift. Just knowing that I can't keep doing that. It's hurting the bullpen, hurting the team. Just going out there, working for a quality start every time was kind of the mindset after that.”

The results that followed that start were stunning.

Over his last 20 games, he went 10-5 with a 2.31 ERA, a .191 batting average against, a .548 OPS allowed and 0.92 WHIP.

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Some rotation talk and other notes on season-ending press conferences

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When the Orioles went to a six-man rotation late in the season this year it proved to be pretty important. How much so? At his season-ending press conference yesterday manager Brandon Hyde didn't pull punches on it.

Said Hyde: “For me, when we decided to go to a six-man rotation, that possibly was a season-saver. Because I feel like all those guys, that was kind of crunch time a little bit. And, it allowed all those guys to get an extra day. And they showed what they could be like when they were rested, and I think it was the right thing to do for every one of them because they were flying over their innings (totals from the previous year) because they were pitching so well and we needed them. So, for me, that was a huge part of our season, when we made that decision at that point.

“I’m excited about our rotation going forward. I’m not sure what’s going to happen from a roster standpoint, but I know that we have some guys in there that had great experience this year and had really good seasons. And are still really young in their career. Just go back at what Tyler Wells did in the first half. And what he did the last week of the season. Unbelievable. Arguably, our best starting pitcher of the first half, and showed the stuff he had out of the bullpen a couple of years ago.

“Our starting pitching is up and coming. And I think they are only going to get better.”

The extra innings some pitchers threw this year and pitching into October should benefit this group next season, even if they gave up 13 runs in eight combined October innings in three playoff games.

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Hey, Birdland: Sometimes you just get beat

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Since Jordan Westburg struck out at Globe Life Field on Tuesday night and the Rangers' sweep of the Orioles in the American League Division Series became final, there have been a few opinions expressed as to why they lost, how they lost and what went wrong.

OK, not a few, but an avalanche of opinions. Just when you think you can’t possibly hear or read another take, there will be one. No shortage of opinions, ranging - in my own opinion - from very possible and pertinent to flat out crazy. Whackadoo territory.

But the thing about a sports opinion is that no one is 100 percent right or wrong or can be proven that. They are opinions and in a social-media, sports-talk, hot-take world, it seems everyone has one. Some express them in interesting ways too.

Theories of why the Orioles lost include:

Not enough playoff experience.

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A few quick thoughts as the Orioles lose Game 3 and get swept in the ALDS (updated)

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When it went south for the Orioles, it went fast. A 1-0 deficit turned into a 6-0 hole within a span of five pitches in the last of the second inning. The Texas Rangers were on their way to a three-game sweep of the Orioles in the American League Division Series.

After 101 wins and an AL East championship, a team that fought so hard and so well to win the division was out of the playoffs in a span of three games and over a span of four days.

It was a strong year during the regular season for AL East teams. But in the postseason the division is now a combined 0-7 and with no teams left.

Texas beat the Orioles 7-1 for its fifth straight postseason win. It was Baltimore's eighth straight postseason loss.

They may have let the AL West division title get away to end the regular season, but the Rangers have not lost in the postseason and have taken out the O’s and Rays.

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O's game blog: Facing elimination in Game 3 of the ALDS at Texas

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ARLINGTON, Texas - The Orioles must win tonight at Globe Life Field against the Texas Rangers or pack up the bats and balls for the 2023 season. It's Game 3 of the best-of-five American League Division Series with Texas holding a two-games-to-none lead.

The Orioles (101-61) fell behind 9-2 in the third inning Sunday in Baltimore. They rallied, but lost 11-8 after dropping a 3-2 game in the series opener.

This is just the second time in O's postseason history that they have lost the first two games of a series. The other time was in the 2014 AL Championship Series, and they were swept in four in a row by Kansas City.

The Orioles have an all-time postseason record of 52-42 and are 12-10 all-time in playoff series. But they have lost seven straight postseason games coming into Game 3. They are 11-7 all-time in ALDS games.

Texas (90-72) began this postseason with a six-game playoff losing streak, but now is 4-0 this postseason, by a combined 25-11 score against the Rays and Orioles.

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Even with a 2-0 lead it's "all hands on deck tonight" for Texas skipper Bruce Bochy

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ARLINGTON, Texas – Texas manager Bruce Bochy, who still has room on his hand for a fourth World Series ring, was asked today how he would manage tonight’s game. A game in which his team, leading 2-0 in the best-of-five American League Division Series, can close out the Orioles.

He sounded almost like his team was down 0-2 and not up 2-0.

“Well, all hands on deck,” said Bochy, who won championships with the Giants in 2010, 2012 and 2014. “I'll start with that. It's a short series. Best out of five. Yeah, we have a game, big game tonight. So, we'll use everybody. I think we've shown that already, and we'll continue to do that.

"Don't have a starter for tomorrow because of what I'm saying now. Bench, everybody, pinch-running situations, they'll all be used if I think it's the right thing to do tonight. That's my mentality. I think it's the team's mentality. Hey, be ready. Bullpen, all of them. Any situation.”

It was around this time last year – on Oct. 21, 2022 – that the Rangers hired Bochy, a winner of 2,003 games, out of a short retirement. He would take over a Rangers team that had six straight losing seasons (and just 68 wins last season) and try to get them back to the playoffs, and it happened right away. Bochy had stepped away after the 2019 season and 13 years with San Francisco. His first World Series win came over the Rangers, in five games in 2010.

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A few quick takes as the O's fall into an 0-2 hole in the ALDS

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The Orioles are now down 0-2 in this best-of-five American League Division Series. They had 101 wins in the regular season and won the AL East championship, but after today’s 11-8 loss to Texas, their season will be over with one more loss.

With the Orioles down 11-5 in the ninth, Aaron Hicks blasted a three-run homer off Texas closer Jose Leclerc. He drove in five runs today. But the pitching gave up 11. 

The Orioles have now lost seven straight postseason games since their last win in the 2014 ALDS versus Detroit. The Rangers are 4-0 in the 2023 playoffs. 

The Orioles face a must-win situation Tuesday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

A few thoughts on Game 2:

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O's game blog: Looking to get even in ALDS Game 2 at Oriole Park

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The Orioles (101-61), champions of the American League East and the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs, need a win today against the Texas Rangers (90-72) to even the AL Division Series.

Texas used six pitchers Saturday to hold the Orioles to five hits in a 3-2 win in the series opener. Andrew Heaney got the start, allowing one run in 3 2/3 innings, and Dane Dunning pitched two innings of relief to get the win. José Leclerc got the last three outs to record a save.

O's starter Kyle Bradish allowed two runs over 4 2/3 to take the loss. The O's six pitchers combined to strike out 16 batters, their most ever in a nine-inning postseason game.

The Orioles have now lost the first game of three straight playoff series dating to an opening win in the 2014 ALDS versus Detroit. They are now 52-41 all-time in postseason games and 11-6 in ALDS games.

Heading into this year's playoffs, Texas had a six-game postseason losing streak. Now they have gone 3-0 versus the Rays and Orioles by a combined 14-3 score. Their pitchers have allowed just the three runs on 19 hits in 27 innings for a postseason ERA of 1.00.

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DL Hall stayed on a roll in Game 1 and the O's challenge vs. Montgomery

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He ended the season getting a lot of big outs out of the Baltimore bullpen, and that continued through Saturday's Game 1 appearance versus Texas.

Late this year, in that relief role, lefty DL Hall looks very much like the top prospect he was coming up through the O's farm system.

In his last seven regular-season games, Hall pitched 7 1/3 innings, allowing one unearned run on just three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts. In that span, opponent batters hit just .115 off him with a .231 OPS.

Yesterday, in 1 2/3 innings, he did not allow a run or hit while recording one walk and three strikeouts.

For manager Brandon Hyde right now, the plan is simple: Get Hall the ball.

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Tyler Wells on playoff pressure: "It's controlled chaos"

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Tyler Wells doesn’t remember much about it now. But he once attended a Major League Baseball playoff game. He recalls it was in 2018 and it was at Dodger Stadium. He remembered going with his dad and that “Justin Turner did something cool, but I don’t remember what it was.”

Starting today he can make some of his own memories and take part in an MLB playoff game as the Orioles host Texas this afternoon to start the American League Division Series.

After 101 regular-season wins, the Orioles are three wins from reaching the AL Championship Series, seven wins from reaching the World Series and 11 from winning it.

For Wells, it’s a wonderful and exciting time, and one that was not guaranteed even a few weeks ago. He spent nearly two months in the minors. Coming out of the All-Star break he gave up 11 runs in nine innings over three starts and soon after found himself in Double-A Bowie and later Triple-A Norfolk. He finally returned to the O's active roster Sept. 22 and has thrown five hitless and scoreless innings upon his return to the majors.

“It’s incredibly special. I think it’s just made me a little more grateful,” said Wells. “To share the field with these guys and just enjoy it. It is hard to put into words how much appreciation I have for it.

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O's game blog: O's host Boston in Game No. 161

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And then there were two. Two games left in the 2023 regular season as the American League East champion Orioles (100-60) tonight host last-place Boston (77-83) in the third game of a four-game series at Oriole Park. 

The Orioles won their 100th game and clinched the division title with Thursday's 2-0 win. They lost to Boston 3-0 last night as they were held to three hits and blanked for the ninth time this season.

The Orioles offense has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six and six of the last nine games. Baltimore batters have scored eight runs over the last four games and 26 in the past nine. They have hit just three homers in those nine games.

In this series the Orioles are 7-for-55 (.127) with two doubles and one homer, scoring two runs and going 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position.

The loss Friday ended Baltimore's five-game win streak by a combined 15-3 score. Over longer stretches, the Orioles have still won nine of 13, 17 of 26 and 29 of the last 44 games.

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Some of the youngest Birds came up together to now win in Baltimore

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For some of the youngest Orioles, winning an American League East championship last night was something they had talked about when they were together on the farm. Then those players rose through the ranks in the minors and now are part of a 100-win team in Baltimore.

“That is what you dream of when you get drafted,” O’s 22-year-old rookie Gunnar Henderson said this afternoon. “You have good friends you go through the minors with, to come up relatively the same time and be on a winning team your first full year, you dream of it.”

I asked Henderson if there was a time in the minors when he looked around and thought the group of players he was with then could produce something special.

“Just felt like from all the pieces that were added over the years and the drafts that we’ve had, it’s been cool to see everyone buy in together," he said. "Everyone just wants to win. The work ethic that we have shows we want to play winning baseball. Even at the minor league level it seems all the teams are winning and doing well.

“It’s also about having good people. Never have run into anyone with a cocky attitude or that is hard to be around. It’s all just good people, and that makes for a good clubhouse. That allows everyone to go out there and play their best game. You can really enjoy playing the game and spending time with each other. That allows for great relationships and for us to play our best game.”

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O's notes on the final homestand, 800 runs, AL East play and more

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And then there were six. Six games remaining in the 2023 regular season. If the Orioles can just go 3-3 in those games, they can clinch the American League East title without any help from a Rays loss.

Three wins would also produce the sixth 100-win season in Orioles history. The 1969 team went 109-53 for the best O’s record ever in the regular season. The 1970 team was 108-54 with the 1979 club going 102-57. In 1971, the Orioles were 101-57. They were 100-62 in 1980.

The 1980 club was the last O’s team to win 100 games. And while the first four to do it all made the World Series, the 1980 Orioles, while they had the second-best record in the majors, did not even make the playoffs.

With their next win, No. 98, the 2023 Orioles would join seven other O’s clubs to win 98 or more games. The 1997 team was the last to win that many, going 98-64.

The O’s magic number is three as the final homestand begins tonight with two games versus the Nationals and four versus the Red Sox.

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O's game blog: Orioles play their final regular-season road game of 2023

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After picking up a huge 2-1 win on Saturday, the Orioles today play the final game of this series and this road trip, and the final away game of their 2023 regular season

Cleveland won the first two games of the series by 5-2 and 9-8, before the Orioles picked up a win on Saturday that kept them 1 1/2 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for first place in the American League East. The win reduced the O's magic number to win the division to five.

Anthony Santander had three hits and drove in both Baltimore runs while lefty John Means and two relievers teamed on a one-hitter. Means lost a no-hitter allowing a solo homer in the seventh and pitched 7 1/3 innings to improve to 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA. Yennier Cano and Cionel Pérez combined for the last five outs as Pérez picked up his third save.

The Orioles are 51-29 on the road and need a win today to tie the 1997 club for most wins and best win percentage in club history. That team went 52-29 on the road, playing .642 ball away from Baltimore. The 1980 O's won 50 road games, the 2023 club has 51 wins pending today's result and that 1997 club won 52.

The Orioles, who are 3-3 on this road trip, are 17-6-2 in road series this year.

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